WASHINGTON — Despite the economic turbulence triggered by the ongoing Iran war, the U.S. job market is holding its ground. New federal data shows that job openings across the country remained at a robust 7.6 million in May, far exceeding analyst expectations of just 7 million openings.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the figures Tuesday, which also showed that layoffs increased somewhat during the month. Meanwhile, the number of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs — typically viewed as a signal that employees feel confident about finding new work — edged up only slightly.
The economic backdrop has been challenging. After the United States and Israel launched an attack on February 28th, Iran struck back by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global shipping passage through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows. That closure sent energy prices surging, adding more financial pressure on American families already struggling with the high cost of living.
Even so, the labor market has continued to recover from a difficult 2025. Over the first five months of this year, U.S. employers have been adding an average of nearly 114,000 jobs per month — a dramatic turnaround from 2025, when monthly job gains averaged just 9,700, the weakest hiring pace outside of a recession since 2002.
Analysts point to several factors that weighed on hiring last year, including high interest rates and uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s economic policies. This year, Trump’s tax cuts and the country’s status as an energy producer have helped cushion the blow from the conflict abroad.
All eyes now turn to Thursday, when the Labor Department is set to release its June jobs report. Economists anticipate it will show that employers across the public and private sectors added roughly 100,000 positions, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.
Experts note that the number of jobs needed each month to keep unemployment stable has dropped significantly. With baby boomers retiring in large numbers and fewer immigrants entering the workforce due to federal crackdown policies, there is less competition for available jobs. Economists suggest the so-called “break-even” hiring rate — the number of jobs needed just to keep unemployment from rising — could now be as low as zero per month, compared to roughly 150,000 a year ago.
