The National Hurricane Center issued a special advisory Wednesday morning, announcing the extension of a Tropical Storm Warning along the Upper Texas coast southward to Sargent, Texas. The advisory, issued at 11:30 a.m. CDT on June 17, 2026, noted that recent surface observations and readings from NOAA buoy 42035 show maximum sustained winds near 40 knots, with the storm’s minimum pressure dropping to 999 millibars.
The system, now officially designated as Tropical Storm Arthur, was identified after a combination of data sources confirmed it had reached tropical storm strength. A 12:00 UTC Dvorak classification from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch showed enough organized convective activity to classify it as a sheared tropical cyclone. Buoy readings and a ship report confirmed tropical-storm-force winds within the storm’s convective area, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters flying through the system recorded peak flight-level winds up to 52 knots at 850 millibars — further confirming tropical storm intensity. Arthur was officially designated with an initial intensity of 35 knots.
Arthur is accelerating toward the northeast at roughly 8 knots, carried along by strengthening southwesterly flow tied to a low- to mid-level trough. Forecasters expect the storm’s center to track along or over the Texas coast before pushing inland across southeastern Texas and into southwestern Louisiana by Wednesday night. The National Hurricane Center’s updated track forecast closely mirrors its previous projection.
Due to persistent westerly wind shear and Arthur’s nearness to land, forecasters say significant strengthening is unlikely. Tropical-storm-force winds are currently limited to the storm’s eastern half and are primarily affecting offshore waters. Arthur is expected to hold its current intensity while over water, then begin weakening once it moves inland tonight. Global weather models suggest the storm will eventually break apart into a trough, and forecasters note that Arthur should dissipate before the 24-hour forecast point, which was included mainly for continuity.
Forecasters are also watching for the possibility of new low pressure development over the western Atlantic later this week or over the weekend, as leftover energy from Arthur moves off the southeastern U.S. coast. The nature of that potential system remains uncertain, and the National Hurricane Center says it will continue tracking model trends to assess any risk of tropical cyclone formation.
The primary danger from Arthur is heavy rainfall and the potential for life-threatening flash flooding. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the Upper Texas coast to High Island based on the latest observations.
Key threats identified by the National Hurricane Center include:
Flash and urban flooding: Potentially life-threatening flooding is expected through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Flooding is also possible near the Upper Texas coast, and ongoing heavy rain could extend the threat into the weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds: Wind impacts are expected along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coasts Wednesday, from High Island to Morgan City, where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect.
Coastal flooding: Minor to moderate coastal flooding is anticipated along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana shorelines throughout the day.
The forecast calls for Arthur to weaken to a remnant low by 24 hours and fully dissipate within 36 hours. The advisory was prepared by Forecaster Reinhart.
