Category: News

Two years after catastrophic flooding devastated southern Brazil, communities still picking up the pieces are now facing a new threat — forecasters warn that a strong El Niño could unleash extreme rainfall on the region before the year is out.

In Porto Alegre, the capital of Rio Grande do Sul state, the scars of the disaster remain visible. Piles of rubble and the ruins of demolished homes stand as grim reminders of the worst flooding ever recorded in Brazil’s history, a disaster that claimed at least 181 lives in May 2024.

“People are afraid,” said Marilian Fontoura, speaking from her home in Porto Alegre’s Sarandi neighborhood, where water stains stretch all the way to her ceiling — a stark mark of how high the floodwaters rose. “If the rain comes again, another downpour, another flood, then what? You’ll lose everything all over again.”

Sarandi has become a symbol of the city’s ongoing vulnerability, even as money has been poured into new infrastructure, early warning systems, and monitoring improvements.

Mayor Sebastiao Melo has said the city is now safer than it was in 2024 and is working “intensely” to repair pumping stations, rebuild dikes, and upgrade floodgates. This week, Porto Alegre’s water and sewage utility awarded a contract to a consortium to carry out state-funded flood protection work valued at approximately 24.2 million reais — roughly $4.7 million.

“Specifically for El Niño, we are expediting some immediate projects that would have been built later on,” Mayor Melo said.

But resident Fontoura says she has seen too many projects stall. A nearby levee construction effort has ground to a halt due to ongoing disputes over property expropriation between residents and city officials.

At the state level, authorities are also stepping up preparations, committing 38 million reais to build a logistics hub for disaster response operations and another 33 million reais toward an El Niño readiness program aimed at protecting vulnerable communities across the region.

Time may be running short. Global weather forecasters say there is a growing likelihood that a powerful El Niño — the periodic warming of eastern Pacific waters that disrupts precipitation patterns worldwide — will take shape during the second half of this year.

“What has drawn a great deal of attention is the projected intensity,” said meteorologist Estael Sias, noting that forecast models indicate this year’s El Niño event could rank among the strongest ever recorded since satellite weather monitoring began.

Close to a year after catastrophic flooding tore through the Texas Hill Country, state lawmakers have officially adopted a report laying out recommendations aimed at strengthening how the state predicts and responds to natural disasters.

Among the most significant findings in the report is that Camp Mystic, which became a focal point of the flooding disaster, had no emergency plan in place at the time of the deadly event.

State legislators approved the report’s recommendations as part of a broader effort to address the gaps in preparedness and response that were exposed by the disaster.

The flooding, which caused widespread devastation across the region, prompted scrutiny of how facilities and emergency management officials handle extreme weather events and whether adequate systems exist to protect lives when disaster strikes.

What’s left of Tropical Storm Arthur continued causing problems Thursday, drenching parts of the southeastern United States with heavy rainfall and setting off flash flood and tornado warnings along the Gulf Coast.

At the same time, residents across parts of Illinois, Indiana, and northern Kentucky were dealing with the aftermath of a fierce storm system that swept through the region Wednesday, bringing what may have been tornadoes, destroying homes, and knocking down trees and power lines.

Arthur, which holds the distinction of being the Atlantic basin’s first tropical storm of the season, was knocked down to a low pressure system near the upper Texas coast Wednesday night. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said it will continue to lose strength as it pushes inland through Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle — though it will still drop significant amounts of rain along the way.

The National Weather Service reported that southern Louisiana and Mississippi were receiving rainfall at a rate of 3 inches — about 8 centimeters — per hour in certain locations Thursday morning. Flooded streets were visible in television coverage and social media posts from the area. Multiple tornado warnings were issued Thursday morning across southern Louisiana and Mississippi, and tens of thousands of homes and businesses lost power.

The weather service warned that Arthur’s remnants could dump 4 to 8 inches — or 10 to 20 centimeters — of rain, and possibly more, across Gulf states through Thursday and Friday. Texas had already seen flash flooding Wednesday, on top of heavy rain that had already hit the region earlier in the week.

National Hurricane Center director Michael Brennan described the primary danger: “The main threat from Arthur is going to be a prolonged, multiday, heavy rainfall event that could produce dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.”

In New Orleans, Mayor Helena Moreno said ahead of the storm’s arrival that police were getting boats ready and placing barricades in areas known to flood. Sandbag collection sites also appeared throughout Louisiana for residents to prepare.

One resident, Luke Barwick, explained why he stopped by a sandbag station in Covington, Louisiana, on Wednesday: “We both decided we got so much rain yesterday at our house that it was probably a good idea just to pick up a few bags.”

