WASHINGTON — After nearly two weeks of escalating bombing campaigns, the U.S. military has stopped its airstrikes against Iran, even as diplomats work urgently behind the scenes to prevent the conflict from spiraling back into all-out war.
Whether this moment marks a genuine turning point remains unclear. The conflict, which began on February 28, will reach the five-month mark on Tuesday. President Donald Trump has simultaneously threatened additional strikes and acknowledged ongoing diplomatic conversations — all while dismissing concerns that surging gas prices tied to the fighting could hurt his Republican Party in November’s midterm elections.
Another wild card: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to visit Trump in Washington next week. Israel launched the war alongside the United States on Feb. 28, but has been notably absent from the latest round of American strikes targeting Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow but vital shipping corridor that normally carries 20% of the world’s oil supply.
“The Iranians understand that perhaps it could get worse because Israel could come into the conflict,” said Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. At the same time, he noted, Israel’s absence from the recent attacks “may signal to the Iranians that we’re looking to limit the conflict.”
Singh, who previously served as senior Middle East director on the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration, urged caution about reading too much into the current pause in fighting.
“If it turns into a multiday pause, that’ll be something significant,” he said. “But it’s hard to know. Is it an operational pause? Is it a pause to allow for some kind of behind-the-scenes diplomacy?”
A regional official who is directly involved in the mediation process described active and coordinated diplomatic efforts underway, calling the halt in both U.S. airstrikes and Iranian counterstrikes on neighboring countries hosting American forces a “positive signal that helps their efforts to de-escalate.” The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, spoke on the condition of anonymity.
According to that official, both the U.S. and Iran are seeking to return to the interim ceasefire agreement that was signed in June. The compromise currently being negotiated would allow Iran to manage vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz but with fewer restrictions placed on ships passing through.
Iran began choking off the narrow Persian Gulf waterway when the war started, firing on oil tankers and cargo ships. The resulting spike in oil prices has fueled public frustration across the United States and raised political concerns for Republican lawmakers heading into November elections.
Following the June ceasefire, a new dispute erupted over who controls the strait. Iran insisted ships use a route running close to its coastline and suggested it could impose fees on vessels. Ships began taking a southern route along Oman’s coast under U.S. military oversight — until Iran attacked some of those vessels.
In response, the U.S. resumed strikes on Iran’s coastal defenses to reduce Tehran’s ability to target ships. The Trump administration then broadened its campaign, striking bridges and infrastructure in southern Iran and pushing deeper into the country’s interior.
Singh described the strikes as an effort to pressure Iran back to the negotiating table. The key question now, he said, is “What kind of messages, if any, is the Iranian regime sending through diplomatic channels? Have those messages changed? Do they seem more eager to return to talks?”
One major complication is Iran’s fractured leadership, with competing factions jockeying for power — a dynamic that Trump administration officials have also referenced. Those currently in control in Iran may fear that any compromise with Washington will be interpreted as a sign of weakness, potentially undermining their authority.
Still, both nations have strong economic incentives to see the strait reopened.
“But they have very different conceptions of under what conditions, under whose control,” Singh said. “So we have to get to some kind of stable equilibrium on those questions before you’re going to see a longer period of quiet. I think this effort to negotiate with words and also to negotiate with force is going to continue until we reach that equilibrium.”
Even with the fighting paused, the broader region remains on edge. Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced Saturday that they launched missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia in retaliation for Saudi airstrikes on the Red Sea city of Hodeida. The Iran-backed group has also declared the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed — a waterway that has grown even more critical for Saudi oil exports since the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted.
Meanwhile, the U.S. military continues enforcing its naval blockade of Iranian ports. On Friday, it disabled a Mozambique-flagged vessel in the Gulf of Oman after the ship attempted to breach the blockade and ignored repeated warnings.
Trump has kept his options open even while highlighting the diplomatic track. When asked Friday about his exit strategy, he outlined two paths.
“You can just keep doing exactly what we’re doing and take them apart piece by piece. We could do it in a more rapid fashion, which we might do,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “Or we can negotiate with them, which we’re also doing right now.”
Trump said he doesn’t believe Iran is “ready yet” to reach a deal, but added, “I think they’re getting more and more serious as the days go by, for maybe the obvious reason.”
On Friday, Trump met with senior national security advisers to assess whether to hold the current course or ramp up military pressure, according to a U.S. official who spoke anonymously to discuss private deliberations. That night marked the first without U.S. strikes on Iran after 13 consecutive nights of attacks.
As for the upcoming elections, Trump pushed back on the idea that he was rushing toward a resolution to protect his party’s political standing.
“Despite what everyone says about the election, I’m not in a hurry,” he said. “We have to do it right. Elections take care of themselves.”
