WASHINGTON — The 2024 midterm election cycle officially launches Tuesday with primary elections that will offer the first real indicators of voter sentiment as we approach the general election season. Results from Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas will shed light on what Americans are looking for as President Donald Trump’s second presidency reaches its midpoint.
GOP leaders claim Trump’s latest electoral victory handed them a sweeping mandate to advance their policy priorities. Democratic leaders are working to challenge that narrative, highlighting their recent electoral wins as evidence they can regain ground in the nation’s capital.
Primary contests will continue through September, setting the stage for November’s general election that will decide which party controls Congress and governor’s mansions nationwide.
Several key questions emerge: How much sway does Trump maintain even as a lame-duck president? Will Democratic voters choose established leaders or newcomers? What impact will new district maps have on competitive races?
These are among the major storylines to follow as primary season gets underway.
Trump’s backing continues to be highly sought after among GOP hopefuls, with the former president supporting over 200 congressional and state executive candidates this cycle, based on Associated Press tracking.
However, Trump hasn’t weighed in on every contest.
In Texas, he’s remained neutral in the race involving Sen. John Cornyn and his two primary opponents, state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. While Cornyn has long-standing Republican credentials, both Paxton and Hunt are working to gain ground by highlighting their loyalty to Trump.
Rep. Dan Crenshaw of Texas also lacks Trump’s endorsement. The Houston-area representative generally aligns with his party on issues like immigration enforcement and policies regarding transgender youth, but he has backed military aid to Ukraine and criticized fellow Republicans who continue promoting unfounded claims about the 2020 election being stolen from Trump.
Crenshaw faces a challenge from state Rep. Steve Toth, with both candidates questioning each other’s conservative credentials.
Traditional fundraising advantages favor incumbents, and both Cornyn and Crenshaw are vastly outspending their opponents on campaign ads. Whether this financial edge will protect them without Trump’s explicit support remains uncertain.
While Trump has shaped American politics for the past decade, Democrats continue debating their response strategy. Should the party prioritize a combative approach or focus on unity and healing?
Texas provides a clear contrast in the Senate primary race. Rep. Jasmine Crockett has built her reputation on confronting Republicans directly. Her campaign ads highlight that she “drives the president crazy” and emphasize that “Crockett fights for us.” This approach views political conflict as energizing for Democrats who believe their party has been too passive.
The alternative is represented by state Rep. James Talarico, a former middle school educator pursuing divinity studies. He rejects “politics as a blood sport” and argues voters seek “a return to more timeless values of sincerity and honesty and compassion and respect.”
Democrats have spent years attempting to flip Texas from Republican red to competitive purple without success. Some believe this could be their year as Trump’s popularity declines. The question remains which type of candidate voters will prefer.
The generational divide extends beyond campaign style to candidate age and experience.
Rep. Christian Menefee, 37, is challenging Rep. Al Green, 78, in Texas. They’re competing against each other because redistricting merged portions of their separate districts.
Menefee, just weeks into his first term after winning a special election, is attempting to unseat Green, who is serving his 11th term.
Protect Progress, a cryptocurrency-focused super PAC, is running ads declaring “Democrats used to be the party of the future” and calling for voters to “pass the torch” to Menefee.
In North Carolina, Rep. Valerie Foushee, 69, faces progressive challenger Nida Allam, 32, who has received endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Justice Democrats. This rematch follows Foushee’s victory over Allam and other candidates in a competitive 2022 primary.
Allam, currently a county commissioner, is campaigning on promises of a “brighter future.”
North Carolina holds the unfortunate record for congressional redistricting frequency over the past decade. The state has implemented different maps for every election since 2020, plus two additional maps in the previous decade.
Nearly all districts in the current version, created by the Republican-controlled state legislature last fall, heavily favor one party or the other. The sole exception is the 1st Congressional District, which leans Republican but could potentially be competitive for Democrats.
This partisan sorting means primary elections will essentially determine most House seats, rather than November’s general election. This lack of general election competition appears to fuel voter apathy.
During the last three presidential elections, when North Carolina was a key battleground, the state ranked between 11th and 14th nationally in voter turnout, according to US Elections Project data. However, in the past four midterm cycles, it hasn’t ranked higher than 23rd.
Limited competition also translates to reduced campaign spending. In the 1st District, five Republican candidates have collectively spent nearly $4.5 million, according to Federal Election Commission records. That exceeds the combined Democratic and Republican spending in any other state race by more than three times.
Despite North Carolina’s closely divided political landscape, the redistricting process has created fewer opportunities for voters to influence the House’s balance of power.
