WASHINGTON — The Democratic Party is on the verge of finalizing its 2028 presidential primary schedule Friday, with a major shift in the works that would push Iowa out of its long-held top spot in favor of states with more racially diverse populations.
South Carolina and Nevada are both vying aggressively to hold the first contest in the nation, and the outcome remains highly anticipated ahead of the vote by the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee. The full DNC is then set to ratify the decision when it convenes in August.
The proposed changes reflect the party’s desire to give more weight to states whose demographics more closely match the Democratic coalition — particularly Black and Latino voters — rather than continuing a calendar that historically began in Iowa and New Hampshire, two states with predominantly white electorates.
New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a progressive lawmaker considered a potential 2028 presidential contender, offered her take on the shake-up. “I think that it is good that we don’t take the order for granted, and just copy and paste it every cycle,” she said.
The stakes are high because the 2028 race is expected to draw a crowded field of Democratic candidates with no incumbent president or clear frontrunner. That means the states voting earliest could once again carry enormous influence over which candidates gain momentum, attract financial support, and emerge as serious contenders.
Meanwhile, Republicans are expected to keep their traditional early-state lineup intact, with Iowa and New Hampshire continuing to lead their nominating calendar.
South Carolina was elevated to the front of the 2024 Democratic primary calendar at the urging of President Joe Biden, after the state played a pivotal role in rescuing his 2020 presidential campaign. The state has historically been the first Southern contest and is considered a major benchmark for candidates seeking support among Black voters.
With no incumbent in the 2028 race, however, the debate over the calendar has grown more heated. In May, Democratic leaders from several southern states wrote to the DNC urging South Carolina to keep its top spot, calling the state “a moral and political compass for our party and our nation” and arguing it offers the best early test for building the coalitions needed to win a general election.
Nevada has pushed back just as forcefully, arguing its combination of racial diversity, a strong labor union presence, and battleground-state status makes it the ideal launching pad for the Democratic primary. The state is home to one of the country’s largest Hispanic populations, a substantial Black electorate, and the influential Culinary Workers Union.
Nevada Rep. Susie Lee made the case for her state this week: “If you want to have a robust indicator of what an American electorate will be like, that will put us in the strongest position to put forth a primary candidate, I think it’s pretty clear that Nevada should be first.”
Black leaders have strongly objected to the idea of pushing South Carolina aside after only one cycle. Roughly one-quarter of South Carolina’s population is Black, according to the U.S. Census. Rev. Al Sharpton issued a pointed warning in a statement: “If South Carolina gets quietly bumped after one cycle of convenient praise, that sends a message louder than any speech at a Democratic dinner: the gratitude was performance, not policy.”
The DNC plans to select four early-voting states — one from each region of the country — and is also weighing whether to add a fifth. For the Midwest slot, Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan have all submitted bids. Michigan is seen as a frontrunner for that regional position, though it did not seek the overall first spot.
The calendar decision marks one of the first major milestones in what is shaping up to be a wide-open Democratic presidential race — the first truly competitive primary without an incumbent or dominant frontrunner in nearly two decades.
Prospective candidates have already begun making moves in key early states. Many have visited South Carolina, partnering with the state Democratic Party on listening tours, appearing alongside influential Rep. Jim Clyburn at his annual fish fry, and connecting with local activists. Michigan has also become an increasingly popular destination for potential candidates. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg relocated to Michigan several years ago and has been steadily cultivating political ties there, making an early Michigan primary potentially advantageous for his prospects and others focused on battleground states.
