The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its ninth wind speed probability update for Tropical Storm Bertha at 3:00 p.m. UTC on Tuesday, July 21, 2026.
At the time of the report, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was positioned near latitude 29.3 North and longitude 86.3 West, with maximum sustained winds clocking in at approximately 50 knots — equivalent to 60 miles per hour or 95 kilometers per hour.
The report outlines the likelihood of sustained wind speeds reaching three key thresholds — 34 knots (39 mph), 50 knots (58 mph), and 64 knots (74 mph) — at various locations along the Gulf Coast over the coming five days.
According to the probability data, a grid point near 29.0 North, 87.0 West showed a 95 percent chance of experiencing at least 34-knot winds within the first 12-hour period, with a cumulative five-day probability of 99 percent. That same location carried a 23 percent onset probability for 50-knot winds and a 1 percent chance of reaching 64-knot winds.
Among named communities, Buras, Louisiana faced a 20 percent chance of tropical storm-force winds in the 12Z Wednesday to 00Z Thursday window, with a cumulative probability of 24 percent. New Orleans and Houma, Louisiana each showed a 6 percent onset probability for 34-knot winds during that same period.
Further west, Cameron, Louisiana carried a 14 percent chance of tropical storm-force winds during the 12Z Thursday to 12Z Friday window, along with a 3 percent probability of reaching 50-knot winds over the five-day period.
Texas communities including Galveston, Port Arthur, Houston, and Matagorda also appeared in the probability tables, with Galveston showing a 10 percent onset probability for 34-knot winds during the 12Z Thursday to 12Z Friday timeframe.
Probabilities for locations along the Florida Panhandle, including Panama City and Pensacola, remained low, with cumulative chances of tropical storm-force winds at 4 percent or less through the five-day forecast window.
The forecast was prepared by forecaster Reinhart at the National Hurricane Center.
