Category: Weather

Two major United Nations food agencies are urgently requesting $202 million to help shield 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk nations from the growing threat of an El Niño weather event. The appeal was made Thursday by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme.

The two agencies warn that strong El Niño conditions expected during the second half of 2026 could significantly increase the chances of drought, flooding, and powerful storms across regions of Africa, Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

The 22 countries identified as most vulnerable include Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, and Zimbabwe on the African continent. In the Asia-Pacific region, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Philippines, and East Timor are listed among those at greatest risk. Rounding out the list are Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Venezuela in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The agencies noted that securing the requested funding would allow them to expand their reach beyond the 1.2 million people already being targeted for assistance. Planned aid measures include cash transfers, seeds designed to withstand climate stress, protection for livestock, and flood control efforts.

El Niño is a naturally occurring weather phenomenon caused by a warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, triggered by a weakening of trade winds. It typically occurs every two to seven years and generally lasts between nine and twelve months.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially declared El Niño’s arrival last week, adding that conditions are likely to grow stronger. The agency placed the probability of a very strong or so-called ‘super El Niño’ developing heading into 2027 at 63%.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with the latest information on potential wind impacts.

The graphics display the probability of 34-knot wind speeds affecting different regions over a 120-hour period. According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probabilities were last updated on Thursday, June 18, 2026, at 3:20 a.m. GMT.

Residents are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as conditions continue to be assessed.

Hong Kong’s weather observatory issued its most severe rain warning — known as the black rain signal — on Thursday at 12:55 p.m. local time, ordering schools to close and pushing some businesses to suspend operations as officials warned residents to find shelter and prepare for serious flooding.

The observatory reported on its website that heavy rainfall exceeding 70 millimeters per hour was expected to persist. This marks the second time this year the black rain signal has been activated, with the first occurrence happening just over a week earlier on June 8.

The major financial city, along with much of southern China, has endured several consecutive days of soaking rain driven by an active southwest monsoon and a persistent low-pressure trough in the region.

Strong wind gusts have also been battering the city, with speeds of approximately 80 kilometers — about 50 miles — per hour recorded in Hong Kong’s southwestern district of Tai O, according to the observatory.

The severe weather arrives at an especially inconvenient time, falling just before the Dragon Boat Festival on Friday, which kicks off a three-day weekend during which large numbers of residents are expected to be traveling.

Just across the border in Shenzhen, mainland China, local authorities issued a red rain signal and called on residents to avoid low-lying areas, waterlogged zones, and what officials described as “other dangerous areas.” Officials there also warned of a heightened risk of mountain floods, landslides, and other related disasters.

The National Hurricane Center has released updated wind speed probability graphics for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with the latest outlook on potential wind impacts.

The imagery depicts the probability of 34-knot wind speeds affecting different regions as the storm system continues to be monitored. These graphics are a standard tool used by meteorologists to communicate the range of possible storm impacts.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability graphics were last updated on Thursday, June 18, 2026, at 3:20 a.m. GMT. Residents in potentially affected areas are encouraged to monitor official forecasts for the latest information as conditions may change.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with the latest outlook on the storm system.

The graphics display the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring across the storm’s projected path over a 120-hour period. These probability maps are a standard tool used by meteorologists to communicate the likelihood of hazardous winds reaching specific areas.

The wind speed probability information was last updated Thursday, June 18, 2026, at 2:51 a.m. GMT, according to the National Hurricane Center.

What was once Tropical Storm Arthur has weakened significantly, now classified as a low pressure area hugging the upper Texas coast.

According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 10:00 PM CDT on Wednesday, June 17, the center of the system was positioned near coordinates 29.7 degrees north, 94.5 degrees west, moving to the northeast at approximately 9 miles per hour.

The storm’s minimum central pressure was recorded at 1000 millibars, with maximum sustained winds of around 35 miles per hour — down from its peak tropical storm intensity.

Even though Arthur has lost its tropical storm classification, forecasters are warning that life-threatening flooding remains a serious concern for portions of the southeastern United States. Residents in affected areas are urged to remain cautious and stay informed through local emergency management officials.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its final forecast advisory for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur at 3:00 a.m. UTC on Thursday, June 18, 2026, signaling the end of active storm tracking for this system.

At the time of the final advisory, the storm’s center was pinpointed near 29.7 degrees North latitude and 94.5 degrees West longitude, with that position considered accurate within 30 nautical miles. The system was moving toward the northeast at approximately 8 knots, or roughly 9 miles per hour.

Arthur’s estimated minimum central pressure stood at 1,000 millibars, with maximum sustained winds of 30 knots and gusts reaching up to 40 knots at the time of the report.

Forecasters indicated the storm was expected to fully dissipate by 12:00 p.m. UTC on Thursday. However, the National Hurricane Center noted that the remnants of Arthur could re-emerge over the Atlantic Ocean by Friday. If that occurs, additional information will be available through High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

The advisory was the eighth and final one issued for this storm, designated AL012026. Forecaster Beven authored the final report. Ships within 300 nautical miles of the storm’s last known position were asked to submit reports every three hours.

The National Hurricane Center announced Wednesday night that Arthur has officially been downgraded from a tropical cyclone to a post-tropical low, after the storm’s structure broke down along the Upper Texas coastline.

According to forecasters, surface observations showed that Arthur’s center briefly re-formed near Galveston between approximately 9 and 10 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday following an offshore burst of thunderstorm activity. However, organized storm activity near the center soon disappeared, and the circulation stretched out along the Upper Texas coast — prompting the downgrade. The system is now carrying maximum sustained winds of 30 knots.

The storm’s path remains somewhat uncertain due to the center reformation, but forecasters estimate it is beginning to pick up speed, moving toward the northeast at around 8 knots. The surface center is expected to fall apart later Wednesday night over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana. After that, the remnants of Arthur are forecast to track east-northeastward across the southeastern United States before emerging into the Atlantic Ocean on Friday, continuing out to sea from there.

Although the surface center is expected to dissipate, global weather models indicate it could potentially re-form near the Atlantic coast on Friday, with some strengthening possible as it moves offshore. Forecasters say it remains unclear whether any redevelopment would result from tropical or non-tropical weather processes. As a precaution, marine gale warnings have been issued for portions of the western Atlantic.

Despite losing its tropical cyclone designation, Arthur continues to pose significant dangers. Forecasters warn that heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will remain a major concern across the southeastern United States for the next several days. An elevated tornado risk is also in place for parts of the Southeast through Thursday.

Key hazards outlined by forecasters include: potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle; the possibility of scattered minor river flooding, with isolated moderate to major river flooding; wind gusts reaching tropical-storm force along portions of the Louisiana coast Wednesday night; and coastal flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coasts expected to gradually ease later tonight and into Thursday.

Wednesday night’s update marks the final advisory the National Hurricane Center will issue on Arthur. Rainfall forecasts and flash flood risk outlooks for the storm’s remnants will continue to be available through the Weather Prediction Center.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued Wind Speed Probability Update Number 8 for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur at 3:00 a.m. Coordinated Universal Time on Thursday, June 18, 2026.

At the time of the bulletin, the center of the post-tropical system was located near latitude 29.7 degrees north and longitude 94.5 degrees west. The storm was carrying maximum sustained winds of approximately 30 knots, which equals about 35 miles per hour or 55 kilometers per hour.

The bulletin was designed to provide the probability of sustained wind speeds reaching at least 34 knots (39 mph), 50 knots (58 mph), and 64 knots (74 mph) at specific locations over the following five days. However, forecasters noted that no official forecast existed for the applicable date and time window, meaning no wind speed probability calculations could be generated for any of the listed locations.

The update was issued by Forecaster Beven.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with the latest outlook on potential wind impacts.

The graphics, which display the probability of 34-knot wind speeds over a 120-hour period, were last updated on Thursday, June 18, 2026, at approximately 2:51 a.m. GMT.

Residents in areas that could be affected by the storm’s remnants are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as conditions continue to evolve.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The graphics, which were last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 9:26 p.m. GMT, display the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring over a 120-hour forecast window.

Forecasters are urging residents in potentially affected coastal areas to stay informed and continue monitoring official updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm develops.

The National Hurricane Center has released updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing a visual look at where the storm’s winds could have an impact.

