WASHINGTON — While the ongoing Iran conflict has triggered the most significant global oil supply disruption on record and pushed average gasoline prices in the United States beyond $4.50 per gallon this week, American employment appears largely unaffected so far.
Friday’s release of the Labor Department’s employment and jobless figures for April is anticipated to reveal that American businesses, nonprofit organizations, and government entities collectively created 65,000 new positions last month, based on FactSet’s polling data. This figure represents a decline from March’s unexpectedly robust addition of 178,000 jobs.
Under normal circumstances, creating 65,000 new positions monthly would seem modest. However, current conditions are far from typical. The retirement wave of Baby Boomers combined with President Donald Trump’s stricter immigration policies has reduced workforce competition and lowered the economy’s job creation requirements.
Oxford Economics’ Matthew Martin explains that the break-even threshold — representing monthly job creation needed to prevent unemployment rate increases — has dropped to approximately zero. FactSet projections suggest the unemployment rate likely held steady at 4.3% during April.
Following the February 28 military strikes by the United States and Israel, Iran responded by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. This blockade has created severe energy price spikes and prompted economists worldwide to lower their growth projections for both global and domestic economies.
However, these economic repercussions have not yet materialized in American employment statistics.
ADP’s Wednesday report indicated private sector employers created a healthy 109,000 positions in April. While ADP’s numbers don’t reliably predict Friday’s official Labor Department announcement, the hiring pace represents the strongest performance since January 2025. Additionally, Tuesday’s Labor Department data showed gross hiring activity in March exceeded levels seen in over two years.
Economic momentum is receiving support from substantial tax refund distributions this spring, stemming from Trump’s previous year’s tax reform package. These refunds enable increased consumer spending, encouraging businesses to expand their workforce in response to growing demand.
Employment markets are displaying sporadic recovery signals following a disappointing 2025. Last year’s job creation averaged just 9,700 positions monthly, marking the weakest performance outside recession periods since 2002. Elevated interest rates and uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic agenda constrained hiring decisions.
This year has shown improvement, though inconsistently — featuring two months of strong growth (160,000 new positions in January and 178,000 in March) alongside one decline (133,000 job losses in February).
American employment growth has been heavily concentrated in healthcare, as companies respond to the nation’s aging demographics by adding 360,000 healthcare positions over the past year. Meanwhile, all other sectors combined have eliminated 120,000 positions during the twelve months ending in March.
KPMG’s chief economist Diane Swonk cautions that the healthcare sector’s hiring surge may not continue indefinitely.
Last year, the Republican-controlled Congress permitted Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies to lapse. Trump’s tax legislation reduced Medicaid funding for low-income populations, while his administration implemented a $100,000 fee for H-1B visa applications. “Rural and poor urban hospitals rely most on H-1B doctors and nurses to fill open positions,” Swonk noted in Monday’s analysis. “They cannot afford the new $100,000 fee for visas. Many rural hospitals have already closed.”
Looking ahead, Oxford’s Martin observed in Wednesday’s commentary, “the question is whether the war will reverse (hiring) momentum. Heightened uncertainty impacts the labor market with a lag, and the fiscal stimulus from higher refunds will eventually wane, particularly as gas prices remain elevated.”
