More than four years after Belarus’ authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko permitted his longtime partner Russia to launch attacks on Ukraine from Belarusian soil, officials in Kyiv are sounding the alarm that Lukashenko might once again open his country’s borders for additional Kremlin assaults.
Though Belarus hasn’t sent its own soldiers into combat, Lukashenko has supported President Vladimir Putin’s military campaign by allowing Russia to station nuclear weapons and military facilities on his territory, while also manufacturing components for Moscow’s defense industry. This month, both nations conducted joint nuclear exercises featuring Russian weapons positioned in Belarus.
Lukashenko, who has maintained power for more than thirty years, has governed the country of 9.5 million people through authoritarian rule, systematically suppressing opposition while depending on strong Russian relationships and Moscow’s financial support to weather ongoing Western sanctions.
The growing military partnership between Moscow and Minsk is causing alarm among Ukraine’s international supporters.
During Putin’s large-scale assault on Ukraine beginning Feb. 24, 2022, Russian forces assembled in Belarus under the pretense of military exercises before racing toward Kyiv, located just 90 kilometers (56 miles) from the border.
Putin’s strategy to rapidly seize Kyiv was defeated by determined Ukrainian defense, leaving Russian tank columns stretched along narrow roadways vulnerable to attack.
Slightly more than one month into the invasion, Russian forces that experienced significant casualties and supply chain difficulties retreated from Kyiv and other captured areas in northeastern Ukraine in what the Kremlin described as a “goodwill gesture.”
During Moscow’s attempts to negotiate a swift resolution to the fighting in the early weeks, Belarus provided the venue for initial discussions between Russian and Ukrainian representatives. These negotiations later shifted to Istanbul but ultimately failed to reach an agreement.
As the fighting evolved into a prolonged conflict, Belarus has maintained a crucial role in backing Moscow’s military operations. Belarusian factories have manufactured vital components, including microchips and electronics, optical targeting systems, artillery shells, and heavy vehicles that transport Russian ballistic missiles.
Ukraine’s presidential envoy on sanctions policy, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, reported that debris from an Oreshnik ballistic missile that Russia launched at Ukraine on May 24 included microchips manufactured in Belarus. He called on Western partners to strengthen sanctions enforcement against Belarus.
Belarus has also supplied training facilities for Moscow’s forces, conducted joint military exercises, and offered its medical facilities to care for injured Russian personnel.
BELPOL, an organization of former military and law enforcement officials opposing Lukashenko, reported that Belarusian industries have become part of the Kremlin’s military apparatus. The group states that more than 500 Belarusian industrial facilities participate in weapons and ammunition production, military equipment repair, and logistical support.
“Lukashenko’s regime is quite seriously involved in the war,” BELPOL head Uladzimir Zhyhar told The Associated Press. “Lukashenko is helping Russia in every way he can.”
In the Gomel region bordering Ukraine, construction has started on a large firing range and barracks designed for substantial troop numbers, Zhyhar reported. Ukraine has been required to station many forces along the Belarus border, he noted, preventing them from engaging Russian troops along the more than 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) battle line.
Belarus, which also shares borders with NATO members Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, has accommodated some of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons. In December, Russia announced that its newest intermediate range nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system became operational in Belarus.
Russia has deployed a conventionally armed variant of the Oreshnik to attack Ukrainian targets three times — in November 2024 and again in January and earlier this month.
In 2024, the Kremlin updated its nuclear policy, extending the Russian nuclear shield to cover Belarus. Putin has stated that Moscow will maintain command of its nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus but would permit its partner to choose targets during a conflict.
Earlier this month, Russia and Belarus conducted extensive exercises that included delivering nuclear warheads to missile units and preparing for launches. During the exercise, a Belarusian missile team test-launched a nuclear-capable Iskander missile from a facility in southern Russia.
“Belarus lacks military sovereignty, and as soon as Moscow sees it as necessary for its strategy, Moscow will naturally use Belarus as a launchpad for a new invasion of Ukraine or some kind of armed conflict with NATO countries,” Zhyhar said, noting that Belarus offers a “very convenient springboard” for such an invasion.
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that his intelligence agencies had discovered Moscow recently intensified efforts to “draw Belarus much deeper into the war and launch additional aggressive operations precisely from Belarusian territory.” He indicated the target could be along the Chernihiv-Kyiv area or against a NATO country bordering Belarus.
Zelenskyy announced he directed the military and security agencies to prepare a response and reinforce northern defenses.
Lukashenko has rejected any aggressive intentions, stating Belarus will not join the conflict unless attacked.
Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s former defense minister and now secretary of its Security Council, also dismissed Zelenskyy’s assertion, characterizing it as a fear tactic to secure additional Western assistance for Kyiv.
However, indicating growing Western worry, French President Emmanuel Macron contacted Lukashenko on May 24 to highlight the dangers for Belarus of being pulled into the war, their first conversation since the invasion started. Lukashenko announced that next week he will receive a French representative for discussions on European security and possibilities of reducing EU sanctions.
Andrii Demchenko, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Border Guard Service, reported last week that while intelligence information suggests Russia has increasingly pressured Belarus to directly join the war, Ukrainian forces haven’t yet observed any accumulation of troops and weapons near the border.
Belarus’ opposition leader-in-exile, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, visited Kyiv last week and stressed that “Belarus must never again become a springboard for aggression.”
“Russian tanks must never again march through Belarus to Chernihiv, Zhitomir, Rivne, or Kyiv,” Tsikhanouskaya told AP. “Ukraine is fighting for itself and for all the peoples who have lived in the shadow of empire for too long. It is fighting for the right to live in peace. And the fate of my country, Belarus, also depends on Ukraine’s success.”
According to official information, Belarus’ military forces include 48,600 personnel, a small force compared with Russia’s 1.5 million. During wartime, Belarus is prepared to mobilize 290,000, but they would require weapons and training to become battle-ready.
“The Belarusian army is unfit for offensive action,” said Alexander Alesin, a Minsk-based military analyst. “An attack from Belarus would require … mobilizing up to 500,000 troops.”
That would mean removing all the men from the national economy and then finding arms for them, he said, adding: “I consider this option unlikely.”
Ukraine has constructed heavy fortifications along the border with Belarus and deployed mines that would easily halt any attempted invasion, he said.
“Even with a small force, the Ukrainians can easily defend themselves and inflict heavy losses on the Belarusian army,” Alesin said. “From a military perspective, it’s impossible to launch an attack from Belarusian territory without suffering heavy losses.”
Lukashenko is satisfied with Belarus’ role as a major supplier of military equipment and would strongly resist direct participation in the war, he added.
“The last thing Lukashenko wants is to fight, and he’ll cling to his current position at any cost, so he can avoid fighting while profiting handsomely from the war,” Alesin said.