The graphics illustrate the probability of 34-knot wind speeds reaching different areas over a 120-hour forecast window, helping residents and emergency managers gauge potential risk zones.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability data was last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 9:26 p.m. GMT. Residents in potentially affected areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from official weather sources as the storm continues to develop.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with a visual look at where dangerous winds may develop over the coming days.

The graphics depict the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring across affected areas within a 120-hour forecast window. These types of visuals help residents and emergency managers assess potential storm impacts and plan accordingly.

The wind speed probability information was last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 9:26 PM GMT. Residents in potentially affected coastal areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm continues to develop.

Tropical Storm Arthur has re-formed near Galveston, Texas, and is now tracking toward the northeast, bringing with it the threat of life-threatening flooding across portions of the southeastern United States.

According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 7:00 PM Central Daylight Time on Wednesday, June 17, the center of the storm was positioned near coordinates 29.4 degrees north, 94.9 degrees west. Arthur was moving to the northeast at approximately 8 miles per hour.

The storm’s minimum central pressure was recorded at 1000 millibars, with maximum sustained winds of around 40 miles per hour.

Forecasters are urging residents across the affected southeastern states to take the flooding threat seriously, as conditions could become dangerous. Residents in the storm’s path should monitor updates from local emergency management officials and the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center has released updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with a look at where tropical-storm-force winds may develop over the coming days.

The graphics illustrate the probability of 34-knot winds — the threshold for tropical storm conditions — affecting different areas within a 120-hour forecast window.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability data was last updated Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at approximately 9:26 p.m. GMT.

Residents in coastal areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm continues to develop.

Tropical Storm Arthur is posing a serious threat to communities across the southeastern United States, with forecasters warning of life-threatening flooding in the region.

As of 4:00 PM CDT on Wednesday, June 17, the center of Arthur was positioned near coordinates 28.9 degrees north latitude and 96.1 degrees west longitude. The storm was tracking in a north-northeast direction at a forward speed of 7 miles per hour.

Meteorologists recorded a minimum central pressure of 1,001 millibars, with maximum sustained winds reaching approximately 45 miles per hour.

A Tropical Storm Warning continues to be in place for sections of the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. Residents in those areas are urged to take the flooding threat seriously and follow guidance from local emergency officials.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing the latest look at where potentially dangerous winds could develop over the next five days.

The graphics, which track the probability of 34-knot wind speeds, were last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 9:26 PM GMT. These probability maps help forecasters and residents understand the likelihood of tropical storm-force winds reaching specific areas.

Residents in potentially affected coastal regions are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm continues to develop.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated graphical information for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing a visual look at the probability of tropical storm-force winds reaching certain areas.

The graphics specifically display the chances of 34-knot wind speeds occurring within a 120-hour forecast window, giving forecasters and the public a clearer picture of where the storm’s impacts could be felt.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability data was last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 9:00 PM GMT. Residents in potentially affected areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from official weather sources as the storm continues to develop.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued Forecast Advisory Number 7 for Tropical Storm Arthur at 9:00 p.m. UTC on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.

At the time of the advisory, the storm’s center was positioned near 28.9 degrees North latitude and 96.1 degrees West longitude, with that position accurate to within 30 nautical miles. The storm was moving toward the north-northeast at approximately 6 knots, on a heading of about 15 degrees.

Arthur was packing maximum sustained winds of 40 knots — roughly 46 miles per hour — with gusts reaching up to 50 knots. The storm’s estimated minimum central pressure stood at 1001 millibars. Tropical storm-force winds of 34 knots extended up to 150 nautical miles to the southeast of the center.

According to the forecast, Arthur is expected to weaken significantly overnight. By 6:00 a.m. UTC Thursday, June 18, the storm is projected to have degraded into a post-tropical remnant low near 30.8 degrees North and 94.6 degrees West, with maximum winds dropping to around 30 knots and gusts near 40 knots.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Arthur will have fully dissipated by 6:00 p.m. UTC on Thursday, June 18.

Ships within 300 nautical miles of the storm’s center have been asked to submit reports every three hours. Forecaster Reinhart issued the advisory, with the next update scheduled for 3:00 a.m. UTC Thursday.

The National Hurricane Center confirmed Wednesday afternoon that Tropical Storm Arthur came ashore over Matagorda County, Texas, earlier in the day, based on satellite imagery and ground-level weather observations.

Despite making landfall, Arthur’s circulation center has become increasingly disorganized and harder to pinpoint over the past several hours. A broad area of heavy thunderstorm activity continues over the northwestern Gulf of America, but powerful westerly wind shear has pushed that storm activity far away from the actual center of circulation.

Data gathered by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and marine weather stations show that tropical-storm-force winds — including strong gusts — are still occurring within that convection, located well to the east and southeast of the storm’s center. Based on a combination of aircraft data and surface observations, the storm’s current maximum sustained winds are estimated at 40 knots, or about 45 miles per hour.

The storm’s center tracked farther north than forecasters initially anticipated, moving north-northeastward at roughly 6 knots. Most computer forecast models indicate the circulation will fall apart within the next 6 to 12 hours. Wednesday’s updated track forecast shifted the projected path farther inland compared to earlier predictions, though forecasters note that has little practical impact since the most dangerous conditions are occurring well east of the center.

With Arthur now over land and battling strong wind shear along with drier air moving in from the west, further weakening is expected. Forecast models suggest the storm’s associated thunderstorm activity will largely collapse overnight Wednesday. The 12-hour forecast designates Arthur as a remnant low, though forecasters say it could dissipate even sooner than that.

Some weather models — specifically the European and Canadian models — hint at the possibility of a new area of low pressure developing over the western Atlantic later this week or into the weekend, as leftover energy from Arthur moves off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Forecasters say it is unclear how tropical that system might become, and they will continue watching model data closely.

Forecasters are stressing that heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the top hazard from this storm — and that this danger extends far beyond the storm’s center, even after Arthur fully dissipates.

The National Hurricane Center issued three key messages with this forecast discussion:

First, potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding are expected to continue through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Some rivers could see isolated moderate to major flooding, and ongoing heavy rain could keep the flood threat going through the weekend.

Second, tropical-storm-force winds, particularly in gusts, are expected along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines over the next several hours, where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect.

Third, minor to moderate coastal flooding is anticipated along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana shorelines through Wednesday.

Arthur is forecast to be fully dissipated by Thursday evening. This discussion was prepared by Forecaster Reinhart at the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its seventh wind speed probability update for Tropical Storm Arthur at 9 p.m. UTC on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.

At the time of the advisory, the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was positioned near latitude 28.9 North and longitude 96.1 West, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 40 knots — equivalent to 45 mph or 75 km/h.

Forecasters calculated the probability of locations experiencing sustained tropical-storm-force winds of at least 39 mph over the next five days. The data shows the highest cumulative probabilities concentrated along the upper Texas coast.

Freeport, Texas faces a 90 percent cumulative chance of encountering tropical-storm-force winds during the forecast period, while Galveston, Texas carries an 82 percent cumulative probability. High Island, Texas sits at 66 percent, and Matagorda, Texas has a 38 percent cumulative chance.

Further inland and along the Louisiana border, Port Arthur, Texas has a 32 percent cumulative probability of tropical-storm-force winds. Kountze, Texas stands at 22 percent, while Port O’Connor, Texas is at 11 percent.

Communities in southwest Louisiana, including Lake Charles and Cameron, each carry an 8 percent cumulative probability of tropical-storm-force winds. Fort Polk, Louisiana sits at 3 percent. Houston, Texas and Jasper, Texas each show a 7 to 8 percent cumulative probability.

No locations in the forecast area currently show significant probabilities of winds reaching 58 mph or higher during the five-day outlook period.

The advisory was prepared by Forecaster Reinhart at the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named Atlantic storm of the 2026 hurricane season.

The latest imagery, released Wednesday, June 17, 2026, depicts the probability of 34-knot wind speeds associated with the storm over a 120-hour forecast period.

Residents in potentially affected coastal areas are encouraged to monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm continues to develop.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with the latest outlook on the storm’s potential impact.

