Ukraine’s highest-ranking military commander said in a televised interview aired Tuesday that his forces are actively preparing for a potential new Russian offensive launched from the north, though he considers a renewed push toward the capital to be an unlikely goal.
Oleksandr Syrskyi, speaking with TSN Ukrainian television, also addressed weeks of Ukrainian concerns that Moscow has been pressuring its ally Belarus to take a more active role in the ongoing war — saying a Belarusian-based attack is not something he views as probable.
“The most likely scenario, and this is confirmed by several data sources, is possible offensive action in the north from the territory of Russia, from the Bryansk region,” Syrskyi said. “This is a realistic option, of course, and we are preparing for it.”
He explained that the goal of such a northern offensive would not be to march on Kyiv, as Russian forces attempted following their February 2022 invasion before pulling back to concentrate on the Donbas region in the east. Rather, the strategy would likely focus on capturing territory in Ukraine’s Chernihiv region while pulling Ukrainian troops away from other parts of the 1,250-kilometer (775-mile) front line.
He described such a move as a tactic aimed at “stretching the front and depriving us of reserves.”
On the question of Belarus, Syrskyi noted that while the country allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin to use its soil as a launchpad for the initial invasion, he doubts Belarusian leadership would go that far again. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly cautioned Belarus against getting further involved in the conflict.
“In view of recent events, I don’t think the Belarusian leadership would opt to use their own territory and give it to the aggressor to use as a staging area for an offensive operation,” Syrskyi said. “At the same time, of course, we are taking this possibility into account as well.”
Earlier this month, Zelenskiy gave Belarus — led by longtime President Alexander Lukashenko — one week to shut down relay stations that Kyiv claimed were being used to strike Ukraine. Zelenskiy has since stated those stations are no longer in operation.
Syrskyi also noted signs that Russian troops are showing fatigue, with the pace of front-line fighting dropping off. He said Russian frontline activity has decreased by about 30%, while Ukrainian forces have continued carrying out long-range strikes against Russian targets, primarily those connected to the oil industry.
