TV Delmarva CHANNEL 33 WOWZ

Category: Weather

  • Rain Threat Increases Across the Mid Atlantic Through the Weekend

    Rain Threat Increases Across the Mid Atlantic Through the Weekend

    A prolonged period of unsettled weather is expected to impact much of the Mid Atlantic beginning later this evening and continuing through Sunday, bringing multiple rounds of rain and the potential for localized flooding concerns.

    Rain showers will begin moving into the region from west to east this evening as a mild and moisture rich weather pattern remains in place. While rainfall tonight is expected to be generally light to moderate, coverage will increase overnight and into Saturday as a stronger system approaches.

    More widespread rain is forecast for Saturday and Saturday night as deeper moisture moves into the Mid Atlantic. Periods of steady rain are likely, with occasional heavier downpours. Embedded isolated thunderstorms are also possible during this time, which could briefly enhance rainfall rates in some areas.

    By Sunday, additional rounds of showers are expected to continue, keeping soils saturated and rivers on the rise. While rainfall amounts will vary by location, several areas could see one to two inches of rain by the end of the weekend, with locally higher totals where heavier showers or thunderstorms occur.

    Delmarva Region Faces Elevated Rain And Water Concerns

    Across the Delmarva Peninsula, including Delaware, eastern Maryland, and the Eastern Shore of Virginia, the rain threat will become more pronounced overnight and persist through the weekend. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are likely across much of the region, with isolated higher amounts possible.

    The combination of steady rain, mild temperatures, and ongoing snow and ice melt farther north could lead to noticeable rises on rivers, streams, and creeks. Low lying and poor drainage areas may be especially susceptible to ponding of water, particularly during periods of heavier rain.

    While widespread flooding is not currently expected, localized minor flooding cannot be ruled out, especially if thunderstorms produce brief heavy downpours. Urban areas and locations near small waterways should remain alert for changing conditions.

  • January Thaw Ongoing For Now, Winter Making A Return Towards Next Week

    January Thaw Ongoing For Now, Winter Making A Return Towards Next Week

    With days as of this past week constantly being int he 50’s and even 60’s, many wonder where did winter go? Normally in the winter months across the lower 48 go through a longer duration warming trend as a recharge of the overall pattern and sign are pointing at a return to more winter weather moving back across the eastern half of the US.

    Weather models are all onboard for a bigger shift in the overall weather pattern across the Northern Hemisphere Mainly what’s going on across the Pacific Ocean which is the biggest driver to the Lower 48 weather pattern for supplying the cold air and the active storm track. One thing that is peaking my interests is a significant drop in the Eastern Pacific Oscillation during the time period of the 14th-20th.

    A very large negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation, or EPO, is a significant large scale weather pattern that can strongly influence temperature and storm tracks across the United States, especially during the fall and winter months.

    When the EPO is strongly negative, a powerful ridge of high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific, often near Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. This ridge acts as a blocking feature, forcing the jet stream to buckle sharply northward into Alaska and then dive southward downstream into western and central North America. As a result, Arctic air is displaced south out of Canada and into the United States.

    For the western United States, a negative EPO often brings colder than normal temperatures, particularly to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. The ridge offshore can suppress precipitation along parts of the West Coast, leading to drier conditions in California, while the colder air aloft supports snow in the higher elevations of the Northwest and Intermountain West when storms are able to undercut the ridge.

    Across the central and eastern United States, the downstream response to a negative EPO is often a broad trough, which allows cold air to spill southward. This can lead to below normal temperatures across the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast. When moisture is available, this pattern can be favorable for winter storms, as cold air at the surface can interact with southern stream systems or coastal lows.

    The strength of the negative EPO matters. A weak negative phase may only produce brief or modest cold shots, while a strongly negative EPO can support prolonged cold outbreaks, sometimes reaching deep into the southern United States. This setup can also increase the likelihood of sharp temperature swings if the blocking ridge eventually breaks down.

    Weather across the Eastern US might get very interesting going forward into the mid-month.

  • Periods of Rain Expected Across Delmarva Through the Weekend

    Periods of Rain Expected Across Delmarva Through the Weekend

    Residents across the Delmarva Peninsula should prepare for several rounds of rain as a series of weather systems move through the region from late Friday into early Sunday. While no significant flooding or severe weather is expected, the stretch will bring generally wet and mild conditions.

