Category: Weather

After a stretch of bitter cold, temperatures across the Delmarva Peninsula are set to moderate back toward seasonal levels as we move into the middle of the week.

A shift in the upper-level pattern will allow warmer air to move into the region on Tuesday as high pressure slides offshore and a warm front crosses the area. This will bring daytime temperatures closer to average for mid-February, leading to some daytime thawing across Delmarva.

Despite the milder afternoons, overnight lows will continue to drop below freezing. This sets up repeated thaw-and-refreeze cycles, especially on untreated roads, sidewalks, and driveways. Tuesday night is expected to be the mildest night of the week, helped by southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front.

The warm front may also bring a chance for light wintry precipitation Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Any precipitation looks to be spotty and light, with overall chances remaining low, generally no higher than 20 percent. Impacts, if any, would be minor and localized.

A cold front will move through late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, shifting winds from the southwest to the west-northwest. Some brief, light precipitation cannot be ruled out with the frontal passage. Colder air becomes more noticeable later Wednesday as a secondary front moves through, bringing increasing west-northwest winds and a return to colder conditions for the second half of the week.

While temperatures will trend cooler again, this cold spell is not expected to be nearly as severe as the recent arctic outbreak.

Looking ahead to the weekend, another system may approach the region on Sunday. This could bring milder air along with rain or a mix of rain and wintry precipitation. Confidence remains low at this time due to significant uncertainty in the storm’s track and overall setup.

A fast-moving clipper system will bring a brief period of light snow to the Delmarva Peninsula tonight, before a powerful Arctic air mass surges into the region early Saturday. While snowfall amounts will remain minor, the combination of sharply falling temperatures, strong winds, and dangerous wind chills will create hazardous conditions through the weekend.

Light Snow This Evening Into Early Saturday

Snow will overspread Delmarva this evening as a clipper system passes north of the region. Snow is expected to begin during the evening hours and continue into the overnight period before tapering off early Saturday morning.

Most areas of Delaware, eastern Maryland, and the Virginia Eastern Shore can expect a coating to around one inch of snow. While widespread impacts are not anticipated, an isolated snow squall cannot be ruled out near daybreak Saturday, particularly along the Arctic front. Any squall that develops could briefly reduce visibility and create slick travel conditions, especially on untreated roads.

Snowfall totals are expected to remain below advisory criteria across the region.

Arctic Front Ushers in Brutal Cold

A strong Arctic cold front will move through Delmarva during the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Temperatures may briefly peak near midnight before falling rapidly into the teens and single digits by Saturday morning.

Behind the front, intense cold air advection will dominate the region. Daytime temperatures Saturday are expected to struggle, remaining in the teens and lower 20s with little improvement through the afternoon.

Strong Winds Increase Cold Stress

As Arctic high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and low pressure deepens offshore, a tight pressure gradient will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to strong northwest winds across Delmarva, sustained between 20 and 30 mph with gusts up to 50 or even 60 mph, particularly in coastal areas.

As a result, High Wind Warnings have been issued region wide in combination with extremely dangerous wind chills. Valid from 8am to 9pm EST Saturday.

Extreme Cold Warnings in Effect

Saturday night will bring the coldest conditions of the event. Overnight lows will fall into the single digits, with wind chills dropping to -10 to -25 degrees across much of Delmarva.

Because of the severity of the cold, Extreme Cold Warnings have been issued. This is part of a newer warning system introduced in October 2024, replacing the former Wind Chill Warning which is the first time ever issued throughout the Delmarva region. Even Wind Chill Warnings has never been issued for our region dating back prior to 2014. Under updated criteria, warning-level cold is now issued at lower thresholds to better reflect the health risks posed by extreme cold exposure.

Cold weather headlines are expected to continue into Sunday morning. Despite some sunshine Sunday afternoon, temperatures will remain bitterly cold, with highs only reaching the single digits to teens.

Safety Precautions Urged

Residents across Delmarva are urged to take precautions:

• Limit outdoor exposure and dress in multiple layers if going outside.
• Cover exposed skin to prevent frostbite.
• Secure loose outdoor items due to strong winds.
• Check on elderly neighbors and ensure pets have adequate shelter.
• Use heating sources safely and never run generators or grills indoors.

While snowfall will be limited, this Arctic outbreak will bring dangerous cold and wind to the Delmarva Peninsula, making preparation and caution essential through the weekend.

A massive and rapidly growing sunspot region on the Sun, designated Active Region 4366, has become one of the most energetic solar flare producers in recent years, unleashing a torrent of powerful bursts that have grabbed the attention of space weather scientists around the world.

Over the past several days, the Sun has emitted dozens of solar flares from AR 4366, including numerous M-class flares and several X-class eruptions, the strongest category of solar flare. Among these was an X8-class flare detected on February 1–2, one of the most powerful recorded so far in 2026 and the most intense event this year to date.

Solar flares occur when magnetic energy built up in the Sun’s atmosphere is suddenly released. X-class flares produce intense radiation and can interfere with Earth’s ionosphere, leading to temporary radio blackouts, degraded high-frequency communications, and navigation signal disruptions. The X8 event and subsequent strong blasts have already caused R3-level radio blackouts in parts of the South Atlantic region.

In addition to the X8-class flare, researchers have recorded other powerful eruptions, including a recent X4.2 flare from the same active region. In the past 24 hours alone, NOAA scientists observed dozens of flares from AR 4366, including at least 26 events ranging from moderate M-class to X-class strengths.

The sheer number and intensity of flares from this sunspot has led forecasters to describe AR 4366 as a “solar flare factory.” As it rotates further into a position more directly facing Earth, space weather agencies warn that any future coronal mass ejections (CMEs)which are huge clouds of charged particles launched from the Sun, would be more likely to intersect Earth’s magnetic field. Even glancing blows from CMEs can spark enhanced auroras, possibly visible at lower latitudes than usual later this week.

Scientists continue to monitor AR 4366 closely. Its increasing size and magnetic complexity make it capable of further strong eruptions, and forecasters expect more activity as the Sun remains near the peak of its current 11-year cycle. Solar flares and related space weather effects, from radio transmission disruptions to vivid auroral displays, may persist as long as the region remains active.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor update shows that the ongoing drought across the Mid-Atlantic remains a significant concern this winter, with dryness and drought conditions expanding and lingering across much of the region.

According to the most recent data from the U.S. Drought Monitor, released weekly by the National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA, and NOAA, areas of moderate drought (D1) and severe drought (D2) have grown in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, particularly across central Maryland and large portions of central Virginia. Moderate drought has also extended into southern Delaware and along portions of the Maryland and Virginia coasts. Meanwhile, abnormally dry conditions (D0) stretch across extensive portions of the region, indicating ongoing moisture deficits even where formal drought classifications are lighter.

Meteorologists and drought specialists note that this persistence of dryness is linked to persistent precipitation deficits in recent months, including well-below-normal rainfall and limited snow accumulation. These conditions have contributed to low soil moisture, suppressed streamflow levels, and challenges for water resources in watersheds throughout the Mid-Atlantic.

Although some pockets of the Northeast have seen isolated improvements due to recent precipitation, overall dryness remains widespread in the Mid-Atlantic. Without sustained rainfall or significant snowpack melt, these drought conditions could continue into the spring, potentially affecting agriculture, water supply, wildfire risk, and ecosystem health.

…HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING… …EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING…

* WHAT…For the High Wind Watch, northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible. For the Extreme Cold Watch, dangerously cold wind chills as low as 15 below possible.

* WHERE…Portions of central, northern, and southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, and southern New Jersey.

* WHEN…For the High Wind Watch, from Saturday morning through Saturday evening. For the Extreme Cold Watch, from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS…Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates. Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must go outside.

A surge of Arctic air will bring some of the coldest and windiest conditions of the winter so far to the region this weekend, creating dangerous wind chills and potentially hazardous travel and outdoor conditions.

An Arctic front is set to move through late Friday into Saturday, followed by strong high pressure building east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. As this high pressure system strengthens, it will clash with low pressure offshore, tightening the pressure gradient and driving strong northwest winds across the area.

Saturday will begin with temperatures near their daily highs early in the morning, but conditions will deteriorate quickly. By late morning, temperatures are expected to plunge into the teens as cold air rapidly pours in behind the front. Northwest winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph, with gusts reaching 40 to 50 mph. Wind Advisories are likely as these gusts could cause isolated power issues and make travel difficult, especially for high-profile vehicles.

