Investment banking giant Morgan Stanley announced Monday it will stick with its earlier oil price predictions, anticipating Brent crude to hit $110 per barrel during the second quarter of 2026 and $100 per barrel in the third quarter, before declining to $80 per barrel in 2027.
The financial institution warned that oil distribution networks will need several months to return to normal operations, even if access through the Strait of Hormuz can be restored.
According to Morgan Stanley’s primary projection, shipments through the strategic waterway will remain limited throughout April, regain approximately 70% of previous volume levels from May through July, and achieve normal operations by October.
Crude oil values surged back beyond $100 per barrel Monday as the U.S. Navy prepared to intercept vessels traveling to and from Iran through the Strait of Hormuz, which could limit Iranian petroleum exports following unsuccessful negotiations between Washington and Tehran to resolve ongoing conflicts.
By 0810 GMT, Brent crude futures reached $102.23 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading at $103.88.
At the same time, oil-producing nations in the Middle East, including Kuwait and Iraq, have significantly increased their official pricing for Asian markets in May.
Saudi Arabia established its Arab Light crude pricing for Asia at an unprecedented premium of $19.50 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai benchmark.
Market experts anticipate that disruptions to worldwide oil production will create a supply shortage this year, contrasting with earlier projections that predicted abundant oversupply before the current crisis began.