    The first system arrives late Friday as a weakening cold front moves into the Mid-Atlantic. This front is tied to an area of low pressure lifting north from the Great Lakes toward Quebec. Rain is expected to develop Friday afternoon and continue into Friday night. As the front weakens and gradually dissipates over the region, temperatures are not expected to drop noticeably, with little to no cold air pushing in behind it.

    A second, more impactful system follows on Saturday. A deepening upper-level trough moving south from Canada into the Great Lakes will help spawn a new surface low over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This low will track northeast, pushing a warm front northward across Delmarva on Saturday. As the warm front lifts through the region, rain coverage will increase and milder air will overspread the peninsula.

    Temperatures on Saturday may behave unusually, with some locations seeing their highest readings later in the day or even during the evening hours as warmer air moves in. Overnight temperatures may hold steady or even rise slightly in some areas. Overall, Saturday is expected to be a warm and wet day, with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to the low 60s.

    Heavier rain is expected to move in later Saturday as an initial cold front crosses the region. While a brief rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out due to some elevated instability in the atmosphere, no severe weather is anticipated. Showers may linger Saturday night until a secondary cold front moves through on Sunday morning. Behind that front, winds will increase, but the chance of wind gusts reaching advisory levels remains low.

    There is higher confidence that Delmarva will see periods of rain from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning, though exact rainfall totals remain uncertain. Most guidance suggests at least a half inch of rain, with some models indicating localized totals between 1.5 and 2 inches. The probability of receiving one inch or more of rain is around 40 to 60 percent, while the chance of exceeding two inches is low.

    Rainfall is expected to fall over a 36 to 48 hour period with breaks between systems, reducing the risk of flooding. With mild temperatures in place leading into the weekend, any remaining ice in streams or rivers should have already melted, allowing water to drain efficiently. Confidence in rainfall totals and timing is expected to improve as the weekend approaches.

  • Multiple Rounds of Rain Expected Across Delmarva This Weekend

    Multiple Rounds of Rain Expected Across Delmarva This Weekend

    The Delmarva region is expected to see several rounds of rain as a series of weather systems move through the area from late Friday into Sunday morning. While the rain will be spread out over time, confidence is high that most locations will see wet conditions at some point during the weekend.

    The first round of rain arrives late Friday into Friday night as a weakening cold front crosses the region. This front is associated with an area of low pressure moving from the Great Lakes toward eastern Canada. Because the front is weakening as it approaches Delmarva, it is not expected to bring much of a temperature drop or colder air. Rain during this period should generally be light to moderate.

    A stronger system moves in on Saturday as a slow moving trough dives south from Canada into the Great Lakes. This will help develop a new area of low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley that tracks northeast toward the Mid Atlantic. A warm front is expected to lift through Delmarva Saturday morning, placing the region in a warmer and more humid air mass. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the 60s, which is mild for this time of year, though still a few degrees shy of daily records.

    Heavier rain is expected later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front moves through the region. There may be enough instability in the atmosphere for a rumble of thunder, but severe weather is not expected. After the initial front moves offshore Saturday night, scattered showers may linger until a secondary cold front passes through on Sunday morning.

    Once the secondary front clears the area, winds will increase, but the chance of wind gusts reaching advisory levels remains low. Overall, rainfall will be spread out over a 36 to 48 hour period with breaks between rounds.

    Forecast confidence is high that rain will occur, but exact rainfall totals remain uncertain. Most guidance suggests at least a half inch of rain, with some models indicating localized totals between 1.5 and 2 inches. The probability of receiving one inch or more of rain sits around 30 to 50 percent, while the chance of exceeding two inches is low.

    Despite the potential for moderate rainfall, flooding concerns remain minimal. The rain will fall gradually rather than all at once, and recent mild temperatures should have eliminated any lingering ice in creeks or rivers, allowing water to drain efficiently.

    More confidence in rainfall totals is expected as the weekend approaches, but residents across Delmarva should be prepared for several periods of rain from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning.

  • 30 Years Later: Reflecting on the Blizzard of ’96 and the Impact on Delmarva

    30 Years Later: Reflecting on the Blizzard of ’96 and the Impact on Delmarva

    This winter marks 30 years since one of the most powerful and memorable winter storms in Mid-Atlantic history — the Blizzard of 1996. From January 6 through January 8, a classic nor’easter buried much of the Eastern United States under a historic blanket of snow, bringing life to a standstill from Virginia all the way to southern New England. Thirty years later, the effects of that storm remain part of the weather lore of communities across the Delmarva Peninsula.