The graphics display the probability of 34-knot wind speeds affecting different regions over a 120-hour forecast window. These probability maps are a standard tool used by meteorologists to communicate the range of possible storm impacts.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability data was last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 4:33 PM GMT.

Residents in potentially affected coastal areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm continues to develop.

The National Hurricane Center has released updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing forecasters and residents with the latest outlook on the storm’s potential impact.

The graphics illustrate the probability of 34-knot wind speeds affecting different areas over a 120-hour forecast period. These probability maps help communities assess their level of risk as the storm develops.

The wind speed probability data was last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 4:33 PM GMT. Residents in potentially affected areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm continues to be tracked.

Tropical Storm Arthur is posing a serious threat to coastal communities along the Gulf of Mexico, with a Tropical Storm Warning still in place for sections of the Texas and Louisiana coastline.

Forecasters are also warning of life-threatening flooding expected to impact portions of the southeastern United States as the storm pushes inland.

According to the latest update issued at 1:00 PM Central Daylight Time on Wednesday, June 17, the center of Arthur was positioned near coordinates 28.9 degrees north, 95.7 degrees west. The storm was tracking to the northeast at approximately 9 miles per hour.

Arthur’s minimum central pressure was recorded at 1,000 millibars, with maximum sustained winds clocking in at around 45 miles per hour.

Residents in the affected areas are urged to monitor local emergency management guidance and be prepared for rapidly changing conditions as the storm continues to move through the region.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with the latest outlook on the storm’s potential impact.

The graphics display the probability of 34-knot wind speeds affecting different areas over a 120-hour forecast window. This type of information helps emergency managers and residents assess the likelihood of tropical storm-force winds reaching their locations.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability data was last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 16:33 GMT. Residents in potentially affected areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm continues to develop.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a brief update Wednesday morning indicating that a special advisory for Tropical Storm Arthur was set to be released shortly after 11:27 AM CDT.

According to the update, the purpose of the upcoming special advisory is to extend the Tropical Storm Warning southward to Sargent, Texas, expanding the area under the warning along the Texas Gulf Coast.

The update was authored by Forecaster Kelly at the National Hurricane Center. Additional details on the storm’s track, intensity, and full warning zones were expected to be included in the special advisory to follow.

Tropical Storm Arthur is posing a serious threat to parts of the southeastern United States, with forecasters warning that life-threatening flooding is expected as the storm pushes inland.

According to the latest update issued at 11:30 AM CDT on Wednesday, June 17, the center of Arthur was positioned near coordinates 28.8 degrees north, 95.5 degrees west. The storm was tracking to the northeast at approximately 9 miles per hour.

Meteorologists recorded a minimum central pressure of 999 millibars, with maximum sustained winds clocking in at around 45 miles per hour. A tropical storm warning has been extended further southward as the system continues to develop.

Authorities are urging residents in the storm’s path to take the flooding threat seriously, as conditions could become dangerous and potentially deadly across portions of the Southeast.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued Special Forecast Advisory Number 6 for Tropical Storm Arthur at 4:30 p.m. UTC on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.

As of the advisory, the storm’s center was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 95.5 West, with that position accurate to within 30 nautical miles. The storm was moving toward the northeast at approximately 8 knots, or about 9 miles per hour.

Arthur had maximum sustained winds of 40 knots — roughly 46 miles per hour — with gusts reaching up to 50 knots. The storm’s estimated minimum central pressure stood at 999 millibars. Tropical storm-force winds of 34 knots extended outward 150 nautical miles to the northeast and southeast of the center.

According to the forecast, Arthur was expected to move inland by midnight Wednesday night, at which point maximum winds were projected to drop to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. By Thursday morning, the system was forecast to weaken further into a post-tropical remnant low near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 91.6 West, with winds down to 20 knots.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts the storm will fully dissipate by Thursday evening, June 19.

The advisory was issued by Forecaster Reinhart. The next full advisory was scheduled for 9:00 p.m. UTC Wednesday, with an intermediate public advisory expected at 6:00 p.m. UTC.

Ships within 300 miles of the storm’s center were asked to submit reports every three hours to assist in tracking the system.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with the latest outlook on where dangerous winds may be felt.

The graphics depict the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring across a 120-hour forecast window, helping residents in potentially affected areas prepare for the storm’s impact.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability data was last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 4:33 PM GMT. Residents in coastal areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as Tropical Storm Arthur continues to develop.

The National Hurricane Center issued a special advisory Wednesday morning, announcing the extension of a Tropical Storm Warning along the Upper Texas coast southward to Sargent, Texas. The advisory, issued at 11:30 a.m. CDT on June 17, 2026, noted that recent surface observations and readings from NOAA buoy 42035 show maximum sustained winds near 40 knots, with the storm’s minimum pressure dropping to 999 millibars.

The system, now officially designated as Tropical Storm Arthur, was identified after a combination of data sources confirmed it had reached tropical storm strength. A 12:00 UTC Dvorak classification from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch showed enough organized convective activity to classify it as a sheared tropical cyclone. Buoy readings and a ship report confirmed tropical-storm-force winds within the storm’s convective area, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters flying through the system recorded peak flight-level winds up to 52 knots at 850 millibars — further confirming tropical storm intensity. Arthur was officially designated with an initial intensity of 35 knots.

Arthur is accelerating toward the northeast at roughly 8 knots, carried along by strengthening southwesterly flow tied to a low- to mid-level trough. Forecasters expect the storm’s center to track along or over the Texas coast before pushing inland across southeastern Texas and into southwestern Louisiana by Wednesday night. The National Hurricane Center’s updated track forecast closely mirrors its previous projection.

Due to persistent westerly wind shear and Arthur’s nearness to land, forecasters say significant strengthening is unlikely. Tropical-storm-force winds are currently limited to the storm’s eastern half and are primarily affecting offshore waters. Arthur is expected to hold its current intensity while over water, then begin weakening once it moves inland tonight. Global weather models suggest the storm will eventually break apart into a trough, and forecasters note that Arthur should dissipate before the 24-hour forecast point, which was included mainly for continuity.

Forecasters are also watching for the possibility of new low pressure development over the western Atlantic later this week or over the weekend, as leftover energy from Arthur moves off the southeastern U.S. coast. The nature of that potential system remains uncertain, and the National Hurricane Center says it will continue tracking model trends to assess any risk of tropical cyclone formation.

The primary danger from Arthur is heavy rainfall and the potential for life-threatening flash flooding. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the Upper Texas coast to High Island based on the latest observations.

Key threats identified by the National Hurricane Center include:

Flash and urban flooding: Potentially life-threatening flooding is expected through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Flooding is also possible near the Upper Texas coast, and ongoing heavy rain could extend the threat into the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds: Wind impacts are expected along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coasts Wednesday, from High Island to Morgan City, where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect.

Coastal flooding: Minor to moderate coastal flooding is anticipated along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana shorelines throughout the day.

The forecast calls for Arthur to weaken to a remnant low by 24 hours and fully dissipate within 36 hours. The advisory was prepared by Forecaster Reinhart.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami released its sixth special wind speed probability update for Tropical Storm Arthur on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 12:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time.

At the time of the report, the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 28.8 North and longitude 95.5 West. The storm was producing maximum sustained winds of approximately 40 knots — equivalent to 45 miles per hour or 75 kilometers per hour.

The bulletin provided the probability that sustained winds of at least 39 mph, 58 mph, or 74 mph could affect specific coastal locations over the following five days. These probabilities are broken into individual time periods as well as cumulative totals from Wednesday through Monday.

According to the data, Galveston, Texas carried the highest cumulative probability of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds of at least 39 mph, at 16 percent. Cameron, Louisiana followed with a 7 percent cumulative probability. Matagorda, Texas also showed a 7 percent cumulative chance, while Port O’Connor had a 3 percent cumulative probability of reaching those wind thresholds.

No locations in the forecast showed meaningful probabilities for winds reaching 58 mph or higher based on the five-day outlook.

The update was issued by forecaster Reinhart at the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center has released updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing the latest outlook on where dangerous winds may impact coastal areas.

The graphics, which track the probability of 34-knot wind speeds over a 120-hour period, were last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 4:33 PM GMT.

Residents and boaters in potentially affected areas are encouraged to stay informed and monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm continues to develop.