Wind chills on Saturday will be especially dangerous. Much of the region will experience wind chills in the single digits, with values dropping as low as 10 below zero north and west of the Fall Line. The southern Poconos could see wind chills near 20 below zero during the day.

Conditions will remain harsh Saturday night as temperatures fall into the single digits, with some locations dropping below zero. Lows could reach around 5 below zero in the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey. While winds will decrease slightly overnight, sustained speeds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will continue to drive dangerously low wind chills. By early Sunday morning, wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero are expected across much of southern New Jersey, the Delaware Valley, and Delmarva. Farther north, wind chills may fall to 20 to 25 below zero in the Lehigh Valley and northern New Jersey, with values approaching 30 below zero in the southern Poconos.

Arctic air will remain locked in place on Sunday, with daytime highs only reaching the teens to lower 20s. Winds will gradually ease through the day, but wind chills will still hover in the single digits, keeping conditions bitterly cold.

Temperatures are expected to slowly moderate as the new work week begins, but residents are urged to prepare now for the weekend cold. Limiting time outdoors, dressing in layers, protecting pets, and checking on vulnerable individuals will be critical as the region faces this prolonged blast of Arctic air.

Residents across the Delmarva Peninsula should prepare for a quick change in weather late Friday night into Saturday morning as an Arctic front sweeps through the region, bringing snow showers, gusty winds, and the potential for brief but intense snow squalls.

A fast-moving clipper system will approach the area Friday, though recent forecast trends suggest the system will arrive a bit later than previously expected. Any snow associated with the clipper is not expected to reach western portions of Delmarva until Friday evening. This initial round of snow will be light, with little to no accumulation expected.

The more impactful weather arrives late Friday night as a strong Arctic front moves through the region after midnight and clears the area by Saturday morning. This front is tied to a deep upper-level trough and strong atmospheric energy, creating favorable conditions for widespread snow showers across Delmarva.

Some of these snow showers could briefly intensify into snow squalls, capable of producing heavy snowfall in a short period of time. Visibility could quickly drop to under one mile, while wind gusts may reach up to 40 mph. In areas impacted by stronger squalls, quick accumulations of up to or slightly over one inch of snow are possible.

These conditions may lead to slick and hazardous travel, especially on untreated roads and during the early morning hours Saturday. Drivers are urged to slow down, allow extra stopping distance, and be alert for sudden changes in visibility.

Behind the front, sharply colder air will settle into the region, reinforcing winter conditions heading into the weekend. Residents should stay weather-aware and be prepared for rapidly changing conditions late Friday night into Saturday morning.

A sharp arctic cold front is expected to move across the Delmarva Peninsula late Friday into early Saturday, bringing a brief period of snow followed by very strong winds and sharply colder air. Not to mention dangerous winds chills.

The system is tied to a fast-moving clipper tracking across southern Canada. Ahead of it, a warm front will lift through the region during the day Friday. This will be followed by a much stronger cold front Friday night into Saturday morning, accompanied by strong energy in the upper atmosphere.

We are monitoring the potential for two separate rounds of snow.

The first round is expected during the day Friday as light precipitation develops ahead of the warm front. Snow amounts with this initial round should be minor, with most locations across Delaware, eastern Maryland, and the Lower Eastern Shore seeing a quick coating up to around a half inch.

The second round will arrive with the arctic cold front late Friday night into early Saturday morning. This is when conditions could become more hazardous. Brief but intense snow showers or snow squalls are possible as the front moves through. While confidence in exact placement and intensity is still limited, the atmospheric setup supports the potential for quick bursts of snow, rapidly reduced visibility, and sudden wind gusts. Confidence in snow squall development will increase over the next one to two days as higher-resolution models come into range.

Once the cold front clears the region around daybreak Saturday, conditions will turn sharply colder and much windier. Northwest winds are expected to strengthen quickly, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible across much of Delmarva. Strongest winds are likely Saturday afternoon and evening, particularly in open areas and near the coast, before gradually easing overnight.

We are getting concerned of again widespread below zero wind chills during the day on Saturday and into the overnight hours. Model guidance continues to drive in wind chills down in the rand of -5F to even -15F across the northern tier. Creating frost bite conditions throughout the region

A powerful arctic blast is expected to move into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this weekend, bringing dangerously cold temperatures and life-threatening wind chills, according to the latest outlook issued Tuesday afternoon. The coldest conditions are forecast from Friday through Monday, with impacts extending into Delmarva.

Forecasters indicate a significant arctic outbreak will surge southward late this week, ushering in some of the coldest air of the winter season. Bitterly cold temperatures combined with strong winds will result in hazardous wind chills across much of the region. While the most extreme cold will be focused across the Interior Northeast and New England, Delmarva will still experience sharply colder conditions and dangerous cold stress, especially during the overnight and early morning hours.

Wind chills across parts of the Northeast are expected to plunge well below zero, with some locations potentially seeing values in the minus 30s. Daytime temperatures in the hardest-hit areas may struggle to climb out of the teens and single digits. While Delmarva is not expected to see wind chills quite that extreme, cold air spilling southward will still bring unusually low temperatures for early February.

In addition to the cold, gusty winds are expected to accompany the arctic air mass. These winds will intensify the cold and could lead to isolated tree damage and scattered power outages, particularly in elevated and more exposed areas. Brief periods of intense snowfall are also possible with the arrival of the cold air, including the potential for snow squalls on Friday and Saturday. These fast-moving bursts of snow could quickly reduce visibility and create hazardous travel conditions, even if overall snow accumulation remains limited.

Officials are urging residents to take cold weather safety precautions seriously. Prolonged exposure to extreme cold and wind chills can lead to frostbite and hypothermia in a short period of time. Limiting time outdoors, wearing layered clothing, and covering exposed skin will be critical. Travelers are encouraged to carry cold weather survival kits, while pet owners should ensure animals have adequate protection from the cold.

Residents should also take steps to protect homes and infrastructure. Frozen pipes are a significant concern during extended cold spells, and precautions should be taken to prevent damage. Caution is advised around frozen bodies of water, as ice thickness may be unreliable.

A gradual warming trend is expected to begin by early to mid next week, but forecasters stress that the period from Friday through Monday will pose the greatest risk from extreme cold. Continued updates are expected as the arctic air mass moves closer to the region.

Delmarva has a couple chances for light snow this week, with the first arriving tonight and the second coming late in the week. While neither system looks particularly strong, there are a few details worth watching, especially for parts of central Delmarva.

The first round of snow moves in late Tuesday night and continues into early Wednesday morning. High pressure along the Southeast coast will slide offshore tonight, allowing a weak weather system to move into the Mid-Atlantic. This system does not have a lot of moisture to work with, which will keep snowfall totals limited for most areas.

For much of Delmarva, snow amounts are expected to range from just a coating to around an inch by Wednesday morning. Snow should end around or shortly after daybreak, leading to minimal impacts for the Wednesday commute.

That said, there is a small wildcard with this system. Some high-resolution model guidance suggests that if the two pieces of energy involved with this storm come together a bit more efficiently, a narrow band of heavier snow could develop. If that happens, parts of central Delmarva could see higher totals, with localized amounts approaching three inches. Confidence in this scenario remains low, but it is something we will be keeping a close eye on overnight.

Looking ahead to Friday, another chance for snow arrives as a fast-moving clipper system passes to our north. An Arctic front will sweep through the region, bringing the potential for a brief burst of snow or even a few snow squalls. It is still too early to lock in exact timing or amounts, but any snow on Friday would likely be light and short-lived.

Overall, impacts this week appear limited, but changing conditions overnight tonight and again on Friday could briefly affect travel. Stay tuned for updates as we refine the forecast and track any potential changes.

Groundhog Day delivered a familiar message this morning as Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, pointing toward six more weeks of winter according to tradition. While the annual forecast is rooted in folklore, the outlook for Delmarva suggests that winter conditions are far from finished.

The region is already locked into a colder-than-normal pattern, and indications are that chilly conditions will persist through much of February. Arctic air masses continue to funnel into the eastern United States, keeping temperatures suppressed across the Mid-Atlantic and reinforcing a winter-like feel across Delmarva.

For the remainder of the month, daytime highs are expected to frequently remain in the 20s and low 30s, with overnight lows dipping well below freezing. Periodic intrusions of even colder air could bring stretches of single-digit temperatures and dangerous wind chills, particularly during overnight and early morning hours. While not every day will be harsh, the overall pattern favors sustained cold rather than a quick transition toward spring.

