A crucial special election taking place Tuesday in Michigan could provide early insights into this fall’s midterm elections while simultaneously deciding control of the state’s Senate during Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s remaining months in office.
The contest features Democrat Chedrick Greene facing off against Republican Jason Tunney for the 35th state Senate district position that became open in January 2025. Libertarian Ali Sledz is also seeking the seat. The district encompasses communities including Saginaw, Bay City and Midland, situated roughly 100 miles north of Detroit.
With Democrats holding a narrow 19-18 advantage in the state Senate, Tuesday’s results will significantly impact the legislative priorities that can advance before Whitmer, who faces term limits, departs office in January. Her departure has already sparked a competitive gubernatorial contest for November.
Political observers are scrutinizing this race for early signals about November’s broader electoral landscape in this key swing state. The district contains portions of Saginaw County, which holds the distinction of supporting the victorious presidential candidate in the last five consecutive elections.
“It’s really this microcosm of the Midwest, frankly,” said Democratic U.S. Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet of the seat she left upon entering Congress. “Given how much it resembles so many other places across the country, we have to look at it and say, this is an indicator of how things are going to go in November.”
Greene brings experience as both a fire captain and former Marine to his campaign, focusing on reducing costs while highlighting support from labor unions. Tunney, who previously worked as a prosecutor, has positioned himself as a conservative Republican candidate, emphasizing his deep ties to the Saginaw community.
The GOP has criticized the timing of this special election, claiming Whitmer delayed calling it for too long, resulting in the district lacking Senate representation for almost 500 days.
Should Greene prevail, Democrats would maintain their majority control. A Tunney victory would create an even split, complicating Democratic legislative efforts. Though Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II could cast tie-breaking votes, Republicans might obstruct legislation by ensuring not all members participate in voting. Republicans currently control the Michigan House.
The position being contested Tuesday only extends through year’s end, requiring another election in November. Despite the brief term, political analysts view this contest as a barometer of public opinion before midterm elections, when Democrats hope to reclaim congressional control.
However, some strategists warn against reading too much into the outcome, pointing to substantial Democratic financial investment and appearances by prominent figures including former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee contributed $250,000 to support Greene in February, stating the race will “set the tone for midterms.”
“This is a tough race to win in any environment, but they’ve stacked the deck with the spending. And you layer the overall political environment on top of it, it’s going to be tough,” said Jason Roe, a Republican strategist in the state.
While Republican Donald Trump won all three counties in the 2024 presidential election, the specific areas within District 35 show more competitive dynamics. McDonald Rivet secured the seat in 2022 with 53% support. In 2024, Democrat Kamala Harris narrowly defeated Trump in the district, 49.7% to 48.9%, powered by a commanding 17-point advantage in the Saginaw area.
The region’s history as an automotive industry center has created a substantial union membership base and significant Black population, while being surrounded by more conservative rural communities.
Cory Smidt, interim director at Michigan State University’s Institute of Public Policy and Social Research, described the district as one that “looks like the state as a whole.” While cautioning against interpreting results as a definitive midterm preview, he noted that voter participation and demographic voting trends could provide meaningful analysis.
