
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government regularly highlights its success in dramatically reducing Amazon deforestation, and the achievement is real. October’s upcoming official annual data is projected to show the lowest deforestation rates since 2012.
However, while progress has been made in preventing tree removal, numerous other dangers—from climate shifts to upcoming legislative proposals—are threatening the rainforest. Forest degradation caused by wildfires, timber harvesting, and drought now impacts approximately 40% of the Amazon and has surpassed clear-cutting rates in recent years. These problems could intensify in 2026 with a powerful El Nino event, which brings warmer temperatures and reduced rainfall to the rainforest, creating conditions that worsen wildfire risks.
“Degradation is slower and more silent. It is like a chronic condition,” said Taciana Stec, a climate policy specialist at Talanoa, a Brazilian climate think tank.
Although the Amazon continues functioning as a carbon sink—meaning it captures enormous amounts of planet-warming carbon dioxide—it may reach a critical threshold where recovery becomes impossible. Once that point is crossed, the forest might release more CO2 than it captures.
Researchers warn that ongoing stress could cause a regional or ecosystem-wide breakdown. A 2024 study published in Nature projected that by 2050, anywhere from 10% to 47% of the Amazon could face conditions that might trigger such a catastrophic transformation.
The Amazon spans nine South American nations, with Brazil controlling the largest portion—over 60%—meaning developments in Brazil’s section can influence the entire forest system.
Brazil’s official annual deforestation measurements cover August through July periods. Early data from DETER, Brazil’s official satellite monitoring system that issues real-time warnings, indicates both deforestation and forest degradation have dropped considerably compared to last year.
Nevertheless, degradation continues exceeding deforestation rates. Between August 2025 and April 2026, deforestation warnings covered approximately 1,700 square kilometers (656 square miles), while degradation impacted roughly 4,420 square kilometers (1,706 square miles).
The DETER system delivers daily notifications to environmental officials about active deforestation—complete tree removal—and degradation, which involves areas where human activities have exposed soil without completely destroying the forest.
Throughout the 2023 and 2024 El Nino periods, temperatures climbed 2 to 4 Celsius (3.5 to 7 Fahrenheit) beyond the forest’s typical range. Combined with extreme drought, the heat sparked the Amazon’s most devastating wildfires in twenty years, with forest degradation accelerating at approximately three times the rate of deforestation decline.
The overall impact resulted in net rainforest losses that counteracted deforestation improvements, according to research by Guilherme Mataveli, a scientist at Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research, or INPE.
A deteriorated rainforest might remain upright but loses its ability to fully sustain the ecosystem. This vulnerability can worsen due to outside influences like El Nino. Consider the Amazon as a person suffering from chronic illness, with El Nino acting like influenza, causing fever that weakens the body further. Two years pass before the flu returns, but the patient hasn’t completely healed. The fever intensifies, and the sickness strikes more severely.
Evaluating forests in this condition represents relatively new territory for scientists, since detecting degradation through satellite imagery proves more challenging than identifying tree removal. However, they increasingly emphasize its extended and harmful consequences.
This emerging situation demands government focus on forest restoration, specialists argue. Brazil aims to restore 12 million hectares (29.7 million acres) of native Amazon forest by 2030, fulfilling commitments made under the 2015 Paris Agreement. The Environment Ministry reports that 3.4 million hectares (8.4 million acres) are currently undergoing rehabilitation.
Most importantly, the nation must maintain its deforestation reduction efforts, experts emphasize. However, a fast-tracked congressional bill threatens the primary mechanism that allowed Brazil to control deforestation.
The proposed legislation by lawmaker Lucio Mosquini would ban IBAMA, Brazil’s environmental enforcement agency, from penalizing landowners for illegal deforestation based exclusively on satellite surveillance—a cornerstone of the country’s environmental enforcement strategy.
Mosquini argues satellite-based penalties unfairly impact farmers by denying them opportunities to defend themselves. Officials counter that farmers can contest sanctions within 20 days and have them reversed by proving the deforestation was permitted.
IBAMA began using satellite data in 2016 to supplement field investigations and enhance deforestation monitoring in isolated regions. Former President Jair Bolsonaro’s government suspended this practice in 2019 during environmental deregulation efforts, leading Amazon deforestation to reach a 15-year peak in 2021. Under Lula, who resumed office in 2023 after serving as president from 2003-2010, the environmental agency restarted remote surveillance.
The proposal has awaited a vote in Congress’ lower chamber since March. Approval there would send it to the Senate. Given agribusiness’s status as the country’s most powerful economic sector and strongest congressional influence, political analysts anticipate passage.
Approval would constitute “a major environmental setback,” IBAMA president Jair Schmitt told The Associated Press. “In effect, you end up encouraging environmental offenders and unfair competition.”
Satellite technology assists environmental enforcement similarly to how speed cameras help traffic officials, Schmitt explained. Cities cannot position guards on every corner, just as the federal government cannot place agents throughout every square kilometer of rainforest.
In March, the government announced hiring 4,600 firefighters and launched real-time fire outbreak monitoring. Schmitt said officials have pinpointed rural properties with elevated fire risks by analyzing historical heat data alongside deforestation and weather information. Some property owners are receiving notifications requiring preventive action.
“The situation this year is worrying. We’re still in the rainy season, and we’ve already recorded two fires in April,” said Tainan Kumaruara, a member of the Indigenous volunteer Guardioes Kumaruara fire brigade, in the Kumaruara Indigenous land in Para state.
“The forest is different from what it was 10 years ago. It’s much drier. The trees no longer behave as they did,” she added.
In 2024, severe drought fueled major wildfire seasons that impacted over 17 million hectares (42 million acres) of rainforest, according to MapBiomas, a nonprofit monitoring land usage. Most Amazon wildfires result from human activity rather than natural causes.
Alongside these concerns, an April study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences provided additional insights into Amazon fire recovery patterns.
Yale University researcher Leandro Maracahipes, supported by Brazilian nonprofit Instituto Serrapilheira, conducted controlled burns at an Amazon research facility also experiencing drought conditions over 20 years to examine long-term impacts.
The research revealed that following repeated wildfires, the forest didn’t completely vanish or become savanna grassland as scientific models predicted. It remained rainforest but in degraded condition, featuring more open spaces and increased vulnerability, missing Amazon-specific species requiring dense coverage and particular conditions—plus time—for germination and growth.
“The forest is resilient, but our message is that we need to preserve it even more, and urgently,” Maracahipes said. “And it has to be now.”




























































































































































