In addition to the cold, the persistent winter pattern will keep the door open for occasional light snow events. While widespread or significant snowfall is not currently expected, weak systems moving through the cold air could produce brief periods of snow or flurries at times, especially during nighttime hours. Any accumulation is expected to be minor, but even light snow could create slick travel conditions given the cold ground temperatures.

The prolonged cold will also place continued strain on heating systems and increase the risk of frozen pipes, particularly during the coldest stretches. Residents are encouraged to remain winter-prepared, limit prolonged exposure to the cold, and take precautions to protect pets, plants, and vulnerable neighbors.

Although Groundhog Day marks the symbolic midpoint of winter, February across Delmarva is shaping up to remain firmly in winter mode. A more noticeable moderation in temperatures may not arrive until later in the season, keeping winter weather concerns in focus for the weeks ahead.

Residents across Delmarva should be aware of a couple of opportunities for light snow as we move through the week, with the first chance arriving Tuesday night into early Wednesday, followed by another potential round on Friday.

High pressure will remain in control along the Southeast coast through Tuesday before sliding offshore by Tuesday night. As this occurs, a broad upper-level trough will dig into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states, while a closed mid-level low tracks across Ontario and Quebec. At the same time, a weak surface low moving out of the Midwest will approach the Mid-Atlantic late Tuesday.

Although this system will be moisture starved and relatively weak, strong upper-level energy combined with sufficiently cold air will allow an area of light snow to develop across the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Most areas south of Interstate 78, including much of Delmarva, could see a coating to around one inch of snow. Localized totals slightly above an inch are possible, particularly across northern Delaware and portions of southern New Jersey. Areas north of Interstate 78 may see a few flurries, but little to no accumulation is expected.

Any snow from this system should taper off by Wednesday morning, with minimal impacts anticipated overall.

Looking ahead to Friday, another chance for snow may develop as a fast-moving clipper system approaches ahead of an Arctic front. While it is too early to determine exact impacts, this system could bring a brief period of light snow and possibly snow squalls to parts of the region late Friday or Friday night.

Forecast confidence and details will continue to be refined as these systems draw closer.

Another surge of arctic air is expected to move into Delmarva and the Mid-Atlantic during the second week of February, bringing a renewed threat of dangerously cold temperatures and harsh wind chills across the region. The latest outlook for February 7 through February 13 indicates a high likelihood of much below normal temperatures, particularly early in the period.

The coldest conditions are currently expected around February 7 and 8, when Delmarva and much of the Mid-Atlantic fall within a high-risk zone for much below normal temperatures. Overnight lows could plunge well into the single digits, with some inland and rural locations potentially dropping below zero. Strong winds accompanying the arctic air mass may lead to subzero wind chills, creating hazardous conditions for anyone outdoors.

While the most intense cold is expected early in the period, moderate risks for much below normal temperatures are forecast to persist across the Mid-Atlantic through at least February 10. This suggests a prolonged stretch of below-freezing temperatures, with daytime highs struggling to reach the 20s and low 30s across much of the region. A broader signal for colder-than-normal conditions remains in place through February 13, indicating limited relief as the week progresses.

The extended duration of cold increases the potential for cold-related impacts across Delmarva. Frozen and burst pipes, increased energy demand, and continued risks to vulnerable populations are all concerns as temperatures remain well below seasonal averages. Agricultural interests and pet owners should also prepare for the prolonged exposure to extreme cold.

Cold weather safety measures remain critical, including limiting time outdoors during the coldest periods, wearing layered clothing, and ensuring pets and livestock have proper shelter. Additional updates and refinements to the forecast are expected as the event draws closer.

We are closely monitoring an unusual atmospheric event developing high above the Arctic that could significantly influence weather across the United States in February and beyond. A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) a rapid rise in temperature and pressure in the upper atmosphere is now forecast to take place in early to mid-February and trigger a collapse of the polar vortex, a large circulation of cold air normally centered over the North Pole.

What is a Stratospheric Warming Event?

Sudden stratospheric warming occurs when atmospheric waves push energy from lower levels up into the stratosphere, abruptly raising temperatures tens of kilometers above the surface and distorting the polar vortex. Under normal winter conditions the vortex helps keep the cold Arctic air bottled up in the far north. But when it is disrupted, weakened, or splits into multiple pieces, it can no longer contain that cold air, allowing it to spill southward into lower latitudes. These events are relatively rare but known to have large impacts on seasonal weather patterns.

What the Forecast Shows

Latest model guidance indicates a prolonged weakening and eventual collapse of the stratospheric polar vortex in early February, driven by a strong warming signal at the 10 mb level of the stratosphere. This collapse could split the vortex into separate lobes and shift the circulation, creating a high-pressure ridge near Greenland and low pressure extending from the eastern United States into the Atlantic. Such a pattern encourages cold, northerly flow into the central and eastern U.S. in the weeks after the stratospheric event.

We emphasize that there is a delay between the peak of the stratospheric warming and the surface weather impacts, typically ranging from 10 to 30 days. But once that coupling occurs, the result often includes a pattern favorable for colder than normal temperatures across large portions of North America.

Potential Impacts for the United States

Colder and more volatile late-winter weather is a possible outcome of this event. If the vortex collapses and the circulation becomes displaced, Arctic air may intrude far southward, increasing the likelihood of cold snaps, deeper snowstorms, and more frequent high-impact winter events. A disrupted vortex also tends to produce “blocking” patterns in the atmosphere, which can allow cold air masses to remain over regions longer than usual.

In previous winters, similar sudden stratospheric warming events have been associated with episodes of severe cold and heavy snowfall across the United States when the displaced polar air interacts with moisture and storm systems at lower levels of the atmosphere. We caution that while not every SSW leads to extreme weather at the surface, the conditions forming this February are unusual for this time of season and deserve attention.

What Comes Next

We will continue to refine the expected timing and magnitude of this event as February approaches. Because the atmospheric coupling process is complex, surface weather impacts such as specific temperature anomalies and storm tracks remain uncertain at this range. However, the emerging pattern underscores the possibility of a colder and more active late winter period across much of the United States should the stratospheric warming and vortex collapse fully materialize.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is preparing to roll out an important update to how severe weather threats are communicated, with changes expected to take effect in March. The update centers on a concept known as Conditional Intensity, which aims to provide clearer insight into how intense severe weather could become if it occurs.

Currently, SPC outlooks focus on the probability that severe weather will occur within a given area. These probabilities describe the likelihood of hazards such as tornadoes, large hail, or damaging winds occurring within 25 miles of a location during the forecast period. While this approach has been effective for identifying areas at risk, it does not explicitly communicate how strong those hazards may be.

The upcoming changes seek to address that gap.

What Is Conditional Intensity?

Conditional intensity describes the expected severity of a weather hazard, assuming that hazard actually occurs. In other words, it answers the question not just of whether severe weather is possible, but how strong it could be if storms develop.

For example, instead of only indicating that tornadoes are possible in an area, conditional intensity information can highlight whether the most likely tornado intensity would be weak or potentially strong. The same applies to hail size and wind speed, offering more detail on the potential impacts of severe storms.

This information has been tested for several years through experimental forecasting programs and research efforts within NOAA. Based on those results, SPC is now moving toward limited operational use.

What Will Change in March?

Beginning in March, SPC plans to add Most Probable Peak Intensity information to certain forecast products, starting with Mesoscale Discussions. These discussions are issued when conditions are becoming favorable for severe weather and often precede watches and warnings.

The new intensity information will provide estimates of the most likely maximum hail size, wind gusts, or tornado strength associated with developing storms. This will give emergency managers, broadcasters, and the public a clearer picture of potential impacts during rapidly evolving severe weather situations.

At this stage, the update will not replace existing outlook categories or probabilities. Instead, it will complement them by adding another layer of context to help users better understand risk.

Why This Matters

Severe weather risk is often misunderstood when forecasts focus solely on probabilities. A lower probability event can still produce significant impacts if the storms that form are intense. Conditional intensity information helps bridge that gap by highlighting potential worst-case outcomes when storms do occur.

This added detail is expected to improve decision making for emergency response, school and business planning, and public preparedness. It also aligns with broader efforts across meteorology to better communicate risk and uncertainty, especially during high-impact weather events.

Looking Ahead

The March rollout marks the first step toward integrating conditional intensity information into operational severe weather forecasting. SPC and its research partners will continue evaluating how this information is used and how it may expand into additional forecast products in the future.

