Major European capitals now sit within striking distance of Iranian missiles, security experts warn, following Tehran’s unsuccessful attack on a British-American military installation in the Indian Ocean.
The failed missile strike against the Diego Garcia base has demonstrated Iran’s ability to launch weapons across a 4,000-kilometer range, placing cities like Paris, Berlin, Rome, and London within potential reach of Iranian forces.
Benjamin Touati, who leads ELNET-Israel, described the attempted attack as part of a larger strategic transformation in the region. “The Middle East stands at a decisive turning point, even as tensions continue to escalate. The outcome of the conflict is increasingly clear; what remains uncertain is its cost, its duration, and the shape of the new regional order that will emerge,” Touati explained to reporters.
According to Touati, current tensions stem from developments that began well before recent events. “This transformation did not begin recently. The region has been evolving since October 7, 2023, and even earlier with the Abraham Accords and the growing Iranian threat—not only to Israel, but to Gulf states as well,” he noted.
The distance calculations are sobering for European leaders. Diego Garcia sits roughly 3,800 kilometers from Iran’s southeastern border, while Paris lies approximately 4,200 kilometers from Tehran and less than 3,500 kilometers from northwestern Iran. “The strike toward Diego Garcia carries implications far beyond its immediate tactical significance,” Touati observed, adding that the message to Europe is clear: “Europe is within range.”
However, counterterrorism specialist Daniele Garofalo cautioned against assuming immediate operational threats based solely on missile range demonstrations. “On the technical level, three layers must be separated: theoretical range, actual operational capability, and political decision to employ,” Garofalo told reporters.
Despite the symbolic importance of Iran’s long-distance missile launch, Garofalo emphasized that current intelligence assessments remain measured. “There is no evidence that Iran currently possesses a confirmed capability to reliably strike European targets,” he stated.
Even with missiles capable of reaching 4,000 kilometers, Garofalo explained that multiple factors must align before a genuine threat emerges. “If one assumes a vector in the 4,000 km class that is truly operational, some portions of Europe … fall within a theoretical reachability perimeter. However, theoretical reachability does not equal a credible threat of an imminent strategic strike,” he pointed out.
A successful long-range attack would require “vector reliability, penetration capability, targeting, a resilient C2 [command and control] chain, launch preparation, survivability management of launchers, and political willingness to accept a NATO response,” according to Garofalo’s analysis.
These missile range concerns coincide with growing disagreements between Washington and European allies regarding security measures for the Strait of Hormuz. The United States has advocated for stronger protective actions for maritime shipping lanes, while multiple European nations have shown reluctance to expand their military commitments in the region.
The strategic waterway serves as one of the planet’s most vital energy transit points, with approximately one-fifth of global oil shipments and substantial liquefied natural gas volumes passing through daily. Any interruption to commercial traffic through this corridor would immediately impact worldwide energy costs and European economies that rely heavily on energy imports.
European leadership has therefore prioritized economic stability over military escalation. Policy discussions across several capitals have focused on strengthening maritime monitoring, expanding intelligence cooperation, and providing protective escorts for commercial shipping. Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands have responded favorably to calls for protective action in the strait, though specific implementation details—including potential military measures—remain undisclosed.
This measured response reflects both political sensitivities and desires to prevent geographic expansion of the conflict. The gap between Washington’s push for stronger deterrence and Europe’s focus on risk management has contributed to perceptions of increasing transatlantic tensions over Hormuz security strategies.
Garofalo characterized the European stance as careful rather than uninvolved. “Public signals point in the opposite direction of a rapid Europeanization of the Hormuz theater,” he observed.
European governments will likely pursue gradual measures rather than dramatic changes, Garofalo predicted. “In practice, more presence and more prudence, not necessarily more combat,” he said. His assessment suggests European nations may enhance surveillance, intelligence sharing, and maritime protection without committing to major military deployments.
Touati, however, argued that evolving circumstances may demand more decisive action. “This is no longer a regional issue; it is a strategic challenge with global implications,” he stated.
The missile demonstration and maritime tensions reflect broader geopolitical changes, according to Touati. “The Iranian regime continues to escalate on multiple fronts—threatening regional stability, targeting moderate Sunni states in the Gulf, disrupting global economic flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and now extending its reach toward Europe itself,” he warned.
These differing assessments highlight broader uncertainty about appropriate European responses. Some analysts stress risk containment, while others warn that hesitation could invite further escalation.
Touati suggested that recent developments should prompt urgent reconsideration of European defense strategies. “Is this not the moment to move from concept to reality?” he questioned. The Diego Garcia attack is widely viewed as both a warning and provocation designed to discourage European intervention, he added.
Beyond direct missile threats, analysts increasingly emphasize hybrid warfare risks. Garofalo noted that indirect attacks may pose more realistic dangers for Europe. “If Iran chose indirect retaliation on European soil, the most likely form would not be a direct missile. It would be a hybrid package,” he warned.
Potential hybrid threats include “cyber operations against energy, healthcare, shipping, logistics, telecoms, finance, and public systems,” along with “limited sabotage or arson,” and “attacks on Israeli, Jewish, US, or Iranian dissident targets,” according to Garofalo’s analysis.
He also highlighted concerning operational patterns already documented. “The Iranian threat in Europe does not necessarily pass through ‘classic cells’—it often passes through criminal proxies, facilitators, and opportunistic tasking.”
Security monitoring should focus on “interfaces between hostile intelligence, organized crime, infiltrated diaspora, pre-operational surveillance, and cyber access,” Garofalo advised. “If I must put it bluntly—the real warning is not the lone fanatic. It is the convergence between gangs, Iranian intelligence, cyber access, and target selection,” he explained.
Questions about European preparedness also factor into current discussions. Using Italy as an example, Garofalo pointed to existing defense capabilities while identifying civilian readiness gaps.
“Italy is not exposed. On the military side, Italy is part of NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defense architecture and ballistic missile defense.” However, he noted that “public doctrine, widespread civil preparedness, alert culture, urban sheltering, population-institution exercises, and crisis communication are not at the level of a country truly preparing for a regular long-range threat.”
Touati framed the challenge in broader strategic terms. “Ultimately, Europe faces a deeper structural challenge. For decades, it has lived without war on its soil. This has shaped both its strategic culture and its reflexes,” he said.
“The question is no longer theoretical: Will Europe recognize this strategic momentum and prepare for what may be an unavoidable reality? Is Europe ready?” Touati asked.
The Diego Garcia incident, maritime tensions, and transatlantic policy differences underscore how the conflict’s effects are becoming increasingly worldwide. While no immediate threat to Europe has materialized, the combination of long-range missile capabilities, hybrid warfare scenarios, and strategic disagreements indicates that the continent now has closer connections to a conflict previously considered distant.
