The World Meteorological Organization issued a warning Tuesday that a moderate to potentially strong El Niño weather pattern could elevate worldwide temperatures and heighten the likelihood of severe weather conditions in the months ahead.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño represents a cyclical warming of ocean surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that generally persists for nine to 12 months.
The agency reported that elevated ocean temperatures are fueling El Niño’s formation and projected temperatures above normal levels across most global regions from June through August. Officials expect the El Niño pattern will likely persist through November.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
Saulo noted that the previous El Niño occurrence during 2023-24 helped make 2024 the warmest year ever recorded.
The WMO documented changes in the Equatorial Pacific region, where ocean surface temperatures climbed sharply between late April and mid-May, indicating El Niño conditions were forming. The organization has recorded exceptionally warm underwater conditions throughout the tropical Pacific, with temperatures surpassing average levels by more than 6 degrees Celsius, establishing a heat reservoir that promotes surface warming.
This climate phenomenon disrupts regional weather systems and may deliver enhanced precipitation to southern South America, the southern United States, portions of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, while triggering dry conditions in Australia, central America, Indonesia, and areas of southern Asia. The pattern can also contribute to global warming effects and strengthen hurricanes across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, the WMO stated.
“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” said U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, calling for a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
The WMO noted that while climate change does not appear to increase how often or how intense El Niño events become, it can worsen related consequences including severe heat waves and intense rainfall.
