WAHOO, NE — Fierce winds buffeted Doug Bartek as the fifth-generation farmer made his way into a grain storage facility to move soybeans using a conveyor system. The 60-year-old expressed deep concern as spring planting approached, listing numerous challenges threatening his family’s agricultural operation on their 2,000-acre Nebraska property near Wahoo.
Rising expenses for fuel, machinery, and fertilizer — made worse by the conflict in Iran — along with trade barriers, alleged supplier price manipulation, and depressed soybean values caused by worldwide oversupply are all weighing heavily on Bartek, who serves as chairman of the Nebraska Soybean Association.
“Our biggest struggles are our inputs, be it fertilizer, seed, chemical, parts,” Bartek said. “There has been so much drastic markup in all of these. And I just kind of feel like the farmer’s kind of painted in the corner.”
Bartek’s worries echo throughout the Midwest soybean farming community. Production expenses like equipment have gradually increased while soybean market values remain depressed. Trade barriers imposed by the Trump administration and the subsequent extended trade dispute with China worsened conditions, farmers report. The Iranian conflict then disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting worldwide fertilizer availability and causing fertilizer costs to surge. A ceasefire agreement announced April 7 offered hope for reduced shipping delays, though the deal’s long-term stability remained questionable.
“A lot of producers are pretty nervous going into this year,” said Justin Sherlock, a soybean farmer and president of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association. “It looks like we’re going to have another year of negative returns.”
Soybeans serve multiple purposes including animal feed, human consumption, and biofuel production, ranking among America’s leading agricultural exports. This prominence is relatively recent. Prior to the 1960s, soybeans held minor importance in American agriculture, according to Chad Hart, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University. Soybean cultivation didn’t expand significantly until the 1990s when international demand — especially from China — accelerated, making soybeans and corn the dominant crops in American farming.
However, American soybean producers, who commonly also cultivate corn, have encountered financial difficulties for years before the Iranian conflict began. Soybean market prices have remained consistently low recently. The worldwide market has been flooded with soybeans, partially due to Brazil overtaking the United States as the globe’s top soybean producer several years ago.
“If we look at global soybean production over the past several years, it continues to set record, after record, after record,” Hart said. “There’s been just large supplies globally, and that has led to depressed prices.”
Simultaneously, Midwest soybean producers’ expenses have climbed. Total farm operating costs, including seeds and pesticides, have risen over time, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Soybean production operating expenses have remained high since 2020 and are forecast to increase again in 2026, the agency reports.
Land expenses also present a significant challenge for farmers, specialists note. Midwest agricultural land values have appreciated. Most area farmers lease portions of their property, according to Joana Colussi, research assistant professor in the agricultural economics department at Purdue University.
Bartek, who leases three-quarters of his farmland, reported that property owners are raising rental rates, creating additional financial pressure.
“There’s a lot of what I call absentee landowners that have absolutely no idea what goes on on the farm,” he said. “All they know is their taxes went up and you get to make up the difference, some way, somehow.”
“They’re very concerned about negative margins driven by low prices and high cost,” said Paul Mitchell, a professor of agricultural and applied economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, of farmers. “There’s just a liquidity cash crunch for a lot of them and they’re just trying to figure out how to deal with everything.”
The total number of farms nationwide has decreased over time and agricultural consolidation represents a long-standing pattern, though farmers’ financial stress from elevated input costs and low commodity values has contributed, Hart explained. Larger operations tend to be more competitive and rely on costly, sophisticated equipment.
“The financial reserves need(ed) on a farm are much greater than they used to be,” Hart said. “We’re a bit more sensitive to the financial conditions these days because so much capital is being utilized within the farm business.”
Market dynamics aren’t the sole concern affecting farmers. Comprehensive trade barriers implemented by President Donald Trump in April 2025 intensified a trade dispute with China, the primary purchaser of American soybeans. China retaliated with counter-tariffs and essentially boycotted American soybeans, eliminating a crucial export market for Midwest producers and further depressing soybean prices.
“When that was announced and soybean prices basically collapsed, if you could afford to hold on to your beans and wait for better times, you were OK,” said Mike Cerny, a soybean, and winter wheat corn farmer in Sharon, Wisconsin. “If you had a mortgage due or payments due or cash flow needs and you had to sell at that point, you were taking it pretty rough.”
