DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — New research published Thursday reveals that violence has escalated markedly across multiple African nations following former President Donald Trump’s abrupt elimination of the U.S. Agency for International Development last year, which had served as a major international aid provider.
The study authors stopped short of directly attributing the violence surge to the USAID termination, but emphasized their findings illustrate how “large-scale, sudden aid cuts can destabilize fragile settings.” The researchers clarified this doesn’t prove increased aid prevents conflict, but rather highlights “the effect of a sudden and unexpected disruption.”
USAID had delivered essential assistance to African nations devastated by conflict and violence for decades. The Trump administration’s elimination of over 90% of foreign aid agreements effectively slashed approximately $60 billion in assistance.
European and American university researchers conducting the study noted that the sudden termination of USAID resources also disrupted existing agreements, personnel arrangements, and aid distribution networks.
“The abrupt withdrawal of USAID led to a significant and sustained increase in conflict across Africa’s most USAID-dependent regions,” the researchers wrote in their findings published in the Science journal.
The investigation analyzed whether USAID’s immediate shutdown correlated with increased violence in African areas that had historically received substantial support, discovering a clear connection.
Conflict specialists indicate Africa currently faces greater jihadi threats than any other global region. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, or ACLED, reported Wednesday that regional jihadis have escalated their involvement in widespread violence and increasingly targeted civilians over the past four years.
For years, USAID served as the primary funding source for numerous African countries, delivering resources that enabled governments and humanitarian organizations to address various crises across multiple sectors.
Nigeria exemplifies this relationship, where USAID assistance supported victims of the militant Boko Haram organization, active since 2002. In Ethiopia’s unstable Tigray region, local officials depended extensively on U.S. funding while comprehensive recovery initiatives remained stalled following warfare that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
Additionally, in northern Ivory Coast, positioned at the forefront of global anti-extremism efforts, USAID had committed substantial financial resources to combat the expansion of al-Qaida and the Islamic State group.
Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the Humanitarian Research Lab at the Yale School of Public Health, who wasn’t involved in the research, emphasized the study’s findings highlight the enduring consequences of funding reductions.
“The lasting problem with the shuttering of USAID is likely going to be that for much of its conflict prevention work, even if you put back all the money … the experience is gone,” Raymond said.
Furthermore, certain USAID initiatives may have prevented conflict expansion beyond affected zones, according to Ladd Serwat, senior Africa analyst at ACLED.
“We now see increasing insurgency and spillover, so some of those programs may have supported these communities from insurgent threats, and now they are no longer active,” said Serwat.