Back in the Midwest, there were many reports of tornado and wind damage, though no deaths or serious injuries were immediately confirmed. As of Thursday morning, more than 130,000 homes and businesses in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio were without electricity, according to poweroutage.us.

A tornado touched down near Effingham, Illinois — roughly 90 miles, or 145 kilometers, southeast of Springfield — on Wednesday evening. A number of people were treated for minor injuries, officials confirmed.

Effingham Fire Chief Brant Yochum released a statement describing the scope of the destruction: “A tornado caused significant damage in areas north of the City of Effingham, impacting homes, roadways, utilities, and other property throughout portions of Effingham County.”

Yochum added that firefighters were kept busy responding to damaged and collapsed structures, vehicle accidents, downed power lines, gas leaks, and roads blocked by debris.

An automobile museum and auto parts complex in Effingham announced on Facebook that it suffered what it called “catastrophic” damage, though fortunately no injuries were reported.

The National Weather Service also noted that a tractor-trailer overturned on Interstate 57 north of Effingham, sending the driver to the hospital with injuries.

In Florence, Kentucky, near the Cincinnati area, local news footage and photos showed roofs and siding torn from buildings, along with downed trees and power lines, following reports of strong winds and a possible tornado.

Possible tornadoes were also reported Wednesday in southwestern Wisconsin and in Alabama. The weather service said it received a large number of wind damage reports spanning a broad area stretching from Iowa and Missouri all the way to Ohio and West Virginia.

The storm system was forecast to continue moving through the central Appalachians and into New England on Thursday, the weather service said.

Two major United Nations food agencies are urgently requesting $202 million to help shield 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk nations from the growing threat of an El Niño weather event. The appeal was made Thursday by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme.

The two agencies warn that strong El Niño conditions expected during the second half of 2026 could significantly increase the chances of drought, flooding, and powerful storms across regions of Africa, Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

The 22 countries identified as most vulnerable include Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, and Zimbabwe on the African continent. In the Asia-Pacific region, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Philippines, and East Timor are listed among those at greatest risk. Rounding out the list are Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Venezuela in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The agencies noted that securing the requested funding would allow them to expand their reach beyond the 1.2 million people already being targeted for assistance. Planned aid measures include cash transfers, seeds designed to withstand climate stress, protection for livestock, and flood control efforts.

El Niño is a naturally occurring weather phenomenon caused by a warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, triggered by a weakening of trade winds. It typically occurs every two to seven years and generally lasts between nine and twelve months.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially declared El Niño’s arrival last week, adding that conditions are likely to grow stronger. The agency placed the probability of a very strong or so-called ‘super El Niño’ developing heading into 2027 at 63%.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with the latest information on potential wind impacts.

The graphics display the probability of 34-knot wind speeds affecting different regions over a 120-hour period. According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probabilities were last updated on Thursday, June 18, 2026, at 3:20 a.m. GMT.

Residents are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as conditions continue to be assessed.

Hong Kong’s weather observatory issued its most severe rain warning — known as the black rain signal — on Thursday at 12:55 p.m. local time, ordering schools to close and pushing some businesses to suspend operations as officials warned residents to find shelter and prepare for serious flooding.

The observatory reported on its website that heavy rainfall exceeding 70 millimeters per hour was expected to persist. This marks the second time this year the black rain signal has been activated, with the first occurrence happening just over a week earlier on June 8.

The major financial city, along with much of southern China, has endured several consecutive days of soaking rain driven by an active southwest monsoon and a persistent low-pressure trough in the region.

Strong wind gusts have also been battering the city, with speeds of approximately 80 kilometers — about 50 miles — per hour recorded in Hong Kong’s southwestern district of Tai O, according to the observatory.

The severe weather arrives at an especially inconvenient time, falling just before the Dragon Boat Festival on Friday, which kicks off a three-day weekend during which large numbers of residents are expected to be traveling.

Just across the border in Shenzhen, mainland China, local authorities issued a red rain signal and called on residents to avoid low-lying areas, waterlogged zones, and what officials described as “other dangerous areas.” Officials there also warned of a heightened risk of mountain floods, landslides, and other related disasters.

The National Hurricane Center has released updated wind speed probability graphics for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with the latest outlook on potential wind impacts.

The imagery depicts the probability of 34-knot wind speeds affecting different regions as the storm system continues to be monitored. These graphics are a standard tool used by meteorologists to communicate the range of possible storm impacts.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability graphics were last updated on Thursday, June 18, 2026, at 3:20 a.m. GMT. Residents in potentially affected areas are encouraged to monitor official forecasts for the latest information as conditions may change.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with the latest outlook on the storm system.