The National Hurricane Center has released updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with the latest outlook on where potentially dangerous winds could reach.

The graphics, which track the probability of 34-knot wind speeds, were last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 15:21 GMT. The 120-hour forecast window gives residents and emergency managers an extended look at where the storm’s winds may have an impact.

Residents in potentially affected areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm continues to develop.

MIAMI (AP) — The Atlantic hurricane season got off to an active start Wednesday as the first tropical storm of the year took shape near the Gulf Coast, threatening Texas, Louisiana, and surrounding states with heavy downpours and dangerous flash flooding, according to meteorologists.

Tropical Storm Arthur developed from a loosely organized group of storm systems that had already been producing rainfall for several days across parts of eastern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center, based in Miami, indicated that atmospheric conditions were favorable for a brief tropical storm to develop.

Forecasters expect Arthur to track toward the northwestern Gulf Coast, with Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi all in its path. Residents in those areas could experience gusty winds and coastal flooding as the storm moves onshore.

National Hurricane Center director Michael Brennan warned Tuesday that the storm’s impact may not end quickly. “Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend,” Brennan said.

Tropical Storm Arthur has formed near the middle Texas coast, according to the National Hurricane Center, marking an early-season storm that forecasters say could bring dangerous flooding to portions of the southeastern United States.

As of 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time on Wednesday, June 17, the storm’s center was positioned near coordinates 28.6 degrees north latitude and 95.8 degrees west longitude. Arthur was tracking toward the northeast at approximately 9 miles per hour.

The storm’s minimum central pressure was recorded at 1001 millibars, with maximum sustained winds clocking in at around 40 mph — just above the threshold needed for tropical storm classification.

Forecasters are warning that life-threatening flooding is expected across parts of the southeastern United States as the system continues to move inland. Residents in affected areas are encouraged to follow guidance from local emergency management officials and stay updated on the latest forecasts.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued Forecast Advisory Number 5 for Tropical Storm Arthur at 3:00 p.m. UTC on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.

As of the advisory, the storm’s center was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 95.8 West. The position is considered accurate within 40 nautical miles. Arthur was moving toward the northeast at approximately 8 knots, or about 45 degrees on the compass.

The storm had a minimum central pressure of 1001 millibars, with maximum sustained winds of 35 knots and gusts reaching up to 45 knots. Tropical storm-force winds of 34 knots or greater extended 150 nautical miles to the northeast and 150 nautical miles to the southeast of the center.

Looking ahead, forecasters expect Arthur to move inland by midnight UTC on June 18, at which point winds are expected to drop to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. By noon UTC on June 18, the system is forecast to downgrade to a post-tropical remnant low near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 91.6 West, with winds of 20 knots and gusts to 30 knots.

The storm is expected to fully dissipate by midnight UTC on June 19, 2026.

The National Hurricane Center is requesting ship reports every three hours from vessels within 300 miles of the storm’s current position. The next full advisory was scheduled for 9:00 p.m. UTC on June 17, with an intermediate public advisory expected at 6:00 p.m. UTC. Forecaster Reinhart issued this advisory.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami officially upgraded a low-pressure system near the middle Texas coast to Tropical Storm Arthur on Wednesday morning, June 17, 2026, citing growing evidence of tropical storm conditions developing around the storm’s center.

Forecasters say the system has been producing sustained thunderstorm activity well to the east of its center. A morning analysis using a standard storm classification method found enough organization to designate it as a sheared tropical cyclone. Buoy readings and a report from a nearby ship confirmed tropical-storm-force winds within that storm activity. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying into the storm recorded peak upper-level winds of up to 52 knots, further supporting the tropical storm designation. Based on all of that data, Arthur was assigned an initial intensity of 35 knots.

The storm is beginning to pick up speed, moving to the northeast at about 8 knots as stronger winds in the atmosphere push it along. Forecasters say Arthur’s center is expected to move along or over the Texas coast Wednesday and then push inland across southeastern Texas and into southwestern Louisiana by Wednesday night. The forecast track has not changed significantly from earlier projections.

Forecasters do not expect much additional strengthening before the storm moves ashore. Strong winds from the west are tearing at the storm’s structure, and its close proximity to land limits any further development. Tropical-storm-force winds are currently confined to the eastern side of the storm and are mainly affecting offshore waters. Arthur is expected to hold its current intensity while over water, then begin weakening once it moves inland Wednesday night. Computer weather models suggest the storm will break apart into a trough of low pressure shortly after landfall, and forecasters expect Arthur to fully dissipate before the 24-hour forecast point — though that point was included in the forecast for consistency.

Weather models are also showing a signal for possible low-pressure development over the western Atlantic later this week or into the weekend, as energy from Arthur emerges off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Forecasters say the exact nature of that potential system is still unclear and will continue to be monitored for any signs of tropical cyclone formation.

The primary danger from Arthur is heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the upper Texas coast to High Island based on the latest observations.

Key Hazards:

Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding are expected through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle, with possible flooding near the upper Texas coast. Heavy ongoing rainfall could extend the flood threat into the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts Wednesday, from High Island to Morgan City, where a Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding is also expected along portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines Wednesday.

The forecast calls for Arthur to be at 30 knots and inland by Wednesday night, weakening to 20 knots by Thursday morning, and fully dissipated by Thursday evening. This forecast was prepared by Forecaster Reinhart.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its fifth wind speed probability update for Tropical Storm Arthur on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 3:00 p.m. Coordinated Universal Time.

At the time of the advisory, the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was positioned near latitude 28.6 North and longitude 95.8 West, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 35 knots — equivalent to 40 miles per hour or 65 kilometers per hour.

The advisory outlines the probability of locations experiencing sustained wind speeds reaching at least 39 mph (tropical storm force), 58 mph, or 74 mph over the next five days. These probabilities are broken down into individual time periods as well as cumulative chances from Wednesday through the following Monday.

Among the locations listed in the probability table, Galveston, Texas, carries the highest cumulative chance of seeing tropical-storm-force winds at 16 percent. Cameron, Louisiana, follows with a 7 percent cumulative probability, while Matagorda, Texas, also shows a 7 percent cumulative chance. Port O’Connor, Texas, has the lowest listed probability at 3 percent cumulative.

None of the listed locations showed meaningful probabilities for winds reaching 58 mph or higher, suggesting Arthur is not expected to significantly intensify as it affects these coastal communities.

The advisory was prepared by Forecaster Reinhart at the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center has released updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with the latest information on where tropical-storm-force winds may occur.

The graphics depict the probability of 34-knot winds — the threshold for tropical storm conditions — reaching various locations over a five-day, or 120-hour, forecast window.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability data was last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at approximately 2:56 p.m. GMT.

Residents in potentially affected areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as Tropical Storm Arthur continues to develop.

The National Hurricane Center has issued wind speed probability graphics for a system designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

The graphics show the likelihood of 34-knot wind speeds affecting various areas over a 120-hour period. According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability information was last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 9:21 a.m. GMT.

Residents are encouraged to continue monitoring the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates as this system develops.

A developing tropical system is moving up the middle Texas coastline and poses a serious flooding threat to portions of the southeastern United States, according to forecasters.

As of 7:00 AM Central Daylight Time on Wednesday, June 17, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located near coordinates 28.3 degrees north, 96.2 degrees west. The system was tracking to the northeast at approximately 7 miles per hour.

The storm’s minimum central pressure was recorded at 1002 millibars, with maximum sustained winds of about 30 miles per hour.

Forecasters are warning that the system is expected to produce life-threatening flooding across portions of the southeastern United States as it continues to move inland.

Weather forecasters have issued wind speed probability graphics for a system designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One, with the latest update posted on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.

The graphics, released by the National Hurricane Center, illustrate the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring within a 120-hour forecast window. These types of probability maps help residents and emergency managers understand the likelihood of tropical-force winds reaching various areas as the storm system develops.

Forecasters are continuing to monitor the system closely. Anyone in potentially affected regions is encouraged to keep a close watch on official weather updates as conditions evolve.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, with the latest data released on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 9:21 a.m. GMT.

The graphics show the probability of 34-knot wind speeds affecting various areas over a 120-hour forecast period. Forecasters will continue to monitor the storm system as it develops.