    A Storm that Shut Down the Region

    The Blizzard of ’96 was not simply a big snowstorm, it was a paralyzing meteorological event. Fueled by abundant Gulf moisture lifting into frigid Arctic air, the storm produced heavy snowfall, fierce winds, and drifts as high as 5 to 8 feet in places, and it cut off normal travel and commerce for days. More than 20 inches of snow was common from the Smoky Mountains to the Northeast, with Baltimore alone recording more than 22 inches.

    Across the broader Mid-Atlantic, most major airports closed, highways like Interstate 95 became impassable, government and business operations shut down, and utility outages were widespread as heavy snow and strong winds downed trees and power lines.

    Delmarva’s Experience: Snow, School Closures, and Water Issues

    Although Delmarva lies on the more southern and coastal edge of the storm’s heaviest snow, many parts of the Eastern Shore still saw significant impacts. In Delaware and Maryland’s eastern counties, reports from regional accounts show that snowfall totals often reached into the teens across Delmarva, with southern and interior areas picking up even more as the storm slowly moved northward.

    Across the peninsula, schools and local governments closed for days, giving many children extended breaks and making the blizzard one of the most memorable weather events of a generation for families on the Eastern Shore. Many locals from surrounding Mid-Atlantic communities still reminisce about “the week the snow didn’t stop” and the long task of digging out afterward.

    After the Snow: Rapid Melt and Flooding

    What made the Blizzard of 1996 especially notable wasn’t just the snowfall — it was what happened after the snow stopped. Warm and humid air rapidly moved in shortly after the storm, bringing heavy rain and quick snowmelt across the Mid-Atlantic. This combination caused major flooding in rivers and streams throughout the region, including Chesapeake Bay tributaries that affect Delmarva’s watersheds.

    Tributaries that feed into the Bay saw record flows as hundreds of millions of gallons of water — along with nutrients and sediment from the melting snowpack — rushed downstream, raising water levels and flooding low-lying farmland around Delmarva rivers and streams.

    Long-Term Memories and Local Culture

    In the decades since, the Blizzard of ’96 has remained a touchpoint in local weather memory. Many families on Delmarva still tell stories of being snowed in for days, navigating icy roads, building massive drifts and snow forts, and enduring extended school closures that are still talked about at community gatherings.

    For long-time residents of the Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva, the storm also stands as a reminder of how quickly winter weather can transition from snow to serious flooding, the importance of emergency preparation for both snow and water events, and how a single storm system can reshape community life for weeks.

  • High Winds And Cooler Temps Follow Behind Cold Front This Weekend

    High Winds And Cooler Temps Follow Behind Cold Front This Weekend

    A strong cold front moving through the Northeast is expected to bring a period of gusty winds through Sunday night, with the highest wind gusts occurring in the wake of the front. Widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph are likely across much of the Mid-Atlantic and interior Northeast, including Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and New England. Stronger gusts in the 55 to 65 mph range are possible across parts of upstate New York and areas downwind of the Great Lakes, where the pressure gradient will be strongest. Along the coast, especially across New Jersey, Long Island, and southern New England, gusts may exceed 50 mph, increasing the risk for downed trees, power outages, and travel disruptions.

    Here is a break down per state in the region…

    Delaware:
    Strong winds are expected behind the cold front, with peak gusts generally ranging from 45 to 55 mph statewide. The highest gusts are most likely along the coast and across the Delmarva Peninsula, where marine influence and a tighter pressure gradient could push isolated gusts slightly higher. These winds may lead to scattered power outages and difficult travel, especially on bridges and causeways.

    Maryland:
    Widespread gusts of 45 to 55 mph are forecast across much of Maryland, including the I-95 corridor from Baltimore to Washington. Western Maryland could see locally stronger gusts approaching 55 to 60 mph, particularly in higher elevations and along exposed ridgelines. The combination of saturated soils and strong winds may increase the risk for downed trees and power lines.

    Virginia:
    Much of northern and central Virginia can expect wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph, with higher gusts of 50 to 55 mph possible across eastern Virginia and along the Chesapeake Bay. Coastal and tidal areas may experience the strongest winds as colder air surges in behind the front. Impacts may include isolated power outages, difficult travel for high-profile vehicles, and minor coastal concerns.

  • Much Needed Rainfall Later In The Week

    Much Needed Rainfall Later In The Week

    As the temperatures begin to warm up, so does the rain chances as we approach the weekend ahead. Rain will begin to move into the Delmarva region during the morning hours on Friday as a warm front lifts towards New England. Rain chances continue all the way through early Sunday morning when the cold front swings through. But will this bring any relief to the drought situation here in the Mid-Atlantic?

