A low-pressure system churning in the Gulf of Mexico is edging closer to tropical storm status, according to the latest forecast discussion issued Tuesday afternoon by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
As of 4:00 PM CDT Tuesday, the system — currently classified as Potential Tropical Cyclone One — is producing scattered, disorganized thunderstorm activity mostly over water, concentrated in its eastern half. Forecasters noted that the storm’s low-level center has become more clearly defined throughout the day, supported by satellite imagery, surface observations, and dropping air pressure readings. Despite the improvement, the system still falls just short of the criteria needed to be upgraded to a tropical depression, lacking a well-defined center and consistent storm activity. Its current wind intensity is estimated at 25 knots, or about 30 miles per hour.
The system has been drifting slowly to the northeast. Forecasters expect it to move offshore of south Texas Tuesday night before picking up speed along the coast on Wednesday. That acceleration is being driven by a mid-latitude weather trough positioned over the eastern United States. Forecast models show the system tracking very close to the Texas coastline on Wednesday before moving back onshore late Wednesday or Wednesday night. The storm’s circulation is then expected to break down quickly over central Louisiana on Thursday.
There is potential for some strengthening on Wednesday as the system spends time over the warm waters of the Gulf and interacts with upper-level wind patterns. Most forecast models indicate the system could reach tropical storm strength by Wednesday. The official forecast largely mirrors the previous update.
Regardless of whether the system achieves tropical cyclone status, forecasters are warning that dangerous rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the top concerns.
The National Hurricane Center outlined three key hazards associated with the storm:
First, potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding is considered likely through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, with flash flooding also possible near the Upper Texas coast. Additional flash flooding is possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through the end of the week, with prolonged rainfall possibly extending the flood threat into the weekend.
Second, tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday, from Sabine Pass to Morgan City — an area now under a Tropical Storm Warning.
Third, minor to moderate coastal flooding is anticipated along parts of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines.
The forecast was issued by Forecaster Blake at the National Hurricane Center.
