It has been eight years since a Texas attorney general candidate ran television ads showing security camera footage of Ken Paxton pocketing an expensive pen that was not his. Four years ago, another challenger put up billboards calling Paxton “a crook” alongside a mugshot tied to his securities fraud charges. And earlier this year, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn warned that “judgment day is coming” as he fought off a Republican primary challenge from Paxton.
All three lost. Now Democrat James Talarico — who defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett in a costly and hard-fought Democratic primary — is attempting what they could not: unseat Paxton in one of the most closely watched U.S. Senate contests in the nation.
“The guy’s ability to take shots and just keep moving on and stay in elected office is unlike anything I’ve ever seen in my career, in 25 years of running campaigns,” said Ash Wright, who served as a senior adviser to one of Paxton’s earlier Republican challengers.
Paxton has never been convicted of a crime, and he has built his political staying power by championing conservative legal fights over immigration, abortion, and transgender issues in a state where Republicans dominate. Much like President Donald Trump, he has long cast himself as a victim of political persecution.
Former opponents and roughly half a dozen campaign strategists who worked against Paxton cautioned that voters may be worn out by scandals they have been hearing about for years, particularly in an era when strong partisan loyalty has made voters unusually forgiving of candidates’ wrongdoing.
Talarico’s team, however, has studied those past races and is crafting its own strategy — one that tries to tie Paxton to a wider culture of corruption that, they argue, has left ordinary Texans behind.
Paxton’s campaign pushed back, suggesting Talarico’s attacks are designed to distract from what it described as his “out-of-touch views.”
“Every time a fighter, like President Donald Trump and now Ken Paxton, stands up to the permanent political class, even after they are completely acquitted of wrongdoing, people like James Talarico continue pushing the same accusations and claiming corruption,” said Paxton campaign spokesperson Madison Cercy.
Paxton was first elected Texas attorney general in 2014. When Democratic lawyer Justin Nelson ran against him in 2018, he centered his campaign on Paxton’s securities fraud indictment and mocked him for picking up another lawyer’s $1,000 pen at a courthouse security checkpoint. One ad ended with the line: “Vote Justin Nelson for Texas attorney general. He will fight on behalf of all Texans. And he won’t steal your pen.”
Nelson argued his strategy was working, pointing to Paxton’s narrow 3.6-percentage-point victory in a year when the Republican candidate for governor won by more than 13 points. Nelson’s campaign spent roughly $6.5 million — about half of what Paxton’s side spent.
“My message was working,” Nelson said. “I just needed to go louder and longer.”
In 2022, Paxton faced a Republican primary challenge from George P. Bush, the Texas land commissioner and grandson and nephew of two former U.S. presidents. At the time, the securities fraud case remained unresolved, and Paxton was also under federal investigation for allegedly abusing his office to benefit an Austin real estate developer, accepting bribes, and retaliating against whistleblower employees.
Paxton responded by positioning himself as a Trump-aligned Republican and painting Bush as a product of a privileged political dynasty. Organizations supporting Paxton spent more than $20 million — roughly twice what Bush and his allies spent. After a runoff, Paxton defeated Bush by 34 percentage points.
In the general election, Paxton faced Democratic civil rights lawyer Rochelle Garza from Brownsville. Her campaign compiled a 300-page opposition research file on Paxton, but she said it was hard to know how to use it when voters had already heard so much about his past.
“The amount of potential hits on Paxton can make message discipline challenging,” Garza said.
Paxton campaigned as the leading legal opponent of President Joe Biden, filing a series of lawsuits against Biden’s administration on immigration, abortion, and gender policy. Overwhelmingly outspent, Garza lost by roughly 10 percentage points.
More controversy followed. Paxton and his wife separated, and she later filed for divorce “on biblical grounds.” He was impeached by the Texas House, though the state Senate acquitted him in 2023 and he remained in office. The long-running securities fraud case concluded in 2024, with Paxton ordered to pay nearly $300,000 in restitution.
Despite all of it, Paxton has maintained a loyal following among Republican voters. David and Nancy Lapp, a retired couple from the small town of Wolfforth, described him as a conservative fighter who has been unfairly targeted.
“He’s had his share of scandals, and almost all of them have, so it’s not necessarily disqualifying anymore,” said David Lapp, 76. “He’s a flawed person, no doubt about it, but he fights for traditional American ideals.” He added that “nowadays, as long as you’re not in jail, they’ll elect you.”
Biden’s Justice Department decided in 2024 not to prosecute Paxton after a years-long federal investigation. Paxton then turned his sights on Cornyn’s Senate seat. Though Cornyn and his allies spent more than $90 million blanketing the state with advertising, Trump endorsed Paxton after the race went to a runoff, and Paxton won decisively.
The day after the Republican runoff, Talarico pledged at a Houston rally to “prosecute the case” against Paxton, calling him “the most corrupt politician in America.”
Talarico has since raised a new issue involving Paxton’s office — specifically, how it handled a child sexual abuse case this year. The attorney general’s office took over a felony case against Waco lawyer Adam Hoffman after the county district attorney stepped aside due to a potential conflict of interest. Following a hung jury in an earlier trial, Hoffman accepted an offer in April from state lawyers to plead guilty to a misdemeanor charge. Prosecutors noted the victim did not wish to testify a second time. Hoffman served 60 days in jail and was not required to register as a sex offender.
Talarico contends the plea deal is evidence that Paxton allows preferential treatment at the expense of everyday Texans.
“He is everything that’s wrong with this broken, corrupt political system,” Talarico said at a rally in Del Rio last week. “This is the rot at the core of this broken political system. It’s why we can’t get ahead, no matter how hard we work, no matter how much we save, because the system is rigged against us.”
In terms of campaign finances, Talarico reported $21.5 million on hand last week compared to Paxton’s $7.5 million. Nelson, who ran against Paxton in 2018, said that financial edge could allow Talarico to reach voters in ways previous challengers could not.
“Even a little bit more money would have helped me,” Nelson said. “I think James has a legitimate shot.”