    Much of the Mid-Atlantic remains under ongoing drought conditions as of early January. Abnormally dry conditions continue across large portions of Maryland, Delaware, southern Pennsylvania, and northern Virginia, with moderate drought expanding across central and western Maryland into parts of northern Virginia. The most pronounced dryness is focused west of the Chesapeake Bay, including areas near Washington, Frederick, and Hagerstown, where prolonged precipitation deficits persist. While coastal sections of the Delmarva Peninsula remain primarily abnormally dry, limited improvement has occurred, and soil moisture remains below normal. These conditions continue to stress agriculture, water resources, and increase the risk of winter wildfire activity if dry weather persists.

    Heavier rainfall potential this weekend is focused farther north and west, with higher totals indicated across parts of western and central Pennsylvania and into the higher terrain of western Maryland. Lighter precipitation amounts are expected south and east, including much of central and southern Virginia and portions of the Delmarva Peninsula, where totals look more modest. This setup suggests the best chance for more meaningful rainfall will be away from the coastal plain, while areas closer to the Chesapeake Bay and southward may see limited rainfall and little improvement to ongoing dry conditions.

  • Widespread Warmth Expected Across Eastern U.S. in Mid-January Outlook

    Widespread Warmth Expected Across Eastern U.S. in Mid-January Outlook

    A strong signal for above-normal temperatures is shaping up across much of the eastern United States as we head into the January 8–12, 2026 timeframe, according to the latest 6–10 day temperature outlook issued by NOAA on January 2.

    The outlook shows a broad and confident area of above-average temperatures extending from the Mississippi Valley eastward to the Atlantic Coast. This includes the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Southeast, and much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In these areas, probabilities favoring above-normal temperatures range from 60% to as high as 90%, indicating a strong likelihood that temperatures will trend warmer than what is typical for early January.

    For the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delmarva, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, the signal is particularly robust. Persistent ridging in the upper atmosphere is expected to keep Arctic air bottled up well to the north, allowing milder air to dominate. This pattern would favor daytime highs running several degrees above normal, with fewer opportunities for sustained cold or wintry weather during this period.

    In contrast, below-normal temperatures are favored across portions of the western United States, especially parts of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. These regions show a 33–60% probability of cooler-than-average conditions, suggesting a more active Pacific pattern delivering cooler air and potentially unsettled weather.

    Areas of the northern Rockies and portions of the interior West are expected to remain near seasonal averages, lying along the transition zone between the cooler West and warmer East.

    Alaska shows a split pattern, with below-normal temperatures favored across much of the mainland, while parts of the southern coast lean above normal. Hawaii is expected to see above-average temperatures statewide.

    Overall, the pattern supports a continuation of a relatively mild January for large portions of the eastern U.S., potentially limiting snow and ice opportunities while increasing the risk of rapid snowmelt in areas that currently have snowpack.

  • Snow Squalls Could Create Hazardous New Year’s Eve Travel Across Delmarva, Maryland, and Pennsylvania

    Snow Squalls Could Create Hazardous New Year’s Eve Travel Across Delmarva, Maryland, and Pennsylvania

    Drivers across Delmarva, Maryland, and much of Pennsylvania are being urged to use caution this New Year’s Eve as a strong Arctic cold front moves through the region, bringing the potential for sudden snow squalls and dangerous travel conditions. While snowfall amounts are expected to be brief and localized, the intensity of these squalls could quickly reduce visibility to near zero and lead to slick, snow-covered roadways in a matter of minutes.

    Forecasters say the greatest risk for snow squalls will develop this evening across western and central Pennsylvania before shifting east overnight into eastern Pennsylvania, northern Maryland, and parts of Delmarva. The squalls may be accompanied by gusty winds, creating whiteout conditions along major travel routes including Interstates 76, 81, 83, 95, and portions of U.S. Route 13 across the Delmarva Peninsula.

    Timing is a major concern, as the snow squalls could impact travel during peak New Year’s Eve festivities and late-night returns home. In Maryland, areas north of the Baltimore Washington corridor stand the best chance of seeing brief but intense snow bursts overnight, while Delmarva may see fast-moving squalls or snow showers capable of briefly coating roadways, particularly in northern and interior sections in the early morning hours.

    Even though total snowfall amounts will be limited, the rapid drop in temperatures behind the front could allow any moisture on roadways to freeze quickly, increasing the risk of icy conditions. Motorists may encounter rapidly changing visibility and road conditions with little advance warning.