As severe weather season approaches, forecasters emphasize that the public should continue to rely on official watches, warnings, and outlooks, while becoming familiar with this new information as it becomes available.

…COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY… …EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING…

• WHAT…For the Cold Weather Advisory, very cold wind chills as low as 0 expected. For the Extreme Cold Watch, dangerously cold wind chills as low as 5 to 10 below possible.

• WHERE…Dorchester, Inland Worcester, Maryland Beaches, Somerset, and Wicomico Counties.

• WHEN…For the Cold Weather Advisory, from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. For the Extreme Cold Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.

​

• IMPACTS…Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures. An extended period of freezing temperatures could cause ruptured water pipes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must go outside. Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills inside. Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

…COLD WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY…

* WHAT…Very cold wind chills as low as 10 below.

* WHERE…Portions of central, northern, and southern Delaware,
northeast Maryland, central, northern, northwest, and southern New
Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN…Until 11 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS…The cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero could
result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Frostbite and
hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these
temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure
portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills
inside.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
  5 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 to 55 mph.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Inland Worcester, Maryland Beaches, and
  Somerset Counties. In Virginia, Accomack County.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Strong winds could
  cause tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

A major milestone in space weather monitoring was reached this week as NOAA’s Space Weather Follow On-Lagrange 1 (SWFO-L1) observatory successfully executed its final engine burn and entered its intended orbit at the Sun-Earth Lagrange point 1, roughly one million miles from Earth. At this unique vantage point, the satellite will be able to continuously observe the sun and space weather conditions before they reach our planet.

With its arrival at this critical location on January 23, the observatory has officially been renamed Space weather Observations at L1 to Advance Readiness – 1 (SOLAR-1). This marks a significant step forward in operational space weather forecasting for NOAA.

Greg Marlow, Director of NOAA’s Office of Space Weather Observations, highlighted the importance of the mission, saying, “SOLAR-1, America’s first satellite designed exclusively for continuous, operational space weather observations, represents a major advancement in our defense against solar storms.”

SOLAR-1 will provide state-of-the-art data to forecasters and other users, improving the timeliness and accuracy of space weather forecasts, warnings and alerts. Richard Ullman, Deputy Director of NOAA’s Office of Space Weather Observations, emphasized that the data will help protect critical missions and infrastructure, including support for NASA’s Artemis lunar exploration program.

“This spacecraft is going to be an impressive new tool… because space weather is a global concern,” said Shawn Dahl, Service Coordinator at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. Dahl noted that space weather events can have wide-ranging impacts, from affecting critical systems on Earth to space-based infrastructure.

SOLAR-1 will undergo additional checkout and instrument validation before beginning operational service in Spring 2026. Once fully commissioned, the observatory is expected to deliver continuous real-time observations of the solar wind and other space weather phenomena that can disrupt communications, navigation systems and power infrastructure here on Earth.

The satellite was launched on September 24, 2025, aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the start of its journey to its final orbit.

We are closely monitoring the potential for a coastal storm to develop near the Mid-Atlantic next weekend. While confidence remains low regarding exact impacts, there is growing concern that the storm could track close enough to bring at least some impacts to portions of the region.

Latest forecast guidance, including both deterministic and ensemble models, continues to signal the development of a system off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Recent model trends suggest a scenario in which the storm tracks close to the coastline, potentially scraping coastal areas. Under this setup, locations along the immediate coast and across Delmarva would be most vulnerable, while areas farther inland such as the Poconos and nearby higher elevations could see little to no impact.

Current probabilistic snowfall guidance highlights this coastal focus. The latest National Blend of Models indicates a 20 to 25 percent chance of more than 4 inches of snow across northern and western zones. Probabilities increase to around 40 percent along the I-95 corridor and climb to near 50 percent along the immediate coast. These probabilities remain subject to change as the storm track becomes better defined in the coming days.

If the storm does impact the region, timing would favor a late Saturday arrival, with effects potentially lingering through Sunday. In addition to snowfall, strong winds may accompany the system. Even if the storm’s center remains offshore, coastal areas could still experience gusty conditions capable of producing hazardous travel and marine impacts.

One factor that is not in question is the presence of a cold airmass. Temperatures are expected to remain well below normal through next weekend and into early next week. This cold setup would be more than sufficient to support snow at the onset of the storm, should it materialize.

At this time, the forecast remains highly uncertain, and residents are encouraged to stay informed as newer data becomes available. Small changes in storm track could result in large differences in impacts, especially across coastal and near-coastal areas. Updates will continue as confidence increases over the next several days.

A prolonged and dangerous stretch of arctic cold is firmly in place across much of the eastern United States and is expected to continue into early February, according to the latest outlook from the Weather Prediction Center and Climate Prediction Center.

The cold air mass has already delivered record and near-record low temperatures across large portions of the South and Midwest in the wake of a recent winter storm. Overnight lows have plunged into the single digits and below zero in many areas, creating life-threatening conditions, especially for those still dealing with power outages or inadequate heating.

Wind chills are compounding the danger. In parts of the Ohio Valley, wind chills are forecast to drop into the minus 20s, posing a serious risk of frostbite and hypothermia even with limited exposure. Officials urge residents to limit time outdoors, dress in multiple layers, and ensure pets and livestock have adequate shelter from the cold. Frozen pipes also remain a major concern as temperatures stay well below freezing for extended periods.

The accompanying temperature outlook map shows that areas north of the highlighted pink line are expected to remain continuously below freezing through at least February 1. This includes much of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, and interior Mid-Atlantic, where daytime highs may struggle to rise above the teens and 20s.

Relief will be limited, as another surge of arctic air is expected to move southward late this week. Forecast guidance indicates a renewed blast of bitter cold spreading from the Plains into the East and Southeast Friday into Saturday. This surge could bring additional record low temperatures, potentially reaching as far south as Florida, and may mark the coldest conditions seen in several years for some locations.

Forecasters also warn that this could become one of the longest-lasting cold stretches in decades for parts of the eastern half of the country. Much below normal temperatures are expected to persist into the middle of next week before a gradual moderation begins.

With the extended duration of the cold, residents are encouraged to take ongoing precautions. This includes checking on vulnerable neighbors, using space heaters safely, keeping a slow drip on indoor plumbing, and having emergency supplies readily available.

Governor Matthew Meyer has officially ended the State of Emergency that was declared in response to the recent winter storm, effective 3 p.m. on Monday, January 26, 2026. The order, which was first issued Friday, January 23 and took effect in the early hours of Sunday, January 25, also releases the Delaware National Guard from active storm response duties.

Although the formal emergency declaration has concluded, Level 1 driving warnings remain in effect for New Castle and Kent Counties, meaning drivers are strongly advised to avoid travel unless it is necessary for health, safety, or critical business reasons. All motorists should continue to exercise extreme caution on roadways.

State and local crews are continuing cleanup operations, particularly on secondary roads where hazardous conditions may persist as ice melts and temperatures remain below freezing. The National Weather Service has issued a cold weather advisory that is expected to remain in place through Wednesday, January 28, as sub-freezing temperatures continue across the region.

In announcing the end of the state of emergency, Governor Meyer thanked residents for their cooperation during the storm.

“I am grateful that Delaware residents helped weather this winter storm by being prepared, staying informed and by remaining at home, allowing emergency crews to clear the roads and respond to calls for assistance,” Meyer said. He urged continued caution, especially while road conditions improve and winter weather impacts linger.

Residents who have not already done so are encouraged to sign up for emergency alerts through the Delaware Emergency Notification System (DENS) and visit PrepareDE.org for guidance on winter weather readiness.

The Delaware Emergency Management Agency (DEMA) continues leading coordination efforts for storm response and community safety. DEMA works with state and local partners to support preparedness, response, and recovery efforts during weather-related and other emergencies.

An extended period of dangerously cold weather is expected this week, with overnight low temperatures dropping into the single digits and wind chills falling below zero for several nights. These conditions increase the risk of frozen pipes, hypothermia, and other cold related hazards across the region.

Residents are urged to take precautions now, as the prolonged nature of the cold makes this event particularly concerning. When temperatures remain below freezing for extended periods, water inside pipes can freeze, expand, and cause pipes to crack or burst, leading to significant water damage.

To reduce the risk of frozen pipes, homeowners should allow faucets to drip slightly, especially those connected to exterior walls. Opening cabinet doors beneath sinks can help warmer air circulate around plumbing. Pipes in unheated areas such as basements, crawl spaces, garages, and exterior walls should be insulated if possible. If leaving home, indoor temperatures should be kept no lower than 55 degrees.

