We are monitoring the potential for another round of strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the Mid-Atlantic. While confidence is increasing that thunderstorms will develop, the magnitude and placement of the greatest severe weather threat will depend heavily on how conditions evolve during the morning hours.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from portions of the Lower Great Lakes through the central Appalachians and into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. These early-day storms could limit daytime heating in some areas, reducing atmospheric instability. However, locations that receive sufficient breaks in the clouds will have the opportunity to destabilize during the afternoon as warm, humid air remains firmly in place.
Forecast guidance indicates moderate to strong instability may develop by the afternoon, providing an increasingly favorable environment for severe thunderstorm development ahead of an advancing cold front.
As upper-level winds strengthen, thunderstorms are expected to organize into supercells and bowing line segments capable of producing severe weather. The greatest concern at this time is the potential for damaging straight-line winds, which could result in scattered tree damage and isolated power outages.
In addition to the wind threat, large hail will be possible with any discrete supercell thunderstorms that develop. There is also the potential for a few tornadoes Tuesday afternoon and evening, particularly near and south of the developing surface low where low-level wind shear is expected to become more favorable.
Forecast confidence in the overall severe weather environment is increasing, but the exact location of the highest threat remains dependent on the evolution of Tuesday morning’s thunderstorms. Areas that experience more sunshine during the afternoon will have the greatest opportunity for stronger storm development.
We will continue to monitor forecast trends closely over the next 24 hours and provide updates as new data becomes available. Residents across Delmarva are encouraged to stay weather aware Tuesday and ensure they have multiple reliable ways to receive watches and warnings should severe weather develop.