The graphics display the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring across the storm’s projected path over a 120-hour period. These probability maps are a standard tool used by meteorologists to communicate the likelihood of hazardous winds reaching specific areas.

The wind speed probability information was last updated Thursday, June 18, 2026, at 2:51 a.m. GMT, according to the National Hurricane Center.

What was once Tropical Storm Arthur has weakened significantly, now classified as a low pressure area hugging the upper Texas coast.

According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 10:00 PM CDT on Wednesday, June 17, the center of the system was positioned near coordinates 29.7 degrees north, 94.5 degrees west, moving to the northeast at approximately 9 miles per hour.

The storm’s minimum central pressure was recorded at 1000 millibars, with maximum sustained winds of around 35 miles per hour — down from its peak tropical storm intensity.

Even though Arthur has lost its tropical storm classification, forecasters are warning that life-threatening flooding remains a serious concern for portions of the southeastern United States. Residents in affected areas are urged to remain cautious and stay informed through local emergency management officials.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its final forecast advisory for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur at 3:00 a.m. UTC on Thursday, June 18, 2026, signaling the end of active storm tracking for this system.

At the time of the final advisory, the storm’s center was pinpointed near 29.7 degrees North latitude and 94.5 degrees West longitude, with that position considered accurate within 30 nautical miles. The system was moving toward the northeast at approximately 8 knots, or roughly 9 miles per hour.

Arthur’s estimated minimum central pressure stood at 1,000 millibars, with maximum sustained winds of 30 knots and gusts reaching up to 40 knots at the time of the report.

Forecasters indicated the storm was expected to fully dissipate by 12:00 p.m. UTC on Thursday. However, the National Hurricane Center noted that the remnants of Arthur could re-emerge over the Atlantic Ocean by Friday. If that occurs, additional information will be available through High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

The advisory was the eighth and final one issued for this storm, designated AL012026. Forecaster Beven authored the final report. Ships within 300 nautical miles of the storm’s last known position were asked to submit reports every three hours.

The National Hurricane Center announced Wednesday night that Arthur has officially been downgraded from a tropical cyclone to a post-tropical low, after the storm’s structure broke down along the Upper Texas coastline.

According to forecasters, surface observations showed that Arthur’s center briefly re-formed near Galveston between approximately 9 and 10 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday following an offshore burst of thunderstorm activity. However, organized storm activity near the center soon disappeared, and the circulation stretched out along the Upper Texas coast — prompting the downgrade. The system is now carrying maximum sustained winds of 30 knots.

The storm’s path remains somewhat uncertain due to the center reformation, but forecasters estimate it is beginning to pick up speed, moving toward the northeast at around 8 knots. The surface center is expected to fall apart later Wednesday night over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana. After that, the remnants of Arthur are forecast to track east-northeastward across the southeastern United States before emerging into the Atlantic Ocean on Friday, continuing out to sea from there.

Although the surface center is expected to dissipate, global weather models indicate it could potentially re-form near the Atlantic coast on Friday, with some strengthening possible as it moves offshore. Forecasters say it remains unclear whether any redevelopment would result from tropical or non-tropical weather processes. As a precaution, marine gale warnings have been issued for portions of the western Atlantic.

Despite losing its tropical cyclone designation, Arthur continues to pose significant dangers. Forecasters warn that heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will remain a major concern across the southeastern United States for the next several days. An elevated tornado risk is also in place for parts of the Southeast through Thursday.

Key hazards outlined by forecasters include: potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle; the possibility of scattered minor river flooding, with isolated moderate to major river flooding; wind gusts reaching tropical-storm force along portions of the Louisiana coast Wednesday night; and coastal flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coasts expected to gradually ease later tonight and into Thursday.

Wednesday night’s update marks the final advisory the National Hurricane Center will issue on Arthur. Rainfall forecasts and flash flood risk outlooks for the storm’s remnants will continue to be available through the Weather Prediction Center.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued Wind Speed Probability Update Number 8 for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur at 3:00 a.m. Coordinated Universal Time on Thursday, June 18, 2026.

At the time of the bulletin, the center of the post-tropical system was located near latitude 29.7 degrees north and longitude 94.5 degrees west. The storm was carrying maximum sustained winds of approximately 30 knots, which equals about 35 miles per hour or 55 kilometers per hour.

The bulletin was designed to provide the probability of sustained wind speeds reaching at least 34 knots (39 mph), 50 knots (58 mph), and 64 knots (74 mph) at specific locations over the following five days. However, forecasters noted that no official forecast existed for the applicable date and time window, meaning no wind speed probability calculations could be generated for any of the listed locations.