Knowing where your main water shutoff valve is located can help limit damage if a pipe bursts. If a frozen pipe is suspected, keep the faucet open and apply gentle heat using a hair dryer or warm towels. Open flames should never be used to thaw pipes.

The extreme cold also poses a serious threat to personal safety. With wind chills expected to remain below zero at times throughout the week, the risk of hypothermia increases significantly. Hypothermia occurs when the body loses heat faster than it can produce it, causing body temperature to drop to dangerous levels.

Symptoms of hypothermia include intense shivering, confusion, slurred speech, drowsiness, and loss of coordination. Anyone experiencing these symptoms should seek medical attention immediately. Limiting time outdoors, wearing multiple layers, and covering exposed skin are critical during this cold stretch. Hats, gloves, scarves, and insulated footwear can greatly reduce heat loss.

Space heaters should be used with caution. Keep them at least three feet away from flammable materials and never leave them unattended. Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors should be checked to ensure they are working properly, especially when using supplemental heat sources.

Pet safety is also a concern during this cold outbreak. Pets should be brought indoors whenever possible. Outdoor animals must have adequate shelter, unfrozen water, and extra food to maintain body heat.

With bitter cold expected to persist all week, preparation and awareness are essential. Taking steps now can help prevent costly damage to homes and reduce the risk of serious cold related illnesses.

Residents are encouraged to continue monitoring forecasts and any cold weather advisories or warnings that may be issued as conditions evolve.

...FINAL SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM JANUARY 25TH...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider             

...Delaware...

...Kent County...           
Dover                        6.5 in    0910 AM 01/25   Public               
Dover Air Force Base         6.5 in    1155 AM 01/25   AWOS                 
Woodside                     6.3 in    0300 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter      
Smyrna                       6.0 in    0938 AM 01/25   Trained Spotter      
Camden                       6.0 in    1138 AM 01/25   Trained Spotter      
Magnolia                     5.6 in    0100 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter      
Dover                        5.5 in    1100 AM 01/25   Public               
Harrington 2 ENE             5.5 in    0830 AM 01/26   COCORAHS             

...New Castle County...
Bear                         10.0 in   1100 PM 01/25   Public               
1 ENE Wilmington             9.0 in    0800 PM 01/25   Public               
Newark 1.5 S                 9.0 in    0730 AM 01/26   COCORAHS             
1 NE Holiday Hills           8.7 in    0900 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter      
Pike Creek                   8.5 in    1000 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter      
New Castle County Airport    8.3 in    1200 AM 01/26   ASOS                 
Twin Oaks                    8.1 in    0800 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter      
1 E Talleyville              8.0 in    0315 PM 01/25   Public               
New Castle                   8.0 in    0646 PM 01/25   Public               
Hockessin                    7.8 in    1015 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter      
Newark                       7.5 in    0600 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter      
Hockessin                    6.5 in    1020 AM 01/25   Public               
Wilmington                   6.5 in    1120 AM 01/25   Trained Spotter      
Odessa                       6.5 in    1230 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter      
1 SW Middletown              6.0 in    1030 AM 01/25   Public                        

...Sussex County...
3 ESE Bridgeville            4.5 in    0800 AM 01/26   COCORAHS             
Milton                       4.0 in    0800 AM 01/25   Broadcast Media      
Selbyville                   4.0 in    0839 AM 01/25   Trained Spotter      
Seaford                      4.0 in    0700 AM 01/26   COCORAHS             
Ellendale 3.4 ENE            3.7 in    0700 AM 01/26   COCORAHS             
Dagsboro 6.3 E               3.7 in    0715 AM 01/26   COCORAHS             
Milton                       3.5 in    1130 AM 01/25   Public               
Milton 3.0 E                 3.0 in    0700 AM 01/26   COCORAHS             
Lewes 3.9 SW                 3.0 in    0942 AM 01/26   COCORAHS             
Dagsboro 7.1 ENE             2.9 in    0700 AM 01/26   COCORAHS             
Delmar 4.3 E                 2.0 in    0700 AM 01/26   COCORAHS             
Delmar 0.1 WSW               2.0 in    0731 AM 01/26   COCORAHS             
Georgetown                   1.5 in    0615 AM 01/25   Amateur Radio        
1 WNW Seaford                1.5 in    0615 AM 01/25   Amateur Radio        
Millsboro 1.3 W              1.5 in    0700 AM 01/26   COCORAHS             

...Maryland...

...Kent County...
Rock Hall                    8.5 in    0400 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter      
Chestertown                  7.5 in    0820 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter      

...Queen Annes County...
Ingleside                    6.5 in    1030 AM 01/25   Trained Spotter      
Barclay                      5.5 in    0820 AM 01/25   Broadcast Media      
Centreville                  5.5 in    0912 AM 01/25   Emergency Mngr       
Sudlersville                 5.0 in    0851 AM 01/25   Emergency Mngr       
Queenstown 2.6 S             4.0 in    0800 AM 01/26   COCORAHS             
Church Hill                  3.5 in    0810 AM 01/25   Emergency Mngr       
Grasonville                  3.0 in    0720 AM 01/25   Emergency Mngr       

A Cold Weather Advisory is now in effect for all of Delmarva as an arctic air mass settles across the region, bringing dangerously cold wind chills through Wednesday morning.

The advisory is in effect from 7 p.m. this evening through 10 a.m. Wednesday, with the coldest conditions expected overnight and during the early morning hours. Wind chills across Delmarva are forecast to fall between 0 and 10 degrees below zero, creating hazardous conditions for anyone exposed to the cold for extended periods.

These bitterly cold wind chills can quickly lead to hypothermia or frostbite if proper precautions are not taken. Even brief exposure without adequate protection can become dangerous, especially during the overnight hours when temperatures and wind chills reach their lowest values.

Residents are urged to limit time outdoors, dress in multiple layers, and wear a hat and gloves when outside. Extra care should be taken for vulnerable populations, including children, the elderly, and pets. Outdoor pets should be brought indoors, and livestock should have access to adequate shelter and water that is not frozen.

Those who do not have reliable heat in their homes or lack proper shelter are encouraged to seek assistance. Dial 211 to find warming centers or emergency shelter options available in your area.

Looking ahead, additional cold weather headlines are likely. Forecast confidence continues to increase that the Cold Weather Advisory may be extended and could be upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning for Wednesday night and possibly Thursday night. Wind chills below zero are expected to continue during nighttime hours into the weekend, keeping dangerous cold conditions in place across Delmarva.

Residents should continue to monitor the forecast closely and prepare now for an extended stretch of dangerous cold.

The State of Delaware has issued a Level 1 Driving Warning for all counties beginning at 12:01 a.m. on Sunday, aligning with the ongoing State of Emergency activated in response to the approaching winter storm. The warning will remain in effect until further notice and may be escalated if conditions deteriorate.

Governor Matthew Meyer and state officials say the warning is intended to protect residents and emergency personnel by minimizing nonessential travel while hazardous conditions develop across the region.

What the Level 1 Driving Warning Means

Under this advisory:

• Drivers must exercise extra caution if they choose to operate a vehicle.
• Motorists are strongly encouraged to stay off the roads unless travel is necessary for safety, health, or essential business reasons.

The warning reflects the dangerous conditions expected from the winter storm, which includes accumulating snow, ice, and slick road surfaces. This advisory is designed to help keep roads clear for plow operators, first responders, and other essential travel during the worst of the storm.

Safety Resources and Assistance

Delawareans in need of help during the storm are urged to call 211 for critical resources, including:

• Shelter options
• Food assistance
• Transportation support for essential medical needs

Shelters Open Across the State

State officials also confirmed that Code Purple shelters are open 24 hours statewide in response to the severe winter weather. These shelters provide a warm, safe refuge for vulnerable residents, including meals and additional support services.

Contacts for shelter services include:

• New Castle County: 302-652-8033
• Kent County: 1-800-733-6816
• Sussex County: 302-519-0024

Why Travel Restrictions Matter

Winter weather systems like this one pose a significant risk for motorists, especially when snow and ice accumulate on untreated road surfaces. Roads can become dangerously slippery, leading to increased crashes and response delays. By reducing nonessential travel, officials aim to:

• Reduce crashes and roadside emergencies
• Allow crews to clear and treat roads more efficiently
• Keep emergency responders available for those who truly need help

State transportation crews and plow operators are already working to pre-treat major routes, but officials remind drivers that conditions can change rapidly and secondary roads may remain hazardous for longer.

