A complex and potentially high-impact winter storm is expected to affect the Mid-Atlantic this weekend, bringing a combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from Saturday into Monday. While confidence is increasing that much of the region will be impacted, significant uncertainty remains regarding exact precipitation types and totals due to a difficult forecast setup involving strong warm air advection overriding very cold surface temperatures.
This setup raises the risk for not only accumulating snow, but also dangerous icing, particularly across parts of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and the Delmarva Peninsula.
Snowfall Forecast Overview
The heaviest snowfall is expected across northern and western portions of the region, where colder air is more firmly established.
Across northern Maryland, including areas such as Frederick, Westminster, Bel Air, Baltimore, and Wilmington, snowfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are possible by the time the storm concludes.
Farther south and east, including Washington, Annapolis, Easton, Dover, and much of central Maryland and Delaware, snow totals are expected to range between 5 and 10 inches. Snowfall amounts begin to decrease closer to the coast as warmer air aloft works into the region.
Along the immediate coast and across portions of southern Delmarva, including Salisbury, Ocean City, and Pocomoke City, snowfall totals are forecast to range from 4 to 8 inches, with lower amounts of 3 to 6 inches possible for coastal Virginia locations such as Chincoteague, Exmore, and Cape Charles.
Significant Ice Threat Also Expected
In addition to snow, portions of the Mid-Atlantic face a serious icing risk due to periods of freezing rain and sleet.
Areas shaded in darker purple on the ice forecast indicate significant icing, where ice accretion of one quarter inch or greater is possible, along with 1 to 3 inches of sleet. This includes parts of central Maryland, the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay, and portions of interior Delaware.
Surrounding areas shown in lighter pink could still see impactful icing, with less than one quarter inch of ice accumulation and 1 to 2 inches of sleet possible. Even lighter ice amounts can cause hazardous travel, downed tree limbs, and isolated power outages.
Why This Forecast Is So Difficult
This storm is particularly challenging to forecast due to strong warm air advection aloft, which allows warmer air to surge over top of a shallow layer of arctic air locked in at the surface. This creates a narrow and highly sensitive transition zone between snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
Small changes in temperature, storm track, or precipitation intensity could lead to sharp gradients in impacts over short distances. As a result, precipitation types and totals may vary significantly from one location to another, even within the same county.
Travel and Infrastructure Impacts
The combination of heavy snow and ice could lead to dangerous travel conditions throughout the weekend. Roads may quickly become snow covered or ice glazed, especially during periods of freezing rain. Ice accumulation also increases the risk of downed trees and power lines, which could result in scattered power outages.
Residents should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions and possible travel disruptions.
How to Prepare
Residents across the Mid-Atlantic are urged to take preparation steps now, ahead of the storm:
- Avoid unnecessary travel during the height of the storm.
- Keep an emergency kit ready with flashlights, batteries, food, water, and medications.
- Charge electronic devices ahead of time in case of power outages.
- Check on elderly neighbors and those with limited mobility.
- If you must travel, keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including blankets, food, and a fully charged phone.
- Monitor the latest forecasts and updates, as adjustments to snow and ice totals are likely.
Bottom Line
This weekend’s winter storm has the potential to bring heavy snow, significant icing, and hazardous travel conditions across much of the Mid-Atlantic. While confidence is high that the region will be impacted, the exact nature of those impacts remains uncertain due to the complex interaction between warm air aloft and very cold surface temperatures.
Residents are encouraged to stay weather aware and prepared as the forecast continues to evolve over the coming days.