    Looking ahead, much colder air settling in behind the front will fuel lake-effect snow across western and north-central Pennsylvania through Friday. While this will not directly impact Delmarva or most of Maryland, it could lead to continued travel disruptions for those heading north or west after the holiday.

    Officials urge drivers to slow down, increase following distance, and avoid unnecessary travel during squalls. Snow squalls are often short-lived but can be just as dangerous as longer-duration winter storms, especially during busy holiday travel periods.

  • A Lot Of Talk About Wintry Weather Jan 6-8th…

    A Lot Of Talk About Wintry Weather Jan 6-8th…

    There has been a ton of speculation over social media about “Major Winter Storm Signal Jan 6-8th” and different variations for click bait and cash grabs for views. For many who know me over the last 15 years, I tell it like it is. And many of these social media pages need to keep their anticipation in check. I will go through the good and the bad for snow lovers with all this hype being shared around the internet about this timeframe.

    So the big take aways is what’s going on with the North America weather pattern changing a bit from this past week to a more colder one. But the biggest issues that people see on these maps is anytime they see a trough in the east immediately go “MAJOR WINTER SIGNAL, MAJOR STORM AHEAD” but there is so much more that goes into play. Yes we are looking at a trough across the eastern US, that’s only the first step. There is some blocking showing up in the arctic with the ECMWF but much weaker with the GFS. Blocking near Greenland helps slow down the overall weather pattern or for all the technical readers out there a -NAO block. So we have two pieces of the puzzle but there is something way more important in my opinion and its what’s going on the west coast.

    And that’s where my excitement starts going down the tubes as a snow lover. We need ridging in the west coast to get the trifecta ingredients. And this is where things start falling short for my liking. Not only that we have polar opposites in guidance between the two major long range models for this range and the placement is not ideal. Ridging along the west coast not only brings the cold air supply with cross polar flow and helps amplify the trough to its east. With this sitting over the Rockies, not the most ideal to get something off our coastlines. I prefer to have it back right at the coast instead but we also have a trough not too far away to the west side. ECMWF is your friend and the GFS is you enemy with the PNA across the west coast. Hard to say which will be correct until one switches as we get closer in time. This is why I have been thinking it’s so dumb to be stating about a storm is happening in this time frame because of the PNA in itself.

    One thing is for sure, we are looking to see some colder weather over in our neck of the woods going into the New Year. As temp anomalies over the next 1-2 week showing increasing confidence of “Below Average Temperatures” in the Mid-Atlantic & New England. Moral of the story, hold your excitement for now and be wary of pages that post this kind of hype and 384 hour snowfall maps claiming this is what’s ahead. It’s just not good and its a spreading terrible false information. It’s a cash grab for getting views and traffic for all the wrong reason. Trust your reliable sources friends.

  • Icy Post Christmas Storm Across The Northern Mid-Atlantic States

    Icy Post Christmas Storm Across The Northern Mid-Atlantic States

    A significant post-Christmas winter storm is expected to create hazardous conditions from the Great Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast through Saturday morning, bringing a complex mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain that will heavily impact travel and infrastructure across the region.

    According to the Weather Prediction Center, this is a multi-hazard winter storm, with the most dangerous impacts tied to ice accumulation and heavy snowfall. A swath of heavy snow is forecast from central New York into southern New England, including portions of northeastern Pennsylvania and the New York City metro area. Many of these locations could see six inches or more of snow, with snowfall rates exceeding one inch per hour at times, leading to rapidly deteriorating road conditions.

    Farther south, the primary concern shifts from snow to ice. Freezing rain and sleet are expected to dominate across portions of Pennsylvania, western and central Maryland, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, creating a dangerous glaze on untreated surfaces. Ice accumulations over a quarter inch are possible in some areas, increasing the risk for tree damage and scattered power outages.

    Northern Maryland Impacts

    Northern Maryland, including areas near and north of the Baltimore metro, is expected to be near the transition zone between snow and freezing rain. This setup raises the risk for significant sleet accumulation followed by freezing rain, which can be particularly hazardous for travel. Roads may quickly become icy, even where surface temperatures hover near freezing. Elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses will be especially prone to icing. Any ice buildup on trees and power lines could result in localized outages and downed limbs.

    Northern Delmarva Concerns

    Across northern Delmarva, including Cecil County, Kent County, and areas near the upper Chesapeake Bay, a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected to develop, particularly late Friday into Friday night. While snowfall totals are likely limited, even light ice accretion could significantly impact travel along major corridors such as I-95, U.S. Route 13, and local secondary roads. Gusty winds combined with ice may further stress trees and utility lines, increasing the risk of isolated power disruptions.

