WASHINGTON, May 12 – Nebraska voters will choose their party nominees Tuesday for a congressional seat that could play a crucial role in determining control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
The race for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers the Omaha metropolitan area, has drawn significant attention as Democrats see it as one of their strongest chances to flip a Republican-held seat outside of redrawn districts.
While both Nebraska and West Virginia are conducting primary elections Tuesday, the Democratic contest in Nebraska’s 2nd district stands out as the evening’s most closely watched race.
Two leading contenders have emerged in the competitive Democratic primary: Denise Powell, who helped establish the political action committee Women Who Run Nebraska, and state Senator John Cavanaugh.
Powell is positioning herself as a centrist candidate capable of preserving Nebraska’s “blue dot” status. Despite President Donald Trump carrying the state overall by more than 20 percentage points in 2024 and winning two of three congressional districts by large margins, this particular district remains competitive.
Cavanaugh, who represents the progressive wing of the party, has criticized Powell by labeling her “Dark Money Denise.” Should Cavanaugh prevail, Nebraska’s Republican governor would name his successor in the state legislature, potentially strengthening the GOP majority and possibly enabling passage of more restrictive abortion legislation, according to some Democratic concerns.
Supporters of Cavanaugh have dismissed this argument as “MAGA Republican” misinformation, asserting that Democrats are well-positioned to gain ground in upcoming state legislative contests.
On the Republican side, Omaha city councilman Brinker Harding faces no opposition for his party’s nomination. Campaign finance records show Harding has collected $1.3 million in contributions and maintains more available funds than both Democratic candidates combined.
The district’s competitive nature was demonstrated in 2024 when Democrat Kamala Harris captured it at the presidential level by fewer than 5 percentage points. This seat represents one of only three districts Harris won that currently have Republican representation. With no incumbent seeking reelection following Bacon’s departure, Democrats view it as a prime pickup opportunity.
The stakes extend beyond this single race, as Republicans currently maintain a slim 217-212 advantage in the House of Representatives, where the chamber’s only independent member votes with the Republican caucus. Five seats remain vacant due to deaths and resignations.
To seize House control for Trump’s final two years in office, Democrats must gain a net total of three seats in November’s midterm elections. Historically, the president’s party tends to lose congressional seats during midterms, though Trump has encouraged Republican-controlled states to redraw their electoral maps to maintain congressional control.
This presidential directive has sparked a nationwide redistricting battle between the parties, with both sides working to create electoral advantages in states including Texas, California, Florida, Louisiana and Tennessee.
Southern states under Republican leadership have also revised their maps following a recent Supreme Court decision that weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. This ruling puts previously protected majority-minority districts throughout the South at risk.
Tuesday’s primary also features an unusual Senate race dynamic. Republican Senator Pete Ricketts is anticipated to secure his party’s nomination easily. His main November challenger, Dan Osborn, is campaigning as an independent candidate. Osborn’s previous Senate bid against Republican Senator Deb Fischer in 2024 resulted in a loss of less than 7 percentage points, a performance that significantly exceeded Harris’s statewide showing.
A Democratic primary will also occur, despite the state party’s decision not to officially support a candidate, believing Osborn has the strongest chance of defeating Ricketts.
William Forbes, who describes himself as an anti-abortion Trump supporter, entered the Democratic primary race in March. Democratic officials have characterized Forbes as “running to trick voters.”
Cindy Burbank also launched her campaign in March. Her campaign website describes Forbes as a “fake” Democrat whose candidacy would divide Democratic votes to benefit Ricketts’ reelection bid. While encouraging primary voters to support her, Burbank also states that Osborn “deserves a fair shot against Ricketts,” indicating she might withdraw if she wins the Democratic nomination to ensure a direct contest between Osborn and Ricketts.
