A disorganized low pressure system hovering near the middle Texas coastline is showing little sign of developing into a tropical cyclone, according to a 4:00 AM CDT Wednesday forecast discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center.
Offshore buoy readings confirm the system’s maximum sustained winds are holding at 25 knots. While a band of deep thunderstorm activity has developed over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico since the previous advisory, powerful westerly wind shear — blowing at 25 to 30 knots — has displaced that convection more than 120 nautical miles to the east and southeast of the low’s center. Because of this separation, forecasters at the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch rated the system as “Too Weak To Classify,” meaning it lacks the organized storm structure required to be officially named a tropical cyclone.
The system is currently drifting to the northeast at about 5 knots. As low- to mid-level winds strengthen from the southwest and a weather trough approaches from the northwest, the system is expected to pick up speed throughout Wednesday. The low’s center is forecast to straddle the Texas coastline for much of the day before pushing inland over eastern Texas or Louisiana by Wednesday night.
Forecasters say the chances of this system achieving tropical cyclone status appear to be fading. With the center not expected to spend enough time over open Gulf waters and wind shear remaining strong through the next 12 hours, organization is unlikely before the system moves ashore. Even so, winds could still strengthen somewhat in areas well east of the center during the day, and the official forecast still shows a peak of 35 knots at the 12-hour mark. All major global weather models then show the system breaking apart into a trough over Louisiana by Wednesday night, with the official forecast classifying it as a remnant low at 24 hours — though complete dissipation before that point is also possible.
Looking further ahead, forecasters are watching the leftover low-level energy as it tracks eastward across the southeastern United States on Thursday and Friday. The European, Canadian, and United Kingdom weather models each suggest a new low pressure system could redevelop — particularly if the remnant circulation moves back offshore over the western Atlantic. Forecasters say they will continue monitoring model trends for any potential tropical development over the western Atlantic later this week or into the weekend.
Regardless of whether the system ever achieves tropical cyclone status, the National Hurricane Center is emphasizing that heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the primary dangers.
Key Hazards:
Life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding are expected through Thursday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle, with possible flooding also near the upper Texas coast. Ongoing heavy rain could keep the flood threat going into the weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast between Sabine Pass and Morgan City, where a Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding is also anticipated along portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana shorelines on Wednesday.
This forecast discussion was prepared by Forecaster Berg at the National Hurricane Center.
