AMSTERDAM — The explosive global demand for artificial intelligence has lifted Dutch company ASML to the highest position on Europe’s stock market, and now a question once considered unrealistic is gaining traction: could this firm become the first in European history to reach a $1 trillion valuation?
ASML holds a unique position in the technology world — it is the sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet, or EUV, lithography machines, which are essential for producing the most advanced computer chips. Analysts have compared the company’s role to that of a pickaxe seller during a gold rush, supplying the critical tools that power the AI revolution.
Following a strong second-quarter earnings report, analysts at Barclays, Susquehanna, and Bernstein have each set 12-month price targets above $2,600 per share. That would represent roughly a 49% increase from current levels and would put ASML’s market cap at approximately $1 trillion.
Carolyn Bell, lead portfolio manager for Stonehage Fleming’s Global Best Ideas — where ASML makes up about 8% of the portfolio — expressed confidence in the company’s prospects. “I think it has a really good chance of being the first company in Europe to hit the trillion mark,” she said. “I just don’t know when.”
ASML has already surpassed other major European corporations, including Roche, LVMH, Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca, and SAP, in market value.
John Lamb of Capital Group, whose funds hold roughly 5% of ASML’s shares — worth approximately $35 billion — pointed to the company’s competitive advantages. “The fundamentals for the industry as a whole appear stronger than ever and ASML occupies a critical space,” he said, praising the firm’s “unique assets and wide moats.”
ASML shares currently trade at 38 times projected 2027 earnings, according to LSEG data — a significant premium over its top customer, which manufactures AI chips used by major technology and AI firms.
However, investors and analysts caution that reaching the trillion-dollar mark is far from guaranteed. Trent Masters of Alphinity Investment Management, which holds about 3% of its portfolio in ASML, warned that any slowdown in spending by major technology companies on data centers “will flow through to ASML’s earnings.” He also flagged supply chain management and geopolitical risks as concerns, though he said he remains “on balance very positive” about the company’s future.
One significant geopolitical concern involves proposed U.S. legislation known as the MATCH Act, which could restrict ASML’s ability to sell and service its equipment in China — a market the company expects to account for 20% of its sales in 2026.
Still, some analysts see reasons for optimism even if AI spending cools. Kinngai Chan of Summit Insights Group noted that memory chip manufacturers such as SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are transitioning from older equipment to ASML’s newer and more expensive EUV tools, creating what he described as a profitable “upgrade cycle” for the company.
ING analyst Marc Hesselink said ASML “can surely be” Europe’s first trillion-dollar firm. Additional growth potential includes a new chip manufacturing facility planned in Texas by Elon Musk, called the Terafab plant, which would serve SpaceX and Tesla and could become a new source of revenue for ASML.
Antoine Hucher of Aviva Investors offered a measured view, saying that if ASML executes its strategy effectively and AI demand holds steady, continued growth is likely — but not certain. “ASML could well become the first European company to reach a $1 trillion market cap,” he said. “However, the volatility we have seen with AI stocks in the last few weeks suggests the journey to this achievement won’t be a straight line.”
