The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its fourth wind speed probability advisory for Tropical Depression Two at 9:00 a.m. Coordinated Universal Time on Monday, July 20, 2026.
At the time of the advisory, the center of the storm was positioned near latitude 28.5 degrees North and longitude 85.4 degrees West, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 30 knots — equal to about 35 miles per hour or 55 kilometers per hour.
The advisory outlines the likelihood of sustained wind speeds reaching three thresholds — 39 mph, 58 mph, and 74 mph — at specific locations along the Gulf Coast over the coming five days.
Among the areas with the highest cumulative probabilities of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph are locations near the central Gulf, with some grid points showing cumulative probabilities exceeding 60 percent. The Florida Panhandle communities of Apalachicola and Panama City carry cumulative probabilities in the range of 13 to 18 percent over the five-day period.
Further west, locations in Louisiana — including New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Houma, Morgan City, and Cameron — show increasing probabilities as the forecast period extends into Wednesday and Thursday. Cameron, Louisiana carries one of the higher cumulative probabilities among named locations at 16 percent by the end of the five-day window.
Texas coastal communities including Galveston, Port Arthur, High Island, and Matagorda also appear in the probability tables, with Galveston showing a cumulative probability of 10 percent for tropical storm-force winds by the end of the forecast period.
Probabilities for stronger winds of 58 mph or greater remain limited, with only a handful of open-water grid points showing any meaningful chance of those thresholds being reached.
This advisory was prepared by forecaster Papin at the National Hurricane Center.
