The National Hurricane Center in Miami released its seventh wind speed probability update for Tropical Storm Bertha at 3:00 a.m. Coordinated Universal Time on Tuesday, July 21, 2026.
At the time of the report, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was positioned near latitude 28.2 degrees north and longitude 85.9 degrees west. The storm’s maximum sustained winds were clocking in at approximately 35 knots, which equals about 40 miles per hour or 65 kilometers per hour.
The report outlines the probability that specific locations along the Gulf Coast will experience sustained wind speeds reaching at least 39 mph (tropical storm force), 58 mph, or 74 mph (hurricane force) during various time windows over the next five days.
Among the areas with the highest cumulative probabilities of tropical storm-force winds is a Gulf of Mexico grid point near 29.0 degrees north and 87.0 degrees west, which carries a 5-day cumulative probability of 81 percent. That same location has a 19 percent cumulative chance of seeing winds reach 50 knots or higher.
Along the coastline, Pensacola, Florida carries a 7 percent cumulative chance of tropical storm-force winds. Buras, Louisiana shows a 26 percent cumulative probability, while New Orleans and Houma, Louisiana each sit at 12 percent over the full five-day period.
Further west, Cameron, Louisiana has an 11 percent cumulative probability, and Galveston, Texas shows a 6 percent cumulative chance of tropical storm-force conditions developing by the end of the forecast window.
Inland locations such as Baton Rouge, Louisiana and Lafayette, Louisiana carry lower but non-negligible probabilities, at 5 percent and 4 percent respectively.
The probabilities are expressed both as onset chances — the likelihood of winds beginning during a specific time window — and as cumulative chances from Tuesday through the end of the forecast period. Values shown as “X” represent probabilities of less than one percent.
This advisory was prepared by forecaster Pasch at the National Hurricane Center.
