LAS VEGAS (AP) — Las Vegas betting markets suggest the real NBA championship battle may unfold in a potential Western Conference clash between defending titleholder Oklahoma City and San Antonio, a squad that dominated the Thunder during regular season play.
However, sportsbook numbers also suggest not overlooking Boston as NBA postseason action commences, given the Celtics captured their record 18th title just two seasons ago.
Oklahoma City stands as the +120 betting choice at BetMGM Sportsbook to become the first franchise since Golden State in 2018 to claim back-to-back championships. San Antonio, which beat the Thunder in four of their five regular season encounters, follows at +450 odds. Boston remains within striking distance at +550.
All remaining franchises carry betting lines of 10-1 or higher.
“The West team is going to be favored in the final unless there’s a real shocker,” said Bruce Marshall, handicapper for WagerTalk/Gold Sheet. “We’re assuming it’s Oklahoma or San Antonio. Either of those two would be favored. Boston would have the best chance, I think, in the East, followed by the Knicks and then Detroit.”
David Lieberman, pro basketball lead at Caesars Sportsbook, expressed caution about assuming favorites would wind up in the NBA Finals.
“It should be pretty wide open this year, and I can see any of the top 3-5 seeds making a run in each conference,” Lieberman said. “I expect several long, competitive series all the way through.”
Jayson Tatum’s earlier-than-expected return from an Achilles tendon tear sustained in last year’s playoffs has made bettors believers of the Celtics. Boston was listed at 10-1 before his comeback, and 8.7% of the bets and 8.2% of the money at BetMGM are on the Celtics. That’s behind only the Pistons in the Eastern Conference (10.2% of bets, 9.7% of the handle).
Detroit has generated significant optimism with Cade Cunningham returning after missing approximately three weeks due to a collapsed lung.
Despite the Western Conference’s superior depth and talent, numerous bettors are finding value in Eastern Conference wagering opportunities.
“The Detroit Pistons have been getting bet all year, and now with Cade Cunningham back and healthy, bets are coming in on them again,” Lieberman said. “The top five seeds in the East have been pretty popular bets of late, so I think there is some belief in those teams outside of the Celtics.”
Los Angeles Lakers generated considerable discussion as a potential dark horse contender in the West before Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) suffered injuries this month.
BetMGM’s wagering figures demonstrate minimal confidence in the Lakers’ championship prospects. Los Angeles carries 125-1 odds to advance from the Western Conference and 250-1 to capture the title.
The fourth-seeded Lakers begin postseason play against fifth-ranked Houston. The Rockets are 8-1 series favorites despite lacking home-court advantage.
“The moment Luka got hurt, the chances of the Lakers making a deep run ended,” Marshall said. “Houston has been playing better, so I think that Lakers (have a) short stay. It’s too bad because it was looking like they might be menacing for a while when all the hands were on deck.”
Should betting predictions prove accurate, Tuesday and Wednesday’s four play-in tournament contests should remain competitive until the final moments.
Charlotte and Los Angeles Clippers, each favored by 5 1/2 points, represent BetMGM’s largest spreads.
The Hornets face Miami, with the victor meeting either Orlando or Philadelphia before potentially challenging top-seeded Detroit. Philadelphia holds a 1 1/2-point edge over Orlando, with that winner advancing to face Boston.
In Western Conference action, the Clippers battle Golden State for the opportunity to face Portland or Phoenix before potentially meeting Oklahoma City. Phoenix carries a 3 1/2-point advantage over Portland, with that victor set to challenge San Antonio.
Marshall concurred with NBA Commissioner Adam Silver regarding tanking as a significant league concern.
Teams potentially not providing maximum effort won’t influence playoff betting, unlike regular season wagering.
“Actually, I kind of enjoyed it when you got these teams that weren’t trying because you could try to go against them, although the oddsmakers were really making us pay with a lot of these numbers,” Marshall said. “It’s really a disease in the NBA and they’re trying to address, but it gets worse every year with the tanking stuff. As soon as a team sees they’re out of the playoff picture, they try not to win.”