Residents in potentially affected coastal regions are encouraged to stay informed and follow guidance from local emergency management officials as the situation evolves.

A developing tropical system is tracking northeastward along the middle Texas coast and is raising serious concerns about life-threatening flooding across portions of the southeastern United States.

According to a 4:00 AM CDT update issued Wednesday, June 17, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was positioned near latitude 28.0 north, longitude 96.7 west. The storm was moving to the northeast at approximately 6 miles per hour.

The system’s minimum central pressure was recorded at 1003 millibars, with maximum sustained winds of roughly 30 mph. While the winds remain relatively modest at this stage, forecasters are emphasizing the flooding threat as the primary danger for communities in the storm’s path.

Residents across the southeastern United States are urged to monitor updates from weather officials and be prepared for rapidly changing conditions as the system continues to move inland.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued Forecast Advisory Number 4 for Potential Tropical Cyclone One at 9:00 a.m. UTC on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.

As of that advisory, the center of the system was located near 28.0 degrees north latitude and 96.7 degrees west longitude, with the position considered accurate within 40 nautical miles. The storm was moving toward the northeast at approximately 5 knots, or about 6 miles per hour.

The system had a minimum central pressure of 1003 millibars at the time of the advisory. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 25 knots, with gusts reaching up to 35 knots.

Forecasters expected the system to strengthen into a tropical cyclone by 6:00 p.m. UTC on Wednesday, with maximum sustained winds increasing to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots, placing it near 29.1 degrees north and 95.2 degrees west.

By early Thursday morning, June 18, the system was forecast to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low with maximum sustained winds dropping back to 25 knots. The storm was expected to fully dissipate by Wednesday evening, June 18.

The advisory was issued by forecaster Berg. Ships within 300 miles of the system’s center were asked to submit reports every three hours. The next full advisory was scheduled for 3:00 p.m. UTC on Wednesday.

A disorganized low pressure system hovering near the middle Texas coastline is showing little sign of developing into a tropical cyclone, according to a 4:00 AM CDT Wednesday forecast discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center.

Offshore buoy readings confirm the system’s maximum sustained winds are holding at 25 knots. While a band of deep thunderstorm activity has developed over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico since the previous advisory, powerful westerly wind shear — blowing at 25 to 30 knots — has displaced that convection more than 120 nautical miles to the east and southeast of the low’s center. Because of this separation, forecasters at the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch rated the system as “Too Weak To Classify,” meaning it lacks the organized storm structure required to be officially named a tropical cyclone.

The system is currently drifting to the northeast at about 5 knots. As low- to mid-level winds strengthen from the southwest and a weather trough approaches from the northwest, the system is expected to pick up speed throughout Wednesday. The low’s center is forecast to straddle the Texas coastline for much of the day before pushing inland over eastern Texas or Louisiana by Wednesday night.

Forecasters say the chances of this system achieving tropical cyclone status appear to be fading. With the center not expected to spend enough time over open Gulf waters and wind shear remaining strong through the next 12 hours, organization is unlikely before the system moves ashore. Even so, winds could still strengthen somewhat in areas well east of the center during the day, and the official forecast still shows a peak of 35 knots at the 12-hour mark. All major global weather models then show the system breaking apart into a trough over Louisiana by Wednesday night, with the official forecast classifying it as a remnant low at 24 hours — though complete dissipation before that point is also possible.

Looking further ahead, forecasters are watching the leftover low-level energy as it tracks eastward across the southeastern United States on Thursday and Friday. The European, Canadian, and United Kingdom weather models each suggest a new low pressure system could redevelop — particularly if the remnant circulation moves back offshore over the western Atlantic. Forecasters say they will continue monitoring model trends for any potential tropical development over the western Atlantic later this week or into the weekend.

Regardless of whether the system ever achieves tropical cyclone status, the National Hurricane Center is emphasizing that heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the primary dangers.

Key Hazards:

Life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding are expected through Thursday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle, with possible flooding also near the upper Texas coast. Ongoing heavy rain could keep the flood threat going into the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast between Sabine Pass and Morgan City, where a Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding is also anticipated along portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana shorelines on Wednesday.

This forecast discussion was prepared by Forecaster Berg at the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its fourth wind speed probability update Wednesday morning for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, a developing system being closely watched in the Gulf of Mexico.

As of 9 a.m. Coordinated Universal Time on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, the center of the system was positioned near latitude 28.0 North and longitude 96.7 West, with maximum sustained winds clocking in at approximately 25 knots — roughly 30 miles per hour or 45 kilometers per hour.

Forecasters are calculating the chances that several Gulf Coast communities could experience sustained wind speeds reaching tropical storm force or higher over the coming five days. The probability data covers wind thresholds of 39 mph, 58 mph, and 74 mph.

Among the locations being monitored, Galveston, Texas carries an 18 percent chance of seeing at least 39 mph winds during the first 12-hour forecast period, with a cumulative probability of 20 percent through the full five-day outlook. Matagorda, Texas shows an 11 percent onset probability for the same wind threshold in that opening period.

Cameron, Louisiana has a 10 percent cumulative probability of reaching tropical storm-force winds, while Lake Charles carries a 3 percent cumulative chance. Port O’Connor and High Island, Texas are also included in the tracking data with lower probability figures.

The forecast was prepared by forecaster Berg at the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center has issued wind speed probability graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, tracking the system’s potential impact over the next five days.

The graphic shows the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring within a 120-hour forecast window. The information was last updated Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 8:41 AM GMT.

Residents are encouraged to monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center as the system continues to be evaluated.

The National Hurricane Center has issued wind speed probability graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, tracking the system’s potential development and impact over the next five days.

The graphic, designated for Atlantic storm AL012026, shows the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring within a 120-hour forecast window.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability information was last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 3:22 AM GMT. Residents and interests in potentially affected areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as the system continues to be evaluated.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, designated as system AL012026 in the Atlantic basin.

The graphics show the probability of 34-knot or higher wind speeds affecting various areas over a 120-hour forecast period. These probabilities help residents and emergency managers assess the likelihood of tropical-force winds reaching their locations.

The wind speed probability information was last updated Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 3:22 a.m. GMT. Forecasters urge those in potentially affected regions to continue tracking the system as it develops and to follow guidance from local emergency management officials.

A developing low pressure system is tracking northeastward along the middle Texas coastline, and forecasters are warning it could bring life-threatening flooding to portions of Texas and Louisiana.

According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 1:00 AM Central Time on Wednesday, June 17, the center of the system — designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One — was located near the Texas coast at coordinates 27.7 degrees north, 97.2 degrees west.

The storm was moving to the northeast at approximately 5 miles per hour. It had a minimum central pressure of 1,004 millibars, with maximum sustained winds of around 30 miles per hour.

While the system has not yet reached tropical storm strength, forecasters say the flooding risk is significant and could prove deadly for residents in its path across the Gulf Coast region.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a developing weather system in the Atlantic Ocean, identified as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

Wind speed probability graphics for the system were last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 3:22 a.m. GMT, according to information released by the National Hurricane Center.

The graphics show the probability of 34-knot wind speeds affecting various areas over a 120-hour period as forecasters continue to monitor the storm’s development and potential track.

Residents along the Atlantic coast are encouraged to monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center as the system continues to be evaluated by meteorologists.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated forecast graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, tracking the system’s potential wind impacts across affected areas.

The latest wind speed probability graphic, showing the likelihood of 34-knot or higher winds over a 120-hour period, was last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 3:22 AM GMT.

Residents and boaters in potentially affected regions are encouraged to keep a close eye on updates from the National Hurricane Center as forecasters continue to monitor this developing system.

A potentially dangerous tropical system has developed near the Texas coast, prompting urgent warnings from forecasters about the risk of life-threatening flooding across portions of Texas and Louisiana.

According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 10:00 PM CDT on Tuesday, June 16, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located near coordinates 27.6 degrees north latitude and 97.1 degrees west longitude. The system was moving to the northeast at approximately 6 miles per hour.

The storm’s minimum central pressure was recorded at 1004 millibars, with maximum sustained winds of around 30 miles per hour at the time of the advisory.

