NEW YORK — American companies are grappling with mounting expenses as the ongoing conflict involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran continues, with economic experts warning of potential challenges ahead including reduced hiring and business investment.
A survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics reveals that approximately half of business economists report the conflict has harmed their company operations, according to findings released Monday. Additionally, 54% cite energy price increases as a major concern, while over two-thirds have experienced higher material costs during the past three months — marking the steepest increase NABE has recorded since July 2022.
The conflict, which started with U.S. and Israeli military actions on February 28, has triggered a global energy emergency. Oil prices continue climbing as Washington and Tehran remain locked in a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, creating price pressures for companies and families worldwide. As fuel expenses mount, transportation costs are cutting deeper into business operations. Supply chain interruptions affecting essential items like fertilizer are adding additional pressure.
Companies are transferring these increased expenses to consumers through higher prices, extending beyond the immediate impact seen at gas stations.
According to NABE’s survey of economists from corporations, trade groups and universities, 48% indicated their companies are shifting at least some cost increases to customers — a decrease from 60% recorded in January. However, NABE discovered that more respondents (16%) anticipate raising prices within six months, while no companies plan price reductions.
Most survey participants report strong current sales and stable profit projections. This aligns with broader Wall Street sentiment, where impressive earnings across sectors from technology to oil have pushed markets near record levels recently.
However, only 13% of NABE survey participants anticipate profit growth in the near term — the smallest percentage since 2023, according to the organization.
Employment and spending may face additional impacts soon, with nearly 25% of survey respondents planning to reduce investment and hiring over the next six months.
“Sales over the past three months were steady, but materials costs increased and profit margins declined,” stated Martha Moore, chair of NABE’s survey, in a prepared statement. She noted that expectations had “softened” across multiple indicators while price outlook continues rising.
Moore, who serves as chief economist and managing director at the American Chemistry Council, highlighted growing recession worries. Half of survey participants see greater than a 25% probability that the U.S. enters recession within the coming year, up from 44% who projected such likelihood in January, NABE reported.
