OMAHA, Neb. — Democratic voters in Nebraska will decide Tuesday which candidate gets the chance to compete for a crucial congressional seat that plays an outsized role in presidential elections.
The contest centers on Nebraska’s 2nd District around Omaha, where retiring Republican Representative Don Bacon has held office. This district draws national attention because Nebraska splits its electoral votes, unlike most states, creating what political observers call a “blue dot” in an otherwise Republican state.
Since 2008, Democratic presidential candidates have captured this district’s electoral vote three times out of five elections, making it a key battleground every four years.
Tuesday’s Democratic primary features three leading candidates: state Senator John Cavanaugh, activist Denise Powell, and district court clerk Crystal Rhoades. On the Republican side, Omaha City Council member Brinker Harding runs without opposition, having secured former President Donald Trump’s endorsement.
Cavanaugh has faced criticism from multiple directions throughout the campaign season.
Fellow Democrats worry that his congressional victory could backfire for the party. Their concern stems from the fact that Nebraska’s Republican governor would select Cavanaugh’s replacement in the state legislature, potentially giving GOP lawmakers additional power.
This strategic concern has dominated primary discussions more than traditional policy debates.
Critics within his own party focus less on Cavanaugh’s political positions and more on potential consequences of his departure from state government.
Campaign materials from opposing candidates and supporting organizations have saturated local media with warnings about what might happen if Cavanaugh advances. They argue that a Republican replacement could help pass conservative legislation on abortion restrictions and transgender issues.
Some Democrats also fear that additional Republican legislative strength could enable redistricting changes or eliminate Nebraska’s split electoral vote system. State Republicans attempted unsuccessfully in 2024 to switch Nebraska to a winner-take-all electoral system like 48 other states.
A television advertisement from the New Democrat Majority super PAC warns: “Our Blue Dot. We fought hard for it. But if John Cavanaugh goes to Congress, it could all fall down.”
EMILY’s List, which supports female candidates nationwide, has backed Powell’s campaign while describing Cavanaugh’s candidacy as “a gift to MAGA Republicans.”
Republican organizations have distributed materials suggesting Cavanaugh aligns with Trump’s positions, including manipulated images showing the two politicians together.
“Clearly, the Republicans know that I’m the strongest general election candidate,” Cavanaugh responded. “And so they’re trying to hurt me.”
Former Nebraska Democratic Party executive director Paul Landow believes the attacks indicate both parties view Cavanaugh as the most electable candidate in November.
Landow dismissed concerns about the “blue dot” as misleading, pointing out that Republicans already hold a filibuster-proof legislative majority but still struggle to pass controversial measures due to internal opposition. He also noted that Democrats could gain legislative seats in upcoming elections.
“There’s so many things that have to fall into place for this alleged danger to the ‘blue dot,’” Landow explained. “It’s just wild speculation.”
While Democratic candidates share common ground opposing Trump administration policies on immigration, healthcare, and military actions, tensions have escalated as primary day approaches.
Campaign spending data from AdImpact shows candidates and allied groups have invested over $2.6 million in television and digital advertisements since January, with most funding supporting Cavanaugh and Powell.
Cavanaugh’s campaign has spent approximately $375,000 on advertising, while Powell’s campaign invested $345,000. However, outside groups supporting Powell have significantly amplified her message.
Powell helped establish Women Who Run Nebraska, a political action committee supporting progressive female candidates, and brings ten years of Democratic activism experience. Despite never holding elected office, she believes her community connections appeal to independent and third-party voters, who comprise nearly 30% of district residents.
“My name recognition has increased dramatically,” Powell stated, adding that “people are really connecting with my message.”
Rhoades brings two decades of public service experience and a track record of managing successful local Democratic campaigns, including Omaha Mayor John Ewing’s upset victory over a longtime Republican incumbent last year. Although she has raised less money than her competitors, Rhoades has deliberately avoided television advertising in favor of direct voter contact through door-to-door campaigning.
Both Powell and Rhoades have emphasized concerns about Democratic influence declining if Cavanaugh wins the congressional nomination.
Tuesday’s primary winner will enter a challenging general election campaign. Trump carried the district in 2016, and Bacon, despite conflicts with Trump, has successfully defended the House seat through five terms.
The ballot also includes a U.S. Senate race where Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts seeks a full term after his 2023 appointment and 2024 special election victory replacing Ben Sasse.
Ricketts confronts four Republican primary opponents but anticipates facing independent candidate Dan Osborn in the general election. Osborn, an industrial mechanic and military veteran, came within seven points of defeating Republican Senator Deb Fischer in her 2024 reelection campaign. Democratic primary candidates include William Forbes and Cindy Burbank.
In the gubernatorial race, Republican Governor Jim Pillen faces five primary challengers, while former state Senator Lynne Walz competes against frequent candidate Larry Marvin for the Democratic nomination. Marvin has previously sought the U.S. Senate four times since 2012.
