The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its third wind speed probability advisory for Tropical Depression Two at 3:00 a.m. Coordinated Universal Time on Monday, July 20, 2026.
At the time of the advisory, the center of Tropical Depression Two was positioned near latitude 28.0 North and longitude 85.1 West. The storm’s maximum sustained winds were recorded at approximately 25 knots — equivalent to 30 miles per hour or 45 kilometers per hour.
The advisory outlines the probability of sustained wind speeds reaching specific thresholds at various locations over the next five days. Those thresholds are 34 knots (39 mph), 50 knots (58 mph), and 64 knots (74 mph).
Among the locations with the highest cumulative five-day probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds of at least 34 knots are several Gulf Coast communities. A grid point near 29.0 North, 87.0 West carries a cumulative 47 percent chance of reaching 34-knot winds. Cameron, Louisiana shows a 20 percent cumulative chance, while Galveston, Texas carries a 19 percent cumulative probability. Buras, Louisiana stands at 14 percent, and Matagorda, Texas is listed at 15 percent.
For higher-end winds of 50 knots or more, probabilities remain low but are not zero. The grid point near 29.0 North, 87.0 West carries a 9 percent cumulative chance of reaching 50-knot winds. Galveston, Texas has a 4 percent cumulative probability at that threshold.
Hurricane-force winds of 64 knots or greater carry very small but noted probabilities at a few locations, including the grid point near 29.0 North, 87.0 West and Cameron, Louisiana, each at a 2 percent and 1 percent cumulative chance respectively.
Apalachicola, Florida carries a 17 percent cumulative five-day chance of tropical-storm-force winds. Panama City, Florida is listed at 20 percent, while Pensacola, Florida shows a 6 percent cumulative probability.
Further west along the Gulf Coast, New Orleans, Louisiana has a 7 percent cumulative chance, Houma, Louisiana sits at 11 percent, and Baton Rouge, Louisiana is listed at 4 percent. Lake Charles, Louisiana carries a 5 percent cumulative probability, and Port Arthur, Texas is at 6 percent.
The advisory was prepared by forecaster Blake. Probabilities listed as “X” indicate a chance of less than 1 percent.