Forecasters are emphasizing that despite the relatively low wind speeds, the primary danger from this system is the potential for significant and life-threatening flooding in the affected regions of Texas and Louisiana. Residents in those areas are urged to monitor updates closely and follow guidance from local emergency management officials.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a disorganized weather disturbance that is beginning to push into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and forecasters say it could develop into a tropical storm as early as Wednesday.

As of 10:00 PM CDT Tuesday, June 16, 2026, the system — designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One — had sustained winds of around 25 knots, or about 30 miles per hour. Forecasters noted that strong westerly wind shear is disrupting the storm’s structure, pushing most of the heavy rainfall away from the center of circulation. Because of this, the system has not yet qualified as a full tropical cyclone.

Despite its relatively weak winds, the storm is expected to move northeastward, running just off the Texas coastline before likely coming back onshore late Wednesday or Wednesday night. The National Hurricane Center says the system could gain some strength while it is briefly over the warm Gulf waters, but ongoing wind shear is expected to limit how powerful it becomes before landfall.

The official forecast calls for the system to reach tropical storm strength on Wednesday, with maximum winds around 35 to 40 knots before weakening rapidly once inland. Forecasters expect the system to dissipate entirely by Friday.

Regardless of whether it officially becomes a named tropical storm, forecasters are emphasizing that heavy rainfall and flash flooding represent the most dangerous threats from this system.

The National Hurricane Center issued the following key warnings:

Life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding is likely through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, with the threat also extending near the Upper Texas coast. Flash flooding is additionally possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through the end of the week, and prolonged rainfall could push the flood threat into the weekend.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass to Morgan City, where tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Wednesday.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding is also anticipated along parts of the Upper Texas and Louisiana shorelines.

The forecast discussion was issued by forecasters Pasch and Adams at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its third advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One early Wednesday morning, tracking a disorganized but developing weather system in the Gulf of Mexico.

As of 3:00 a.m. UTC on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, the center of the system was located near 27.6 degrees north latitude and 97.1 degrees west longitude. Forecasters say the position is accurate within about 40 nautical miles.

The system is currently moving toward the northeast at approximately 5 knots, or roughly 6 miles per hour. It is producing maximum sustained winds of 25 knots — about 29 miles per hour — with gusts reaching up to 35 knots.

The estimated minimum central pressure stands at 1004 millibars. Forecasters note that wind and sea conditions vary significantly from one side of the storm to the other.

Looking ahead, the National Hurricane Center expects the system to reach tropical cyclone status by Wednesday afternoon, with maximum winds climbing to 30 knots. By early Thursday morning, the system is forecast to be inland, with winds increasing to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots.

The system is expected to weaken significantly once inland, dropping to 20-knot winds by Thursday afternoon. Forecasters project the system will fully dissipate by early Friday, June 19.

The advisory was prepared by forecasters Pasch and Adams. The next full advisory is scheduled for 9:00 a.m. UTC Wednesday, with an intermediate public advisory expected at 6:00 a.m. UTC. Ships within 300 miles of the storm’s center have been asked to submit reports every three hours.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its third wind speed probability bulletin for Potential Tropical Cyclone One at 3:00 a.m. Coordinated Universal Time on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.

At the time of the bulletin, the center of the storm system was located near latitude 27.6 degrees north and longitude 97.1 degrees west, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 25 knots — equal to about 30 miles per hour or 45 kilometers per hour.

The bulletin outlines the probability of sustained wind speeds reaching at least 34 knots (39 mph), 50 knots (58 mph), and 64 knots (74 mph) at specific locations over the next five days.

Among the locations with the highest cumulative chances of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of at least 34 knots, Cameron, Louisiana tops the list at 30 percent. Galveston, Texas showed a 17 percent cumulative probability, while Lake Charles, Louisiana came in at 9 percent.

Other locations with notable probabilities include Lafayette, Louisiana at 6 percent, Port Arthur, Texas at 5 percent, and Alexandria, Louisiana and New Iberia, Louisiana each at 4 percent. Fort Polk, Louisiana, High Island, Texas, Matagorda, Texas, and Port O’Connor, Texas also appear in the bulletin with lower cumulative probabilities.

The bulletin was prepared by forecaster Pasch at the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center has issued wind speed probability graphics for a system designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One, offering forecasters and the public a look at where tropical-storm-force winds could develop over the next several days.

The graphics, which show the probability of 34-knot or greater wind speeds over a 120-hour period, were last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at approximately 2:39 a.m. GMT.

Residents and boaters in potentially affected areas are encouraged to keep a close eye on official updates from the National Hurricane Center as the system continues to be monitored.

The National Hurricane Center has issued wind speed probability graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, tracking the storm system’s potential impact across the region.

The graphics display the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring within a 120-hour forecast window. These probability maps help residents and emergency managers assess the likelihood of tropical storm-force winds reaching their areas.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability information was last updated on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, at 9:21 PM GMT. Residents in potentially affected areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as the system develops.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated forecast graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, tracking the system’s potential wind impacts across affected areas.

The latest wind speed probability graphics, which show the likelihood of 34-knot or higher winds reaching various locations, were updated on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, at approximately 9:21 p.m. GMT.

Forecasters are continuing to monitor the development of this potential tropical system. Residents and communities in areas that could be affected are encouraged to stay informed and follow guidance from the National Hurricane Center as the storm’s track and intensity become clearer.

Federal weather forecasters are warning of life-threatening flooding across portions of Texas and Louisiana as a developing tropical weather system moves toward the region.

As of 7:00 PM Central Daylight Time on Tuesday, June 16, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located near coordinates 27.6 degrees north latitude and 97.3 degrees west longitude. The system was moving to the northeast at approximately 6 miles per hour.

The storm’s minimum central pressure was recorded at 1004 millibars, with maximum sustained winds of around 30 miles per hour.

Authorities are urging residents in the threatened areas to take the flooding risk seriously and stay informed as the system continues to develop and move inland.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, designated as system AL012026 in the Atlantic basin.

The graphics, which were last updated on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, show the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring within a 120-hour forecast window.

Forecasters are continuing to monitor the development of this potential tropical system. Residents in areas that could be affected are encouraged to keep a close eye on official updates from the National Hurricane Center as conditions evolve.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, identified in forecasting systems as AL012026.

The latest imagery shows the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring within a 120-hour forecast window. These graphics are used by forecasters and emergency managers to assess the likelihood of tropical storm-force winds reaching various areas.

The wind speed probability data was last updated on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, at 9:21 p.m. GMT. Forecasters will continue to monitor the system and issue updated graphics as the storm develops.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated forecast graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, tracking the system’s potential wind impacts across a broad area.

The latest wind speed probability graphics, designated for the Atlantic storm system identified as AL012026, were last updated on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, at approximately 9:21 PM GMT.

The graphics depict the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring within a 120-hour forecast window, giving forecasters and the public a clearer picture of where tropical-force winds may be felt as the system develops.

Residents and boaters in potentially affected coastal areas are encouraged to stay informed and follow guidance from the National Hurricane Center as the storm system continues to be monitored.

Dangerous flash flooding continues to threaten parts of Texas and Louisiana as Potential Tropical Cyclone One churns along the Gulf Coast, prompting forecasters to issue a tropical storm warning for sections of the Louisiana shoreline.

According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 4:00 PM Central Daylight Time on Tuesday, June 16, the center of the storm was positioned near coordinates 27.3 degrees north latitude and 97.6 degrees west longitude. The system was tracking toward the northeast at approximately 6 miles per hour.

The storm’s minimum central pressure was measured at 1005 millibars, with maximum sustained winds clocking in at roughly 30 miles per hour. While the winds remain relatively modest, the storm’s primary threat is the heavy rainfall driving flash flooding conditions across the affected region.

Residents in the warned areas along the Louisiana coast are urged to monitor updates from local emergency management officials and take precautions against rapidly rising water.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its second forecast advisory Tuesday evening for a developing weather system being tracked in the Gulf of Mexico, designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

As of 9:00 p.m. UTC on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, the center of the system was located near 27.3 degrees north latitude and 97.6 degrees west longitude. Forecasters say the position is accurate within about 45 nautical miles.