The update was issued by Forecaster Beven.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with the latest outlook on potential wind impacts.

The graphics, which display the probability of 34-knot wind speeds over a 120-hour period, were last updated on Thursday, June 18, 2026, at approximately 2:51 a.m. GMT.

Residents in areas that could be affected by the storm’s remnants are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as conditions continue to evolve.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The graphics, which were last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 9:26 p.m. GMT, display the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring over a 120-hour forecast window.

Forecasters are urging residents in potentially affected coastal areas to stay informed and continue monitoring official updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm develops.

The National Hurricane Center has released updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing a visual look at where the storm’s winds could have an impact.

The graphics illustrate the probability of 34-knot wind speeds reaching different areas over a 120-hour forecast window, helping residents and emergency managers gauge potential risk zones.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability data was last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 9:26 p.m. GMT. Residents in potentially affected areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from official weather sources as the storm continues to develop.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with a visual look at where dangerous winds may develop over the coming days.

The graphics depict the probability of 34-knot wind speeds occurring across affected areas within a 120-hour forecast window. These types of visuals help residents and emergency managers assess potential storm impacts and plan accordingly.

The wind speed probability information was last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 9:26 PM GMT. Residents in potentially affected coastal areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm continues to develop.

Tropical Storm Arthur has re-formed near Galveston, Texas, and is now tracking toward the northeast, bringing with it the threat of life-threatening flooding across portions of the southeastern United States.

According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 7:00 PM Central Daylight Time on Wednesday, June 17, the center of the storm was positioned near coordinates 29.4 degrees north, 94.9 degrees west. Arthur was moving to the northeast at approximately 8 miles per hour.

The storm’s minimum central pressure was recorded at 1000 millibars, with maximum sustained winds of around 40 miles per hour.

Forecasters are urging residents across the affected southeastern states to take the flooding threat seriously, as conditions could become dangerous. Residents in the storm’s path should monitor updates from local emergency management officials and the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center has released updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing forecasters and the public with a look at where tropical-storm-force winds may develop over the coming days.

The graphics illustrate the probability of 34-knot winds — the threshold for tropical storm conditions — affecting different areas within a 120-hour forecast window.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability data was last updated Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at approximately 9:26 p.m. GMT.

Residents in coastal areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm continues to develop.

Tropical Storm Arthur is posing a serious threat to communities across the southeastern United States, with forecasters warning of life-threatening flooding in the region.

As of 4:00 PM CDT on Wednesday, June 17, the center of Arthur was positioned near coordinates 28.9 degrees north latitude and 96.1 degrees west longitude. The storm was tracking in a north-northeast direction at a forward speed of 7 miles per hour.

Meteorologists recorded a minimum central pressure of 1,001 millibars, with maximum sustained winds reaching approximately 45 miles per hour.

A Tropical Storm Warning continues to be in place for sections of the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. Residents in those areas are urged to take the flooding threat seriously and follow guidance from local emergency officials.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing the latest look at where potentially dangerous winds could develop over the next five days.

The graphics, which track the probability of 34-knot wind speeds, were last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 9:26 PM GMT. These probability maps help forecasters and residents understand the likelihood of tropical storm-force winds reaching specific areas.

Residents in potentially affected coastal regions are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm continues to develop.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated graphical information for Tropical Storm Arthur, providing a visual look at the probability of tropical storm-force winds reaching certain areas.

The graphics specifically display the chances of 34-knot wind speeds occurring within a 120-hour forecast window, giving forecasters and the public a clearer picture of where the storm’s impacts could be felt.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the wind speed probability data was last updated on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 9:00 PM GMT. Residents in potentially affected areas are encouraged to monitor the latest updates from official weather sources as the storm continues to develop.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued Forecast Advisory Number 7 for Tropical Storm Arthur at 9:00 p.m. UTC on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.

At the time of the advisory, the storm’s center was positioned near 28.9 degrees North latitude and 96.1 degrees West longitude, with that position accurate to within 30 nautical miles. The storm was moving toward the north-northeast at approximately 6 knots, on a heading of about 15 degrees.

Arthur was packing maximum sustained winds of 40 knots — roughly 46 miles per hour — with gusts reaching up to 50 knots. The storm’s estimated minimum central pressure stood at 1001 millibars. Tropical storm-force winds of 34 knots extended up to 150 nautical miles to the southeast of the center.

