The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its tenth wind speed probability update for Tropical Storm Bertha at 9:00 p.m. UTC on Tuesday, July 21, 2026.
At the time of the advisory, the storm’s center was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 87.2 West — placing it over the Gulf of Mexico. Bertha was packing maximum sustained winds of approximately 50 knots, which equals 60 miles per hour or 95 kilometers per hour.
Forecasters calculated the likelihood of tropical storm-force winds — sustained speeds of at least 39 mph — reaching a wide range of Gulf Coast communities over the coming five days. The probabilities reflect both the chance of winds arriving during a specific time window and the overall cumulative chance through the forecast period.
Among the locations facing notable cumulative probabilities of tropical storm-force winds, Buras, Louisiana stood out with a 40 percent cumulative chance. Houma, Louisiana showed an 18 percent cumulative probability, while New Orleans carried an 11 percent cumulative chance. Cameron, Louisiana reached a 24 percent cumulative probability over the five-day window.
Further west along the coast, Galveston, Texas showed a 22 percent cumulative probability of tropical storm-force winds, along with a 3 percent cumulative chance of winds reaching at least 58 mph. Houston and Austin, Texas each carried lower but notable probabilities as well.
Closer to the storm’s position, a Gulf of Mexico grid point near 29.0 North, 87.0 West showed a 99 percent cumulative probability of tropical storm-force winds, along with a 13 percent cumulative chance of winds reaching at least 50 knots.
The advisory was prepared by forecaster Reinhart. Residents along the Gulf Coast are encouraged to monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center as Bertha continues to develop.