The United States and China eventually negotiated an agreement in late 2025. Beijing pledged to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans by January and at least 25 million metric tons yearly for three subsequent years. China has fulfilled its initial soybean buying commitment and the Trump administration also implemented a $12 billion temporary assistance program in December to support farmers impacted by the trade dispute.
However, the harm has already occurred, specialists and farmers report. While China’s resumed purchases and federal payments provide help, it’s insufficient to offset farmers’ losses. Even with federal assistance, farmers still lost nearly $75 per harvested soybean acre in the 2025 crop, according to the American Soybean Association. The trade dispute also pushed China toward alternative soybean suppliers like Brazil — accelerating a pattern of declining American soybean exports to China.
“When China decided to stop purchasing, we couldn’t find enough other markets to replace those sales,” Hart said. “We’re still feeling the impacts today. When you look at where soybean exports are today versus where we would normally expect them to be, we’re still running anywhere from 15% to 20% behind normal.”
Joseph Glauber, former chief economist at the Department of Agriculture between 2008 and 2014, noted that global competitors to American soybean farmers benefited from the trade dispute.
“When China has put on tariffs against the U.S. they’ve tended to buy then from Brazil or Argentina, largely Brazil,” Glauber added. “We’re not nearly as dominant in the world as we used to be in terms of the global export market for soybeans.”
Following the February 28 attack on Iran by the United States and Israel, a dramatic reduction in shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to spike. The shipping disruption also virtually halted nitrogen fertilizer exports manufactured in the Persian Gulf and restricted access to essential fertilizer components. The cost of urea, the most commonly traded nitrogen fertilizer, soared.
Soybeans don’t need nitrogen fertilizer, but it’s essential for corn and most soybean producers also cultivate corn. Approximately half the world’s urea supply originates from the Middle East, with Qatar and Saudi Arabia ranking among the top sources of American fertilizer imports, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
The United States and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement last week that included reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but traffic remained reduced due to disagreements over Israeli operations in Lebanon, and urea prices stay elevated.
Many Midwest farmers purchased their fertilizer far ahead of the spring planting period. However, some farmers who didn’t buy early encounter higher prices. Dave Walton, a corn, soybean, and hay farmer in Iowa and vice president of the American Soybean Association, reported in March that some neighbors lacked available cash last fall to purchase fertilizer and were struggling to budget for fertilizer due to elevated costs.
The conflict also caused gasoline and diesel prices to jump, creating additional problems for farmers. Oil prices declined following the ceasefire announcement, but the war and strait closure will have enduring effects on farmers, said Seth Goldstein, a senior equity analyst at Morningstar, an investment research company. Middle Eastern facilities crucial for exporting chemicals, oil and other commodities suffered damage or destruction during the war and supply chains will need time to recover, he explained.
“Facilities have been hit, like liquid natural gas plants,” Goldstein added. “You are also looking at a big supply crunch in commodity chemicals, which are the inputs for crop chemicals.”
“We burn a lot of diesel fuel,” said Chris Gould, a corn and soybean farmer in Maple Park, Illinois. “It’s hard to say if I’m gonna come out ahead or behind on this whole deal. But I suspect I’m going to come out behind.”
Farmers’ financial troubles are appearing in various indicators. Farm bankruptcies, though still relatively uncommon, continued rising in 2025, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. In a survey of 400 farmers conducted by researchers at the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture in late March, nearly half reported their farm operation is financially worse than one year prior.
Goldstein, the Morningstar analyst, noted farmers’ elevated costs and reduced revenues contributed to the bankruptcy increase between 2024 and 2025. If expenses rise faster than crop prices moving forward, he added, that “would strain farmers again and likely lead to more bankruptcies.”
After 43 years of farming, Bartek said the aroma of fresh soil still excites him for spring planting. But he’s also aware of farmer suicides, bankruptcies and “retirement sales” where farmers are compelled to auction their operations due to financial difficulties. Bartek compares farmers to gamblers who invest “millions of dollars in the dirt” hoping for profits.
Sometimes, Bartek questions his own choice to enter farming. He’s also concerned about his son, who bought a farm several years ago.
Bartek wonders: “Did I do the right thing helping him get into farming?”
