SAO PAULO – A new survey released Tuesday shows Brazil’s upcoming presidential race could be extremely close, with current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro running virtually even in polling data.
The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey indicates that in a hypothetical second-round matchup, the conservative challenger Bolsonaro would capture 47.8% of voter support, while the leftist president would earn 47.5%.
This represents a slight shift from March polling, which had shown Bolsonaro at 47.6% compared to Lula’s 46.6%. Another recent survey from BTG Pactual/Nexus released Monday similarly found the two leading candidates in a statistical dead heat.
When looking at potential first-round voting scenarios, the polling data suggests Lula could earn between 44.2% and 46.6% of votes, while Bolsonaro might receive between 39.3% and 39.7%, with exact percentages varying based on which other candidates participate.
Under Brazil’s electoral system, any race where no candidate secures more than half of valid votes triggers a runoff between the top two finishers – a scenario that has occurred in every presidential election since 2002.
The South American nation’s general elections are scheduled for October, and financial markets have been closely monitoring polling trends since December, when former President Jair Bolsonaro – currently under house arrest – threw his support behind his 44-year-old son Flavio.
The 80-year-old Lula, who previously defeated the elder Bolsonaro in the 2022 election, is now pursuing what would be his fourth non-consecutive presidential term.
The AtlasIntel poll questioned 5,008 respondents between April 22 and 27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