According to the forecast, Arthur is expected to weaken significantly overnight. By 6:00 a.m. UTC Thursday, June 18, the storm is projected to have degraded into a post-tropical remnant low near 30.8 degrees North and 94.6 degrees West, with maximum winds dropping to around 30 knots and gusts near 40 knots.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Arthur will have fully dissipated by 6:00 p.m. UTC on Thursday, June 18.

Ships within 300 nautical miles of the storm’s center have been asked to submit reports every three hours. Forecaster Reinhart issued the advisory, with the next update scheduled for 3:00 a.m. UTC Thursday.

The National Hurricane Center confirmed Wednesday afternoon that Tropical Storm Arthur came ashore over Matagorda County, Texas, earlier in the day, based on satellite imagery and ground-level weather observations.

Despite making landfall, Arthur’s circulation center has become increasingly disorganized and harder to pinpoint over the past several hours. A broad area of heavy thunderstorm activity continues over the northwestern Gulf of America, but powerful westerly wind shear has pushed that storm activity far away from the actual center of circulation.

Data gathered by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and marine weather stations show that tropical-storm-force winds — including strong gusts — are still occurring within that convection, located well to the east and southeast of the storm’s center. Based on a combination of aircraft data and surface observations, the storm’s current maximum sustained winds are estimated at 40 knots, or about 45 miles per hour.

The storm’s center tracked farther north than forecasters initially anticipated, moving north-northeastward at roughly 6 knots. Most computer forecast models indicate the circulation will fall apart within the next 6 to 12 hours. Wednesday’s updated track forecast shifted the projected path farther inland compared to earlier predictions, though forecasters note that has little practical impact since the most dangerous conditions are occurring well east of the center.

With Arthur now over land and battling strong wind shear along with drier air moving in from the west, further weakening is expected. Forecast models suggest the storm’s associated thunderstorm activity will largely collapse overnight Wednesday. The 12-hour forecast designates Arthur as a remnant low, though forecasters say it could dissipate even sooner than that.

Some weather models — specifically the European and Canadian models — hint at the possibility of a new area of low pressure developing over the western Atlantic later this week or into the weekend, as leftover energy from Arthur moves off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Forecasters say it is unclear how tropical that system might become, and they will continue watching model data closely.

Forecasters are stressing that heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the top hazard from this storm — and that this danger extends far beyond the storm’s center, even after Arthur fully dissipates.

The National Hurricane Center issued three key messages with this forecast discussion:

First, potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding are expected to continue through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Some rivers could see isolated moderate to major flooding, and ongoing heavy rain could keep the flood threat going through the weekend.

Second, tropical-storm-force winds, particularly in gusts, are expected along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines over the next several hours, where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect.

Third, minor to moderate coastal flooding is anticipated along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana shorelines through Wednesday.

Arthur is forecast to be fully dissipated by Thursday evening. This discussion was prepared by Forecaster Reinhart at the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its seventh wind speed probability update for Tropical Storm Arthur at 9 p.m. UTC on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.

At the time of the advisory, the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was positioned near latitude 28.9 North and longitude 96.1 West, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 40 knots — equivalent to 45 mph or 75 km/h.

Forecasters calculated the probability of locations experiencing sustained tropical-storm-force winds of at least 39 mph over the next five days. The data shows the highest cumulative probabilities concentrated along the upper Texas coast.

Freeport, Texas faces a 90 percent cumulative chance of encountering tropical-storm-force winds during the forecast period, while Galveston, Texas carries an 82 percent cumulative probability. High Island, Texas sits at 66 percent, and Matagorda, Texas has a 38 percent cumulative chance.

Further inland and along the Louisiana border, Port Arthur, Texas has a 32 percent cumulative probability of tropical-storm-force winds. Kountze, Texas stands at 22 percent, while Port O’Connor, Texas is at 11 percent.

Communities in southwest Louisiana, including Lake Charles and Cameron, each carry an 8 percent cumulative probability of tropical-storm-force winds. Fort Polk, Louisiana sits at 3 percent. Houston, Texas and Jasper, Texas each show a 7 to 8 percent cumulative probability.

No locations in the forecast area currently show significant probabilities of winds reaching 58 mph or higher during the five-day outlook period.

The advisory was prepared by Forecaster Reinhart at the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center has issued updated wind speed probability graphics for Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named Atlantic storm of the 2026 hurricane season.

The latest imagery, released Wednesday, June 17, 2026, depicts the probability of 34-knot wind speeds associated with the storm over a 120-hour forecast period.

Residents in potentially affected coastal areas are encouraged to monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center as the storm continues to develop.