The National Hurricane Center is tracking a disorganized weather disturbance that is beginning to push into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and forecasters say it could develop into a tropical storm as early as Wednesday.
As of 10:00 PM CDT Tuesday, June 16, 2026, the system — designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One — had sustained winds of around 25 knots, or about 30 miles per hour. Forecasters noted that strong westerly wind shear is disrupting the storm’s structure, pushing most of the heavy rainfall away from the center of circulation. Because of this, the system has not yet qualified as a full tropical cyclone.
Despite its relatively weak winds, the storm is expected to move northeastward, running just off the Texas coastline before likely coming back onshore late Wednesday or Wednesday night. The National Hurricane Center says the system could gain some strength while it is briefly over the warm Gulf waters, but ongoing wind shear is expected to limit how powerful it becomes before landfall.
The official forecast calls for the system to reach tropical storm strength on Wednesday, with maximum winds around 35 to 40 knots before weakening rapidly once inland. Forecasters expect the system to dissipate entirely by Friday.
Regardless of whether it officially becomes a named tropical storm, forecasters are emphasizing that heavy rainfall and flash flooding represent the most dangerous threats from this system.
The National Hurricane Center issued the following key warnings:
Life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding is likely through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, with the threat also extending near the Upper Texas coast. Flash flooding is additionally possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through the end of the week, and prolonged rainfall could push the flood threat into the weekend.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass to Morgan City, where tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Wednesday.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding is also anticipated along parts of the Upper Texas and Louisiana shorelines.
The forecast discussion was issued by forecasters Pasch and Adams at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
