Former President Donald Trump continues his winning streak in Republican primary contests, recently backing Ken Paxton before his Tuesday runoff victory over Sen. John Cornyn in Texas.
However, Trump’s increasing control over the GOP may create challenges for winning November’s midterm elections, as Republicans must appeal to a wider voter base that has grown critical of the president’s second term and economic conditions.
The challenge grows more complex, according to Republican operatives, due to the former president’s casual approach to addressing Americans’ economic struggles, which have been worsened by Trump’s trade policies and his continuing conflict with Iran.
Republican strategist David Urban, a Trump ally, admitted the president’s strategy is creating difficulties for his party.
“It’s going to be a tough fall unless things dramatically change,” Urban said.
He cautioned that Trump must avoid a careless withdrawal from the Iran conflict to end a situation that has restricted global oil supplies and increased gas prices for Americans.
“I think the president wants to help,” he said, but “you do not want to give the Iranians a win just because of the midterms.”
Beyond higher prices resulting from Trump’s tariffs and Iran conflict, the president has consistently called affordability worries a “hoax.”
Trump suggested that gas price increases — rising more than 50% in the U.S. since Trump and Israel began attacking Iran — represent “peanuts.” He stated he doesn’t consider Americans’ personal finances “even a little bit” when considering Iran options, claiming that stopping the country from acquiring nuclear weapons remains his sole focus.
This occurs while Trump pressures Congress to authorize $1 billion for his White House ballroom project and approve $1.8 billion for restitution payments to people who claim they faced political prosecution — possibly including those who violently stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
This series of events creates challenges that Republicans in competitive House districts, Senate races, and statewide campaigns must address this fall.
“You keep the House and Senate by having a message, by dealing with the issues voters are clearly complaining about,” said Republican strategist Rick Tyler, a Trump critic. “The administration has utterly failed to do this.”
More than two weeks have passed since the Republican National Committee sent messaging guidance to supporters mentioning economic issues, according to documents reviewed by The Associated Press.
Last week’s only talking points focused on supporting Trump’s $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization fund.”
“Democrats and the fake-news media are deliberately ignoring the fact that this fund is not limited to Republicans or Trump supporters,” stated the May 23 message.
Two weeks prior, the RNC urged supporters to commend the president and his party for “delivering lower costs.”
The messaging overlooked rising gas costs but highlighted significant decreases in egg, school supply, and butter prices compared to last year.
“President Trump promised to lower prices, and he is doing just that,” the talking points stated.
Republicans started Trump’s second presidency holding a 220-215 House majority. They’ve improved their chances of maintaining control by redrawing congressional boundaries in multiple Republican-controlled states. Democrats remain optimistic about flipping sufficient seats to regain control.
Republicans maintain a larger 53-47 Senate majority. Leaders from both parties acknowledge the chamber’s control remains uncertain. Some Republicans criticize Trump for supporting candidates like Paxton, who has endured years of controversy and may be more susceptible in a general election against Democratic nominee James Talarico.
Viet Shelton, a spokesman for House Democrats’ campaign committee, said Trump’s redistricting efforts reveal his understanding of his party’s difficulties.
“They’ve given up on trying to win over voters fair and square, so they’re resorting to rigging the midterms through illegal gerrymanders and voter suppression,” Shelton said.
Democratic advisers report Trump’s challenges have altered dynamics in numerous races. Their target list of Republican-held House seats now encompasses many districts Trump won by substantial margins. In special and off-year elections since Trump’s second inauguration, Democrats have consistently exceeded their 2024 performance.
Voters should anticipate seeing Trump’s economic statements in Democratic advertisements this fall. Party operatives indicate their broader approach acknowledges the president’s populist appeal while arguing he and his Republican supporters have failed to deliver results.
In U.S. House districts in Iowa, this involves highlighting tariffs’ impact on agricultural economics and how the Iran conflict has raised diesel fuel and fertilizer costs. In Texas’s Rio Grande Valley, this means discussing how Trump’s immigration enforcement has disrupted the local economy in Latino communities.
Republican strategists express concern about Trump’s economic focus deficit and his team’s lack of transparency regarding campaign fund deployment.
The pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. possessed over $356 million at April’s end. Many Republican strategists report receiving no clear indication of Trump’s team’s spending plans for timing, location, and methods, according to multiple operatives speaking anonymously about private discussions.
They identify one positive development in James Blair, Trump’s political general, departing the White House to concentrate on midterm elections.
The White House declined to comment on the president’s strategy and midterm confidence.
Highlighting Republicans’ dilemma, Trump remains a fundraising powerhouse. He assisted House Republicans in collecting $36.8 million at a single fundraising dinner last month, setting a committee record.
Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Trump “puts House Republicans in the strongest possible position to defy history and win in November.”
Naturally, candidates must secure Republican nominations to participate in fall campaigns.
“The president has chosen to be aggressive in endorsing candidates he believes are the best advocates for his agenda and have been loyal to him,” Republican campaign veteran Chip Lake said.
Lake leads an independent expenditure effort supporting Georgia Republican Burt Jones, the Trump-endorsed candidate in a June 16 gubernatorial primary runoff.
“It’s difficult, if not impossible to win a primary in today’s environment if the president is working against you,” Lake said. Despite general election consequences, he added, independents and moderates “make up a very tiny, even minuscule portion of Republican primaries.”
