The National Hurricane Center in Miami released its fifteenth wind speed probability advisory for Tropical Storm Bertha at 3:00 a.m. Coordinated Universal Time on Thursday, July 23, 2026.
At the time of the advisory, Bertha’s center was positioned near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 91.1 West, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 40 knots — equivalent to 45 miles per hour or 75 kilometers per hour.
The advisory outlines the likelihood of tropical-storm-force winds of at least 34 knots (39 mph) reaching a number of locations along the Gulf Coast over the next five days. The data reflects both the probability of winds arriving during specific time windows and the overall cumulative chance of those winds occurring.
Among the locations facing the highest cumulative probabilities of tropical-storm-force winds are Buras, Louisiana, and a Gulf forecast area near 28.0 North, 91.0 West — both showing a 99 percent cumulative chance. Houma, Louisiana, carries a 98 percent cumulative probability, while Morgan City, Louisiana, sits at 90 percent.
New Orleans, Louisiana, shows a 24 percent cumulative chance of reaching tropical-storm-force wind thresholds, while Baton Rouge, Louisiana, carries just a 3 percent cumulative probability.
Along the Texas coast, Galveston faces a 58 percent cumulative chance of tropical-storm-force winds, along with a 5 percent cumulative probability of reaching 50-knot winds (58 mph). Freeport, Texas, shows a 54 percent cumulative probability of tropical-storm-force conditions, and Matagorda, Texas, carries a 49 percent cumulative chance, with a 4 percent cumulative probability of 50-knot winds.
Cameron, Louisiana, shows a 42 percent cumulative probability of tropical-storm-force winds and a 3 percent cumulative chance of 50-knot conditions. Port O’Connor, Texas, carries a 38 percent cumulative probability of tropical-storm-force winds.
Further inland and down the coast, Houston, Texas, shows a 14 percent cumulative chance, while Corpus Christi, Texas, sits at 8 percent. San Antonio, Texas, carries a 6 percent cumulative probability of tropical-storm-force winds during the forecast period.
This advisory was prepared by Forecaster Pasch at the National Hurricane Center.
