The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its seventh wind speed probability update for Tropical Storm Arthur at 9 p.m. UTC on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.
At the time of the advisory, the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was positioned near latitude 28.9 North and longitude 96.1 West, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 40 knots — equivalent to 45 mph or 75 km/h.
Forecasters calculated the probability of locations experiencing sustained tropical-storm-force winds of at least 39 mph over the next five days. The data shows the highest cumulative probabilities concentrated along the upper Texas coast.
Freeport, Texas faces a 90 percent cumulative chance of encountering tropical-storm-force winds during the forecast period, while Galveston, Texas carries an 82 percent cumulative probability. High Island, Texas sits at 66 percent, and Matagorda, Texas has a 38 percent cumulative chance.
Further inland and along the Louisiana border, Port Arthur, Texas has a 32 percent cumulative probability of tropical-storm-force winds. Kountze, Texas stands at 22 percent, while Port O’Connor, Texas is at 11 percent.
Communities in southwest Louisiana, including Lake Charles and Cameron, each carry an 8 percent cumulative probability of tropical-storm-force winds. Fort Polk, Louisiana sits at 3 percent. Houston, Texas and Jasper, Texas each show a 7 to 8 percent cumulative probability.
No locations in the forecast area currently show significant probabilities of winds reaching 58 mph or higher during the five-day outlook period.
The advisory was prepared by Forecaster Reinhart at the National Hurricane Center.