    Travel and Safety Impacts

    The timing of this storm is particularly concerning, as it coincides with post-Christmas travel. Treacherous road conditions are expected to persist into Saturday morning, especially in areas affected by freezing rain and sleet. Visibility reductions, slick surfaces, and rapidly changing precipitation types will make driving dangerous, even for experienced winter drivers.

    Residents across northern Maryland and northern Delmarva are urged to closely monitor forecast updates, avoid unnecessary travel during periods of freezing rain, and prepare for the possibility of power outages. This storm serves as a reminder that ice, even more than snow, can quickly escalate impacts and disrupt daily life across the Mid-Atlantic.

  • An Icy Boxing Day On The Way For The Mid-Atlantic States

    An Icy Boxing Day On The Way For The Mid-Atlantic States

    Its shaping up to be a fairly icy day after Christmas for many across the Mid-Atlantic states Friday into Saturday. A classic “Overrunning Event” to unfold as a warm front moves into arctic air that’s trapped across New England forced by northeast winds ahead of the precip.

    An overrunning event in winter meteorology occurs when warm, moist air is lifted up and over a shallow layer of cold air at the surface. This setup is common ahead of winter storms and often develops north of a warm front. Because cold air is denser, it remains trapped near the ground while warmer air flows over it along sloping isentropic surfaces.

    As the rising warm air cools, clouds and precipitation develop well in advance of the main storm system. In winter, this frequently leads to widespread, long-duration precipitation, often falling as snow, sleet, or freezing rain, depending on the temperature profile of the atmosphere. Overrunning events are typically associated with stratiform precipitation, lower visibility, and steady rather than convective rainfall or snowfall.

    These events can produce significant winter weather impacts, including heavy snow accumulations, ice accretion, and hazardous travel conditions, especially when cold air is reinforced at the surface by high pressure to the north. Overrunning precipitation often marks the initial phase of a winter storm before stronger dynamics and surface low pressure move in.

    With the latest guidance at this time, areas closer towards the Mason-Dixon have the greatest threat for looking at snow and ice accumulations as the cold air will be locked up better in those regions. totals wise at this time is not for certain the amount of snow/ice is expected with this system as we get a bit closer in time. Areas across Central Delmarva will start off with that wintry mix but eventually change over to plain rain as the winds turn a bit more easterly which will bring in that warmer Atlantic air across the region.

  • SNEAKY ICING EVENT ON BOXING DAY DEC 26-27TH?

    SNEAKY ICING EVENT ON BOXING DAY DEC 26-27TH?

    December 26-27th event has been a model guidance nightmare these past few days so that’s why i haven’t really talked much about it. Because at one moment its a 63 degree day with rain and then next minute its a day with accumulating snow and ice. This is very typical back and forth nonsense that happens in the 84-120hr timeframe so i don’t put a whole lot of weight to it. But we are starting to get into the sub 84 timeframe where they begin to get their act together. So here is the setup.

    We will already have a push of arctic air in place out ahead of a weak disturbance with a warm front nosing into the cold air. This is a classic representation of what we call a “Overrunning Event”

    An overrunning event in winter meteorology occurs when warm, moist air is lifted up and over a shallow layer of cold air at the surface. This setup is common ahead of winter storms and often develops north of a warm front. Because cold air is denser, it remains trapped near the ground while warmer air flows over it along sloping isentropic surfaces.

    As the rising warm air cools, clouds and precipitation develop well in advance of the main storm system. In winter, this frequently leads to widespread, long-duration precipitation, often falling as snow, sleet, or freezing rain, depending on the temperature profile of the atmosphere. Overrunning events are typically associated with stratiform precipitation, lower visibility, and steady rather than convective rainfall or snowfall.

    These events can produce significant winter weather impacts, including heavy snow accumulations, ice accretion, and hazardous travel conditions, especially when cold air is reinforced at the surface by high pressure to the north. Overrunning precipitation often marks the initial phase of a winter storm before stronger dynamics and surface low pressure move in.

    With the latest mid day mid range guidance rolling in they are starting to come into light of a icing scenario beginning to unfold across areas of central and northern Delmarva, northern Maryland, and portions of South Jersey. A lot of factors remain in place like will the cold air remain more locked in and keep the warm nose at bay, will the warm nose make it a widespread icing event, or will the warm nose overwhelm the environment and keep it more of a rain threat in the region. Those are the details we need to iron out going later into the week.