Stay Updated

Residents should continue to monitor official state updates for the latest advisories and safety guidance as the storm progresses. Following weather alerts from the National Weather Service and alerts from state agencies will help keep communities safe throughout the event.

A dangerous winter storm is barreling toward the Delmarva Peninsula, prompting the National Weather Service to issue a Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM tonight through 1 PM Monday.

The storm is expected to bring 7 to 13 inches of heavy snow and sleet, along with up to three-tenths of an inch of ice accumulation across central and northern Delaware, northeast Maryland, and portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

“Travel could be nearly impossible,” warns the National Weather Service. Ice buildup on power lines and tree limbs may cause widespread power outages and tree damage throughout the region.

Locally, New Castle and Kent counties in Delaware, along with Queen Anne’s, Talbot, and Caroline counties on Maryland’s Eastern Shore, are all under the warning. The hazardous conditions are expected to severely impact Monday morning’s commute.

Officials strongly advise residents to avoid unnecessary travel. If you must drive, keep emergency supplies including a flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle. For the latest road conditions, dial 511.

The Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 1 PM Monday. TV Delmarva will continue monitoring conditions and providing updates throughout the storm.

The State of Delaware has declared a State of Emergency as a powerful winter storm approaches the region, mobilizing state and local agencies to prepare for potentially hazardous conditions. In response, the Delaware Emergency Management Agency (DEMA) has activated the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) to coordinate preparations and response efforts across the state.

Governor Matt Meyer emphasized the importance of readiness as this system moves in, saying that Delawareans should feel secure and well supported as severe winter weather conditions develop.

What the Declaration Means

A State of Emergency gives state leaders the authority to streamline decision-making and resource deployment, improve coordination with local governments and emergency responders, and position personnel and equipment strategically ahead of the storm. The EOC activation brings key agencies together to share data, track impacts in real time, and ensure rapid communication on public safety actions.

Expected Weather and Conditions

Forecasters are tracking a strong winter system expected to bring heavy snow, a wintry mix, and significant icing across much of Delaware. Snow totals could reach near a foot in some areas, with the exact amounts depending on storm track and temperature changes. After the storm’s passage, temperatures are projected to plunge into the teens and low 20s, increasing the risk of slick conditions and prolonged cold.

This system is part of a larger winter storm affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with similar emergency declarations and warnings issued in neighboring states as snow and ice threaten travel and infrastructure.

Preparedness Actions Urged for Residents

Officials are urging Delaware residents to take proactive steps now to prepare for potential disruptions:

• Stock up on essential supplies like non-perishable food, water, prescription medicines, and pet needs.
• Prepare your home for extended cold by checking heating systems, weatherproofing doors and windows, and ensuring fuel supplies are adequate.
• Assemble emergency kits for vehicles and households with flashlights, batteries, blankets, first-aid kits, and a battery-powered weather radio.
• Avoid nonessential travel when conditions worsen. If travel is necessary, leave extra time, go slowly, and carry emergency gear in your vehicle.

DEMA also reminds residents to dress appropriately outdoors in layers and take measures to prevent cold-related health issues like hypothermia and frostbite.

What to Watch For

Officials warn that travel could become dangerous or impossible at times during the storm, particularly on Sunday and into early next week. Power outages and hazardous road conditions are possible, especially where heavier snow and ice accumulate.

State and local partners will continue monitoring conditions, issuing updates through emergency alerts, social media, and official channels. Residents should stay tuned to local forecasts and guidance from DEMA, the National Weather Service, and transportation authorities.

..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST 
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations between 8 and 12 inches and ice accumulations around 
  three tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast 
  Maryland, southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree 
  limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages. Power 
  outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be 
  nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the 
  Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for 
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST 
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations between 6 and 10 inches and ice accumulations around 
  one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Delaware and southern New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for 
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect tonight across the Delmarva Peninsula as a dangerous surge of arctic air settles into the region. Mostly clear skies combined with strong winds will allow temperatures to fall rapidly after sunset, creating life-threatening cold conditions overnight into early Saturday morning.

Overnight lows are expected to range between 6 and 12 degrees, but north winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will dramatically increase the cold impact. As a result, wind chill values are expected to fall below zero across much of Delmarva, with several locations dropping into the -5 to -10 degree range by the pre-dawn hours.

The coldest wind chills are expected across interior sections of the peninsula, while coastal areas will still experience bitter conditions despite some marine influence. These wind chills can cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes, especially with prolonged exposure.

Residents are urged to limit time outdoors, dress in multiple layers including hats and gloves, and ensure pets are brought indoors. Exposed pipes should be protected, and those relying on supplemental heating should use it safely. Power outages are not expected to be widespread, but strong gusts could lead to isolated issues.

Conditions will slowly improve after sunrise Saturday, though temperatures will remain well below normal, and cold weather precautions will remain necessary throughout the day.

Stay weather aware and prepared for hazardous cold conditions across the Delmarva region tonight.

A complex and potentially high-impact winter storm is expected to affect the Mid-Atlantic this weekend, bringing a combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from Saturday into Monday. While confidence is increasing that much of the region will be impacted, significant uncertainty remains regarding exact precipitation types and totals due to a difficult forecast setup involving strong warm air advection overriding very cold surface temperatures.

This setup raises the risk for not only accumulating snow, but also dangerous icing, particularly across parts of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and the Delmarva Peninsula.

Snowfall Forecast Overview

The heaviest snowfall is expected across northern and western portions of the region, where colder air is more firmly established.

Across northern Maryland, including areas such as Frederick, Westminster, Bel Air, Baltimore, and Wilmington, snowfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are possible by the time the storm concludes.

Farther south and east, including Washington, Annapolis, Easton, Dover, and much of central Maryland and Delaware, snow totals are expected to range between 5 and 10 inches. Snowfall amounts begin to decrease closer to the coast as warmer air aloft works into the region.

Along the immediate coast and across portions of southern Delmarva, including Salisbury, Ocean City, and Pocomoke City, snowfall totals are forecast to range from 4 to 8 inches, with lower amounts of 3 to 6 inches possible for coastal Virginia locations such as Chincoteague, Exmore, and Cape Charles.

Significant Ice Threat Also Expected

In addition to snow, portions of the Mid-Atlantic face a serious icing risk due to periods of freezing rain and sleet.

Areas shaded in darker purple on the ice forecast indicate significant icing, where ice accretion of one quarter inch or greater is possible, along with 1 to 3 inches of sleet. This includes parts of central Maryland, the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay, and portions of interior Delaware.

Surrounding areas shown in lighter pink could still see impactful icing, with less than one quarter inch of ice accumulation and 1 to 2 inches of sleet possible. Even lighter ice amounts can cause hazardous travel, downed tree limbs, and isolated power outages.

Why This Forecast Is So Difficult

This storm is particularly challenging to forecast due to strong warm air advection aloft, which allows warmer air to surge over top of a shallow layer of arctic air locked in at the surface. This creates a narrow and highly sensitive transition zone between snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

Small changes in temperature, storm track, or precipitation intensity could lead to sharp gradients in impacts over short distances. As a result, precipitation types and totals may vary significantly from one location to another, even within the same county.

Travel and Infrastructure Impacts

The combination of heavy snow and ice could lead to dangerous travel conditions throughout the weekend. Roads may quickly become snow covered or ice glazed, especially during periods of freezing rain. Ice accumulation also increases the risk of downed trees and power lines, which could result in scattered power outages.

Residents should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions and possible travel disruptions.

How to Prepare

Residents across the Mid-Atlantic are urged to take preparation steps now, ahead of the storm:

• Avoid unnecessary travel during the height of the storm.
• Keep an emergency kit ready with flashlights, batteries, food, water, and medications.
• Charge electronic devices ahead of time in case of power outages.
• Check on elderly neighbors and those with limited mobility.
• If you must travel, keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including blankets, food, and a fully charged phone.
• Monitor the latest forecasts and updates, as adjustments to snow and ice totals are likely.

Bottom Line

This weekend’s winter storm has the potential to bring heavy snow, significant icing, and hazardous travel conditions across much of the Mid-Atlantic. While confidence is high that the region will be impacted, the exact nature of those impacts remains uncertain due to the complex interaction between warm air aloft and very cold surface temperatures.

