NEW YORK (AP) — Dozens of freshly opened accounts on prediction platform Polymarket earned massive profits by wagering on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal just hours before President Trump made his announcement, raising fresh concerns about potential insider information being used for financial gain.
The wagering activity occurred despite Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric throughout Tuesday, including a social media warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight” unless Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. Eastern deadline. Few public indicators suggested a peaceful resolution was approaching.
Blockchain data analysis using crypto platform Dune reveals that no fewer than 50 accounts placed substantial “Yes” wagers on Tuesday before Trump revealed the ceasefire agreement via Truth Social around 6:30 p.m. Eastern. Each of these accounts was making their inaugural bets on the platform.
One account established Tuesday morning around 10 a.m. Eastern invested approximately $72,000 in bets at an average cost of 8.8 cents per share. Betting shares range from $0 to $1, representing users’ assessment of outcome probability from 0% to 100%. This trader ultimately collected $200,000 in winnings.
A separate account that joined April 6th and focused exclusively on this event recorded gains of $125,500.
Another wallet, established just 12 minutes prior to Trump’s announcement, invested $31,908 in “Yes” positions at 33.7 cents per share, ultimately earning an estimated $48,500 profit. The elevated share price at that time may have reflected Pakistan’s late-day diplomatic efforts to secure a two-week extension of Trump’s deadline.
Some observers suggest these Polymarket participants may have anticipated Trump would retreat from his threats, following a pattern during his second presidency where bold ultimatums are followed by reversals — a trend critics have labeled “Trump Always Chickens Out,” or TACO.
While certain traders collected substantial winnings, others remain in limbo as Polymarket has designated the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as “disputed.” The designation stems from continued Iranian restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipping and ongoing regional missile strikes. Resolution of the dispute may require up to 48 hours.
Public blockchain records cannot reveal the identity of wallet owners. Polymarket employs proxy smart contract wallets, allowing individual users to operate multiple accounts. Only Polymarket possesses internal data necessary to distinguish between new users and existing users opening additional wallets.
Polymarket declined to provide comment when contacted.
This pattern of newly established Polymarket accounts making strategic, precisely-timed wagers echoes previous incidents on the platform. Fresh accounts placed significant bets hours ahead of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s January capture, earning hundreds of thousands in profits. Similar account clusters have consistently profited from well-timed wagers on Iranian military actions.
These betting patterns have sparked ongoing questions from both the public and Congressional members regarding whether certain traders exploit insider information for prediction market profits. Bipartisan groups of senators and representatives have proposed legislation expanding insider trading definitions to encompass prediction markets.
Both leading industry platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, have acknowledged the need for broader insider trading definitions on their services.
“This is why these markets need regulation,” stated Todd Philips, a Georgia State University professor who has researched prediction markets and industry regulations. “We can’t have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets.”
