Hurricane Season Outlook: El Niño May Reduce Storms, But Warm Waters Keep Danger High

Weather forecasters are weighing two competing factors as they assess the risk heading into this hurricane season — and the bottom line is that the danger remains significant.

On one hand, the El Niño weather pattern is expected to put a damper on how many Atlantic storms develop this year. El Niño typically disrupts storm formation, which could mean fewer named systems overall.

On the other hand, ocean water temperatures are running unusually warm — a condition that can supercharge any storms that do form, making them more intense and potentially more destructive.

Adding to the concern, Tropical Storm Bertha is currently tracking along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, according to satellite imagery captured Tuesday morning by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Meteorologists warn that even a season with fewer storms can still produce catastrophic hurricanes if the conditions are right, and the warm waters present this year create exactly those conditions.

Coastal residents and those in storm-prone areas are urged to stay informed and have emergency plans in place as the season continues to unfold.