Residents are encouraged to stay weather aware and prepared as the forecast continues to evolve over the coming days.

…COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10
AM EST SATURDAY…

* WHAT…Very cold wind chills as low as 8 below expected.

* WHERE…Portions of central, northern, and southern Delaware,
northeast Maryland, central, northern, and southern New Jersey,
and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN…From midnight Friday Night to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS…The cold wind chills as low as 8 below zero could result
in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Frostbite and
hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these
temperatures. Wind chill values can lead to hypothermia with
prolonged exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

A significant winter storm is expected to impact the Mid-Atlantic this weekend, beginning late Saturday and continuing through Monday. The storm is forecast to bring a wide range of winter weather impacts across the region, including heavy snowfall, mixed precipitation, and areas of freezing rain, particularly across Delmarva and southern portions of Maryland and New Jersey.

Snowfall Outlook

The heaviest snowfall is expected across northern and western portions of the region. Much of northern Maryland, including areas such as Frederick, Westminster, Baltimore, Bel Air, and Gaithersburg, along with northern Delaware and southern New Jersey, could see widespread snowfall totals of 12 to 18 inches. Wilmington, Vineland, and surrounding communities also fall within this higher-impact zone.

Snow totals decrease moving south and east toward the Chesapeake Bay and coastal plain. Central Maryland locations such as Annapolis and Chestertown are forecast to receive 8 to 14 inches of snow. Areas farther south, including Easton, Cambridge, La Plata, and Lexington Park, are currently forecast to receive 6 to 12 inches.

Across southern Delmarva and the lower Eastern Shore, snowfall amounts are expected to be lower due to warmer air and a greater risk of mixing. Salisbury is forecast to receive 5 to 10 inches, while Ocean City, Pocomoke City, Chincoteague, Exmore, and Cape Charles are expected to see between 3 and 6 inches of snow.

Ice and Mixed Precipitation Concerns

In addition to snowfall, icing is a major concern for parts of the region. A corridor of significant icing is possible across southern and central Delmarva, including areas such as Georgetown, Salisbury, Ocean City, Pocomoke City, Chincoteague, and Cape Charles. These areas could experience up to a quarter inch of freezing rain, along with the potential for sleet accumulations exceeding one half inch. This could lead to hazardous travel conditions and the potential for power outages.

Farther north, including parts of northern Maryland, northern Delaware, and southern New Jersey, lighter icing is possible. These areas may see up to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain, along with periods of sleet, mainly during transitions between snow and rain.

Impacts and Timing

Travel conditions are expected to deteriorate rapidly late Saturday night as precipitation overspreads the region. The most significant impacts are likely to occur Sunday into early Monday, when snowfall rates may become heavy at times and icing issues increase across southern areas. The combination of heavy snow, ice accumulation, and gusty winds could lead to dangerous road conditions and scattered power outages.

Weather First will continue to monitor this evolving storm closely. While confidence is increasing in a high-impact winter weather event, exact snow and ice totals may still shift depending on the storm track and temperature profile.

Residents are urged to prepare now, review travel plans, and stay tuned for forecast updates as the weekend approaches.

A dangerous surge of Arctic air is expected to spread across the Mid-Atlantic region late this week and persist into early February, bringing some of the coldest conditions of the winter season so far. Forecast confidence continues to increase that this will be a prolonged and impactful cold stretch rather than a brief cold snap.

An Arctic front is forecast to move through the region this weekend, allowing frigid air to pour southward into Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and surrounding areas. Temperatures are expected to fall sharply behind the front, with daytime highs struggling well below normal and overnight lows dropping into the teens and single digits in many locations. Some inland and higher elevation areas may fall even colder.

Strong winds accompanying the Arctic air will significantly worsen conditions by driving wind chills into dangerous territory. Wind chill values are expected to drop below zero at times across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, especially overnight and during the early morning hours. These conditions can lead to frostbite on exposed skin in a short amount of time and increase the risk of hypothermia for anyone spending extended periods outdoors.

The cold is expected to linger well beyond the weekend. Forecast trends indicate much below normal temperatures continuing through the end of January and into early February, with a heightened risk of hazardous cold conditions returning in waves. This suggests limited opportunities for meaningful warmups during this period.

The prolonged nature of the cold raises concerns for frozen pipes, increased energy demand, and stress on infrastructure. Any power outages that occur during this time could quickly become dangerous due to the sustained cold. Pets, livestock, and outdoor plumbing will need protection as temperatures remain well below seasonal averages.

Residents across the Mid-Atlantic should prepare now for an extended stretch of winter cold. Cold weather safety precautions are strongly encouraged, including limiting time outdoors, dressing in layers, protecting exposed skin, and ensuring adequate heating is available.

Additional updates will be provided as the timing and severity of the cold become more refined.

Confidence continues to grow that a significant winter storm will impact much of the Mid Atlantic, including the Delmarva Peninsula, beginning Saturday night and potentially lasting into Monday. While there is still uncertainty regarding the exact track and where the heaviest snowfall sets up, the overall signal for a high impact event continues to strengthen.

A developing area of low pressure is expected to organize near the Texas Gulf Coast on Saturday. This system will be fueled by several pieces of upper level energy diving south into the base of a persistent long wave trough dominating much of the continental United States. As these upper level disturbances interact and begin to phase Saturday night into Sunday, surface low pressure is expected to deepen while tracking east through the southeastern states and then turning north and east toward the Virginia coastline by late Sunday.

Forecast guidance has continued to trend northward with the track of the low, largely due to improved phasing of the upper level energy. While this trend increases confidence that the storm will affect the region, it also introduces uncertainty regarding snowfall totals and precipitation type, particularly for southern and coastal locations.

At this time, confidence is high that much of the region will see moderate to heavy snowfall. Probabilities for six inches or more of snow have increased significantly, ranging from around 60 percent in the southern Poconos to as high as 80 to 90 percent near and south of the I 95 urban corridor. Many areas also have the potential to receive over one inch of liquid equivalent precipitation, which supports the potential for impactful snow totals.

Snow is expected to break out across the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures will be cold enough at the onset for all snow, with overnight lows dropping into the single digits across northern areas and into the teens to near 20 degrees across Delmarva. These cold temperatures should initially support efficient snow accumulation.

Snow is likely to continue through the day Sunday and may fall heavy at times, especially as northeast winds increase, particularly along the coast. Late Sunday into Sunday night, there is the potential for some mixing across southern portions of the region, including Delmarva and parts of southern New Jersey, and possibly as far north as the Philadelphia area if the low tracks close enough to the coast. Given the strength of the arctic high pressure to the north and the entrenched cold air mass, plain rain appears less likely. Any mixing would more likely involve sleet or freezing rain rather than a full changeover to rain.

If mixing does occur, a return to all snow is expected later Sunday night into early Monday as colder air reasserts itself and the system begins to pull away. Precipitation should gradually taper off across the region during the day Monday.

While confidence has increased that this will be a significant winter storm, uncertainty remains regarding where the heaviest snowfall ultimately falls. Just 24 hours ago, the primary concern was whether the storm would pass far enough south to largely miss the area. Now, the focus has shifted to whether the track becomes far enough north to introduce mixing for southern and coastal locations.

As is often the case with large winter storms, the corridor of heaviest snowfall is typically narrow, sometimes only 100 miles wide. Areas southeast of this axis may experience more mixing or lower snow totals, while areas northwest may see lighter precipitation. Because of this, it will likely take another one to two forecast cycles to better resolve where any potential blockbuster snowfall sets up within the region.

Residents across Delmarva and the surrounding Mid Atlantic should closely monitor forecast updates over the coming days, as even small shifts in the storm track could have a significant impact on snowfall totals and overall impacts.

Confidence continues to increase in the development of a significant winter storm that is expected to impact a large portion of the central and eastern United States beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend. This system has the potential to produce a wide swath of heavy snow and dangerous ice, leading to hazardous travel and possible infrastructure impacts.

Current forecast trends indicate this storm will track from the Great Plains toward the East Coast, strengthening as it moves east. Areas north of the storm track are expected to see periods of heavy snow, while locations along and just south of the track face a heightened risk for freezing rain and sleet.

Heavy snow is likely across portions of the central Plains, Ohio Valley, and into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Snowfall rates could become intense at times, resulting in rapidly deteriorating road conditions, reduced visibility, and significant travel disruptions. Snow-covered roads and difficult driving conditions are expected where the heaviest bands develop.

