Trade in goods flowing between the European Union and the United States climbed to a record €875 billion — roughly $1 trillion — last year, even as tariff pressures continued to mount. But according to a new study from the German Economic Institute (IW) released Friday, those headline numbers tell only part of the story.
EU exports heading to the U.S. jumped 7.7% to reach €580 billion, while American goods flowing into the EU rose 2.2% to €295 billion. That pushed the EU’s trade surplus to nearly €285 billion.
At first glance, the record-setting figures might lead some to conclude that tariffs introduced under President Donald Trump and the broader political tensions between the two sides have done little to disrupt trade — or may have even accidentally boosted it.
But IW economist Samina Sultan cautioned against drawing that conclusion. “This first impression is misleading,” she said, noting that certain industries are already taking a significant hit.
The automotive sector stands out as one of the hardest-hit areas. EU exports of cars and auto parts to the United States fell 20.4% in 2025. Germany, which is responsible for nearly two-thirds of all EU auto exports to the U.S., saw its own exports in that category decline by 18.9%.
Ireland was a notable exception, posting a 52.7% surge in exports — a jump driven largely by pharmaceutical and chemical products, which remain exempt from the tariffs.
On the services side of the ledger, transatlantic trade also set a new record at €865 billion, though the EU found itself on the losing end of that equation, running a €178 billion deficit in services. A large portion of that gap was driven by intellectual property fees — including software licenses, patents, and trademarks — which rose 13.7% and accounted for more than 40% of all U.S. service exports to the EU.
