BEIJING — China’s export sector is expected to have posted another solid month of growth in June, though at a slightly slower pace than May, as companies raced to get goods to the United States before potential new tariffs kicked in, capitalized on surging global demand for artificial intelligence technology, and slashed prices to attract budget-conscious buyers around the world.
A Reuters survey of 20 economists projects that Chinese exports rose 18.2% compared to the same month last year when measured in U.S. dollars — a step down from the 19.4% growth recorded in May, but still a strong figure by most standards.
The worldwide boom in AI investment has become a crucial support for China’s $20 trillion economy, giving manufacturers a cushion against growing headwinds including disruptions tied to conflict in the Middle East and an ongoing slump in the country’s property market.
On the import side, economists expect a 24% year-on-year increase, slowing from the 27.4% pace seen the month before. Export data from South Korea — often used as an indicator of Chinese import activity — suggests that most of that demand came from purchases of semiconductors and other components used in tech products, rather than a broader rebound in consumer spending inside China.
Manufacturing data released at the end of last month showed overseas demand beginning to pick up, but factory prices kept falling as Chinese companies continued cutting costs to win contracts from international customers already feeling the pinch from higher energy prices connected to the Iran conflict.
Chinese exporters also received a lift from U.S. retailers, who moved their orders up by four to six weeks to build up inventory for Black Friday and Christmas shopping seasons before anticipated tariff increases later this year. Still, uncertainty lingers following U.S. President Donald Trump’s May trip to Beijing, which did not produce the major agreements many observers had anticipated.
Economists were divided in their predictions for June. BNP Paribas and Mizuho Securities each projected a 20% jump in exports, in line with the robust growth seen throughout the first half of the year. On the more cautious end, China Industrial Securities and Shanghai Securities both projected growth of just 12%.
While exports helped China beat expectations during the first quarter, the economy has lost momentum since then. That slowdown has deepened worries that weak domestic spending leaves China’s growth heavily dependent on foreign markets — and has strengthened calls for additional government policy support.
China is set to release its second-quarter GDP figure on Wednesday. The government has established a growth target in the range of 4.5% to 5%.
Trade figures from last month underscored a notable imbalance: demand for semiconductors stayed robust, while most other categories of Chinese exports saw minimal growth. Furniture exports, for instance, increased just 1.9% in value terms year-on-year through May, while shipments of automated data processing equipment surged 60% over the same period.
China’s trade surplus for June is forecast to reach $120.60 billion, up from $105.43 billion in May.