South of the snow zone, dangerous ice accumulation is becoming increasingly likely. A wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet may create treacherous conditions, especially on untreated surfaces. Ice accretion raises concerns for downed trees and power outages, particularly in areas that experience prolonged freezing rain.

There is a growing signal for at least moderate winter storm impacts from Friday through Sunday. These impacts include hazardous travel, disruptions to daily routines, and possible damage to infrastructure. The combination of snow, ice, and cold temperatures could make conditions especially dangerous during peak travel periods.

While confidence in a high-impact winter storm is increasing, some uncertainty remains regarding the exact track and timing. Small shifts in the storm’s path could significantly change where the heaviest snow and ice set up. Forecast details will continue to be refined as the system approaches.

Residents across the affected regions should begin preparing now for potentially dangerous winter weather conditions this weekend. Additional updates will be issued as confidence continues to improve and impacts become clearer.

A prolonged stretch of colder than normal temperatures is becoming increasingly likely across much of the eastern United States as we move deeper into late January. The latest temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center show a strong and persistent signal for below average temperatures developing during both the 6–10 day and 8–14 day forecast periods.

The 6–10 day outlook highlights a broad area of colder than normal conditions expanding from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. The highest confidence for below normal temperatures is centered over the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, where probabilities strongly favor temperatures well below seasonal averages. This colder air mass is expected to gradually spread eastward and southward as the pattern evolves.

By the 8–14 day timeframe, the cold signal strengthens and becomes more entrenched across the eastern half of the country. Much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Northeast show a high likelihood of sustained below normal temperatures, indicating that this will not be a brief cold snap. Instead, forecast guidance suggests repeated intrusions of Arctic air reinforcing the cold pattern well into early February.

Meteorologically, this setup is driven by a strong ridge of high pressure over the western United States and a deep trough anchored across the eastern U.S. This configuration allows cold air from Canada to repeatedly spill southward, keeping temperatures suppressed for an extended period. While the western U.S. remains warmer than average under the ridge, the eastern states remain locked in a colder regime.

For residents across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, this pattern could bring multiple days of daytime highs running well below normal, along with colder overnight lows. The persistence of the cold also raises the potential for increased energy demand, frozen pipes, and heightened vulnerability for those without adequate heating. Any storm systems that develop during this period would also need to be closely monitored, as the presence of cold air could support winter weather threats.

Forecast confidence is increasing that this cold stretch will be one of the more significant and long-lasting cold periods of the season for the eastern United States. Residents are encouraged to prepare for prolonged winter conditions and stay updated as forecasts are refined in the coming days.

A strong solar flare, classified as an X1.9 event, erupted from the Sun on January 18, 2026, peaking around 18:09 UTC, according to the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. This flare originated from Active Region 3431, a magnetically complex sunspot group currently facing Earth.

Space weather forecasters are tracking a G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm affecting Earth’s magnetic environment tonight, raising the possibility of rare auroral displays visible across mid-Atlantic skies, including the Delmarva region.

What Is a G4 Magnetic Storm?

A geomagnetic storm occurs when charged particles from the Sun, often launched by a solar flare or coronal mass ejection (CME), slam into Earth’s magnetosphere and disturb its magnetic field. The intensity of these storms is measured on the NOAA Space Weather Scale from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme). A G4 storm represents severe levels of geomagnetic activity, indicating strong magnetic fluctuations and a heightened potential for vivid auroras at unusually low latitudes.

During a G4 event:

• Particles from the Sun funnel into the upper atmosphere near the poles and excite atoms like oxygen and nitrogen, creating luminous curtains of light known as the aurora borealis.
• The auroral zone expands, sometimes far south of its normal range, allowing observers in mid-latitude regions (including the Mid-Atlantic) to see lights typically confined to far northern skies.

Geomagnetic storms at this level can also affect radio communications, GPS accuracy, and in rare cases electric power systems, though modern grids are usually resilient.

Aurora Potential Tonight for Delmarva

Forecasters monitoring the aurora forecast models say the current geomagnetic activity could push the auroral oval southward toward the mid-Atlantic. Under G4 conditions, auroras have in the past been reported as far south as the southeastern United States, with some displays reaching states like Florida and Alabama during strong storms.

For observers in Delaware and the broader Delmarva region, this means:

• Timing: The best chances for sightings are typically after local sunset through the late evening and into the early morning hours. Auroras are most visible when the sky is fully dark.
• Colors & Forms: If visible, the lights may appear as greenish glows or shimmering curtains, occasionally with hints of red or pink at the edges, depending on atmospheric conditions and storm strength.
• Visibility Factors: Clear skies and low light pollution will improve viewing prospects. Urban lighting and cloud cover can wash out faint auroral activity.

This level of geomagnetic storming is rare for mid-latitude regions like the Mid-Atlantic, and any display would be an unusual and noteworthy event for skywatchers in the area.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two
  inches.

* WHERE...Dorchester, Inland Worcester, the Maryland Beaches,
  Somerset, and Wicomico Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The advisory may need to be expanded
  southward with future updates if the snow forecast continues to
  trend upward.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Call 511 for road
information.

The Mid-Atlantic region continues to grapple with expanding dry conditions this winter, with drought intensifying across much of the area, according to the latest update from the United States Drought Monitor.

The U.S. Drought Monitor map released this week shows that moderate to severe drought conditions have grown across key parts of the Mid-Atlantic, including central Maryland and large portions of central Virginia. While some northern areas of Pennsylvania experienced wetter conditions, southern and eastern portions of the region have remained dry, allowing drought to deepen.

Abnormally dry conditions now extend through wide swaths of the Mid-Atlantic. The Monitor categorizes drought severity on a scale from D0 (abnormally dry) to D4 (exceptional drought), and recent assessments show that drought categories have climbed across the region as a result of ongoing precipitation deficits and above-normal temperatures.

Officials say the dry pattern is tied largely to below-average rainfall and snowfall over recent months. Water resources, including streamflow and groundwater levels, have been slow to recover, particularly in areas that saw little relief from fall and early winter precipitation. Some parts of the region have already enacted water restrictions for residents and agriculture due to low reservoir and river levels.

Forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center warn that drought persistence is likely through the late winter and early spring, as the outlook shows no strong signal for widespread heavy precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic. Climatologists note that any recovery will be gradual, and areas with long-term moisture deficits may continue to see dry conditions linger well into the spring months.

The drought’s effects are being felt across industries and ecosystems. Farmers report increasingly dry fields that have challenged winter cover crops and pasture lands. Municipal water managers are monitoring reservoir levels and preparing for the possibility of expanded water use restrictions as the season progresses. Ecologists also warn that prolonged dry conditions could strain forests, wetlands, and aquatic habitats already stressed by low streamflows.

Good morning, Delmarva! We’re starting Thursday with a few lingering snow flurries through 7am, but don’t worry – any accumulation will be minimal. Once that clears out, we’re looking at a much brighter day with mostly sunny skies and a high of 36 degrees. Now, bundle up if you’re heading out today! We’ve got some gusty west winds at 15 to 20 mph, with gusts potentially reaching 35 mph. That’ll make it feel quite a bit chillier than our actual temperature, so grab that winter coat and maybe secure any loose outdoor items. Tonight turns partly cloudy and quite cold, with lows dropping to a brisk 21 degrees – definitely a night to keep the heat on and maybe enjoy some hot cocoa indoors. Looking ahead to Friday, we’re in for a treat with full sunshine and a slightly warmer high of 38 degrees. Friday night brings increasing clouds with lows around 29.

Good morning, Delmarva! We’re starting Tuesday with some beautiful sunshine across the peninsula, and it’s shaping up to be a pleasant day despite the chilly January temperatures.

Today will be sunny with highs reaching around 50 degrees – not bad for mid-January! You’ll feel a gentle southwest breeze at 5 to 10 mph, so it might feel just a touch cooler when you’re out and about. Perfect weather for any outdoor errands or a brisk walk.

Tonight, we’ll see clouds moving in as temperatures drop to around 38 degrees. Wednesday brings mostly cloudy skies with highs near 52 degrees, so we’ll actually warm up a degree or two.

However, here’s what you need to know for planning ahead: Wednesday night is when things get interesting. Temperatures will plummet to around 27 degrees, and we’re likely to see a mix of rain and snow developing. This could impact Thursday morning’s commute, so keep that in mind.

Enjoy today’s sunshine, Delmarva – stay warm and have a great Tuesday!