The system is currently moving toward the northeast at approximately 5 knots, with a minimum central pressure of 1005 millibars. Maximum sustained winds are currently at 25 knots, with gusts reaching up to 35 knots.

According to the forecast, the system is expected to strengthen into a tropical cyclone by early Wednesday morning, June 17, with maximum winds climbing to 30 knots and gusts up to 40 knots. By Wednesday evening, winds could reach 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots as the storm moves toward the Louisiana coast.

The system is then forecast to move inland by early Thursday morning, June 18, with weakening winds of 25 knots and gusts to 35 knots. Forecasters expect the system to fully dissipate by Thursday evening.

The National Hurricane Center is requesting ship reports every three hours from vessels within 300 nautical miles of the storm’s center. Forecaster Blake issued the advisory, with the next update scheduled for 3:00 a.m. UTC on Wednesday, June 17.

A low-pressure system churning in the Gulf of Mexico is edging closer to tropical storm status, according to the latest forecast discussion issued Tuesday afternoon by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

As of 4:00 PM CDT Tuesday, the system — currently classified as Potential Tropical Cyclone One — is producing scattered, disorganized thunderstorm activity mostly over water, concentrated in its eastern half. Forecasters noted that the storm’s low-level center has become more clearly defined throughout the day, supported by satellite imagery, surface observations, and dropping air pressure readings. Despite the improvement, the system still falls just short of the criteria needed to be upgraded to a tropical depression, lacking a well-defined center and consistent storm activity. Its current wind intensity is estimated at 25 knots, or about 30 miles per hour.

The system has been drifting slowly to the northeast. Forecasters expect it to move offshore of south Texas Tuesday night before picking up speed along the coast on Wednesday. That acceleration is being driven by a mid-latitude weather trough positioned over the eastern United States. Forecast models show the system tracking very close to the Texas coastline on Wednesday before moving back onshore late Wednesday or Wednesday night. The storm’s circulation is then expected to break down quickly over central Louisiana on Thursday.

There is potential for some strengthening on Wednesday as the system spends time over the warm waters of the Gulf and interacts with upper-level wind patterns. Most forecast models indicate the system could reach tropical storm strength by Wednesday. The official forecast largely mirrors the previous update.

Regardless of whether the system achieves tropical cyclone status, forecasters are warning that dangerous rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the top concerns.

The National Hurricane Center outlined three key hazards associated with the storm:

First, potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding is considered likely through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, with flash flooding also possible near the Upper Texas coast. Additional flash flooding is possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through the end of the week, with prolonged rainfall possibly extending the flood threat into the weekend.

Second, tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday, from Sabine Pass to Morgan City — an area now under a Tropical Storm Warning.

Third, minor to moderate coastal flooding is anticipated along parts of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines.

The forecast was issued by Forecaster Blake at the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its second wind speed probability bulletin for Potential Tropical Cyclone One at 9 p.m. Coordinated Universal Time on Tuesday, June 16, 2026.

At the time of the advisory, the center of the system was located near latitude 27.3 degrees north and longitude 97.6 degrees west, placing it near the Texas Gulf Coast. Maximum sustained winds were recorded at approximately 25 knots — equivalent to 30 miles per hour or 45 kilometers per hour.

The bulletin outlines the probability of tropical storm-force winds of at least 34 knots (39 mph) reaching several Gulf Coast locations over the next five days. Among the locations with the highest cumulative chances of experiencing those wind speeds are Cameron, Louisiana, with a 21 percent cumulative probability, and Galveston, Texas, also showing a 20 percent cumulative probability.

Other locations listed in the advisory include Lafayette, Louisiana; New Iberia, Louisiana; Fort Polk, Louisiana; Lake Charles, Louisiana; Port Arthur, Texas; Freeport, Texas; High Island, Texas; Matagorda, Texas; and Port O’Connor, Texas. Cumulative wind speed probabilities at those locations ranged from 3 to 13 percent for tropical storm-force winds over the five-day period.

The bulletin did not show any significant probabilities for stronger winds of 50 knots or 64 knots at any of the listed locations.

The advisory was prepared by forecaster Blake at the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated forecast graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, tracking the system’s potential wind impacts across the affected region.

The graphics display the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring within a 120-hour forecast window, giving residents and emergency managers a look at where tropical-force winds could develop as the system evolves.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability graphics were last updated on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, at approximately 8:54 PM GMT.

Residents in potentially affected areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as the system continues to develop.

MIAMI (AP) — A developing storm system along the Gulf Coast may become the first named tropical storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The storm cluster was positioned Tuesday afternoon roughly 55 miles south-southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas, and threatened to unleash heavy rainfall capable of triggering dangerous flooding across southern states, including Texas and Louisiana.

National Hurricane Center director Michael Brennan said forecasters expect the system to gain strength, potentially reaching tropical storm status by early Wednesday. He noted that coastal communities could face tropical storm conditions this week regardless of whether the system earns an official name.

“The main hazard with these types of systems is largely the flooding from the heavy rainfall,” Brennan said. “And we could see potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend.”

Forecasters also warned that tornadoes were possible stretching from the upper Texas coast through southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and into the Florida Panhandle.

As of Tuesday, the storm’s maximum sustained winds were clocking in at around 30 mph — just under the 39 mph threshold required to be officially classified as a tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center put the odds of the system developing into a tropical cyclone within the next two days at 70%.

Houston, which is set to host a World Cup match between Portugal and the Democratic Republic of the Congo on Wednesday, has been under a flood warning since Monday. The match venue has a covered roof, and officials have not announced any plans to relocate or reschedule the game.

Rainfall totals by Thursday could reach 4 to 8 inches across the affected region, with some isolated coastal areas potentially seeing up to a foot of rain.

A tropical storm watch was already in place from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. Dangerous rip currents are expected along Gulf Coast beaches over the next several days due to rough surf.

A new weather system is taking shape in the Gulf of Mexico, with the U.S. National Hurricane Center announcing Tuesday that Potential Tropical Cyclone One has formed roughly 65 miles southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas. The storm is raising concerns about severe flash flooding and possible disruptions to a major energy-producing region along the Gulf Coast.

If the system gains enough strength to become a named storm, it would be called Arthur and would mark the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. As of Tuesday, the storm was producing maximum sustained winds of 30 miles per hour. A tropical storm watch has been put in place for a stretch of the northwestern Gulf Coast running from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the disturbance is expected to move offshore along the Texas coast Tuesday night or early Wednesday, then travel roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast later Wednesday before pushing back inland over far eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Regardless of whether the storm intensifies further, forecasters say it is on track to drop between 4 and 8 inches of rain — with some isolated areas potentially seeing up to 12 inches — through Thursday across the Texas coast and much of Louisiana. The NHC also cautioned that a dangerous storm surge could push water into areas that are normally dry.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott declared a disaster for 101 counties in the state on Monday ahead of the storm’s arrival.

The rain is also expected to affect the FIFA World Cup match between Portugal and DR Congo scheduled to take place in Houston on Wednesday. Beyond the sporting event, energy industry experts are keeping a close eye on potential impacts to oil and gas infrastructure throughout the region. Tony Dupont, COO at Earth Science Associates, offered an early assessment, saying the storm “doesn’t look too strong” at this point.

Andrew Polk, a weather risk manager at data consultancy DTN, noted that major oil production sites in the Gulf are currently sitting outside the projected path of tropical storm-force winds. However, he warned that some disruptions could still occur. “There may still be some disruptions, primarily due to the overall impact of helicopter operations which may disrupt and delay crew changes from occurring due to the winds and thunderstorms associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One,” Polk said in an emailed statement, adding that wave heights are expected to climb to between 7 and 9 feet to the east and south of the storm.

Polk further explained that “the wave impacts primarily disrupt operations in the water with lift boats and/or diving operations,” and said the main concern from the storm will be the total amount of rainfall expected to fall along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.

The stakes are high for the region’s energy infrastructure. The U.S. Gulf of America federal offshore zone produced close to 2 million barrels of crude oil each day in March, making up roughly 14% of all U.S. crude production. Shell, BP, Chevron, and Occidental are among the biggest deepwater operators working in those waters.

The Gulf Coast refining corridor, which stretches from Corpus Christi to the Mississippi River, handles around half of the entire U.S. refining capacity of 18.4 million barrels per day. The country’s largest refinery — the Saudi Aramco-owned Motiva Enterprises plant in Port Arthur, Texas — processes 730,000 barrels per day on its own. Other significant facilities in the region include Marathon Petroleum’s Galveston Bay plant, ExxonMobil’s Beaumont and Baytown refineries, and ExxonMobil’s Baton Rouge, Louisiana, facility.

Major liquefied natural gas companies, including Cheniere and Venture Global, also operate large facilities along the same coastal stretch.

Weather forecasters have issued updated graphics tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone One, including wind speed probability data covering a five-day forecast window.

The latest wind speed probability graphic was updated Tuesday, June 16, 2026, and shows the chances of 34-knot winds affecting various areas within the storm’s projected path over the next 120 hours.

Residents in coastal communities are encouraged to keep a close eye on the latest forecasts as the system continues to develop. Officials will provide additional updates as the storm’s track and intensity become clearer.

A developing tropical weather system is causing dangerous flash flooding across portions of Texas and Louisiana, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of 1:00 PM Central Daylight Time on Tuesday, June 16, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located near coordinates 27.1 degrees north, 97.8 degrees west. The storm was moving to the northeast at approximately 6 miles per hour.

The system had a minimum central pressure of 1006 millibars and maximum sustained winds of roughly 30 miles per hour at the time of the report.

Authorities are warning that the flash flooding occurring in the region poses a significant danger to those in its path. Residents in affected areas of Texas and Louisiana are urged to stay alert and follow guidance from local emergency officials.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, designated as system AL012026 in the Atlantic basin.

The graphics, which were last updated Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at approximately 15:22 GMT, display the probability of 34-knot wind speeds affecting different regions over a five-day forecast window.

Residents along the Atlantic coast are encouraged to keep a close eye on further updates from the National Hurricane Center as forecasters continue to monitor the development and track of this potential tropical system.

The National Hurricane Center has issued wind speed probability graphics for a developing weather system designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

Forecasters released an updated 34-knot wind speed probability graphic on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, at approximately 3:00 p.m. GMT. The graphic provides a 120-hour outlook showing the likelihood of tropical-force winds affecting various areas.

Residents and communities in potentially affected regions are encouraged to keep a close eye on updates from the National Hurricane Center as the system continues to develop.

A local weather statement was issued at 10:10 AM CDT for the Lake Charles, Louisiana region, according to information released through the National Hurricane Center’s official text notification system.

The bulletin was distributed via the National Hurricane Center’s public advisory channel. No additional details beyond the issuance time and source location were included in the available information.

Residents in and around the Lake Charles area are advised to monitor local weather authorities for the latest updates and any instructions related to this statement.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for a weather system currently being tracked as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

The graphics, last updated Tuesday, June 16, 2026, show the probability of 34-knot winds — roughly 39 miles per hour — affecting different areas within a five-day forecast window.

Forecasters are closely watching the system as it has the potential to develop further. Residents in coastal areas are encouraged to stay informed and monitor the latest updates from official weather authorities.

A local weather statement was issued at 10:38 AM CDT for the Houston and Galveston, Texas region, according to information released through the National Hurricane Center’s official alert system.

The statement, identified as a local advisory bulletin, was distributed through the NHC’s text notification service. No further details regarding the specific content or nature of the weather concern were available in the released text.

Residents in the Houston and Galveston, Texas area are encouraged to monitor official weather channels for the latest updates and guidance.

A developing tropical weather system is posing a serious flooding threat as it slowly pushes inland, forecasters warned Tuesday morning.

According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 10:00 AM CDT on Tuesday, June 16, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was positioned near coordinates 27.0 degrees north latitude and 98.0 degrees west longitude. The storm was tracking to the northeast at approximately 6 miles per hour.

The system had a minimum central pressure of 1007 millibars and maximum sustained winds of around 30 miles per hour at the time of the advisory.

Despite its relatively modest wind speeds, forecasters are emphasizing that the primary danger from this system is not wind — it is water. Very heavy rainfall and dangerous flash flooding are expected as the storm moves through the region.

Residents in the storm’s path are urged to monitor local emergency management guidance and avoid low-lying areas that may be susceptible to rapid flooding.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its first forecast advisory Tuesday afternoon for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, a developing weather system that could pose a threat to portions of the Gulf Coast.

As of 3:00 p.m. UTC on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, the center of the disturbance was located near 27.0 degrees north latitude and 98.0 degrees west longitude, an area near the Texas-Mexico border region. The position is estimated to be accurate within 60 nautical miles.

The system is currently drifting toward the northeast at about 5 knots, or roughly 6 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds are currently at 25 knots, with gusts reaching up to 35 knots. The minimum central pressure is estimated at 1007 millibars.

According to the forecast, the system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by the morning of June 17, with maximum sustained winds increasing to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots. The storm is forecast to continue tracking northeast toward the Louisiana and Texas coast.

By the afternoon of June 18, the system is expected to move inland, with winds weakening to 25 knots. Forecasters predict the storm will fully dissipate by June 19, 2026.

The National Hurricane Center has requested ship reports from vessels within 300 miles of the storm’s current position. The next full advisory was scheduled for 9:00 p.m. UTC Tuesday, with an intermediate advisory expected at 6:00 p.m. UTC. Forecaster Blake issued the advisory.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its first advisory Tuesday morning on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, a weather disturbance that has been tracked for several days as it traveled across the southern Gulf of America and into northeastern Mexico before pushing into southern Texas.

The system, previously identified as AL90, is generating significant rainfall but has not yet developed a well-defined center of circulation. Forecasters say most computer models indicate the system will move back offshore overnight Tuesday, with winds expected to reach tropical storm strength by Wednesday. As a result, Tropical Storm Watches have been put in place for parts of the Upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana shoreline — specifically from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Regardless of whether the disturbance officially becomes a tropical cyclone, forecasters are warning that heavy rain and life-threatening flash flooding remain the most serious dangers. The initial wind intensity has been set at 25 knots, or about 30 miles per hour, based on surface and radar observations.

The storm is currently drifting slowly to the northeast. Forecasters expect it to pick up speed as it interacts with a broad weather trough sitting over the eastern United States. Models suggest the system will hug the Texas coastline Wednesday before moving back onshore late Wednesday or early Thursday. Forecasters project the system will dissipate by early Friday.

Upper-level atmospheric conditions are not particularly favorable for significant strengthening, with notable wind shear and the system’s close proximity to land working against it. However, a jet stream to the north and warm Gulf waters are expected to support some intensification through Wednesday. Due to the shear, the storm is unlikely to take on a classic tropical appearance on satellite imagery — instead, rainfall and winds will be concentrated heavily on the eastern side of the system.

Key hazards forecasters are highlighting include:

Flooding: Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is expected along the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through Thursday. If rainfall is prolonged, flood threats could stretch into the weekend. Small stream and minor river flooding is anticipated along the Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana, with isolated pockets of significant river flooding possible in those areas.

Tropical Storm Threat: The system is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.

Coastal Flooding: Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines.

This advisory was issued by Forecaster Blake at the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its first wind speed probability advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone One at 3:00 p.m. Coordinated Universal Time on Tuesday, June 16, 2026.

At the time of the advisory, the center of the system was positioned near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 98.0 West. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at approximately 25 knots — equivalent to 30 miles per hour or 45 kilometers per hour.

The advisory, prepared by Forecaster Blake, outlines the probability of tropical-storm-force winds of at least 34 knots (39 mph), 50-knot winds (58 mph), and hurricane-force winds of 64 knots (74 mph) reaching various locations along the Gulf Coast over the next five days.

Among the locations with notable cumulative probabilities of experiencing at least tropical-storm-force winds are Cameron, Louisiana, with a 25 percent cumulative chance; Galveston, Texas, at 25 percent; and a Gulf forecast grid point near 28.0 North, 95.0 West, carrying a 37 percent cumulative probability — the highest listed in the advisory.

Other areas listed in the probability table include Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Alexandria, New Iberia, and Lake Charles in Louisiana, as well as Port Arthur, Freeport, High Island, Matagorda, Port O’Connor, and Rockport in Texas.

Residents and interests along the Gulf Coast are encouraged to monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center as the system continues to develop.