DALLAS — Texas Republicans are preparing for what could be a brutal and expensive battle ahead.
Veteran Senator John Cornyn and his supporters invested close to $70 million to make it through Tuesday’s initial Republican primary contest. He maintained a narrow lead over Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general known for his conservative activism, as vote counting continued Wednesday.
The two candidates will now face off in a May 26 runoff election that party officials worry could prove even more contentious and costly than the initial race.
“It’s judgment day for Ken Paxton,” Cornyn declared Tuesday evening.
However, it’s uncertain whether any amount of negative campaigning can derail Paxton — who has faced ongoing allegations involving corruption and personal misconduct — particularly as he presents himself as the type of Make America Great Again champion that President Donald Trump requires in the nation’s capital.
Paxton spoke defiantly to several hundred supporters gathered at a Dallas hotel ballroom, a stark contrast to Cornyn’s smaller media availability.
“We just sent a message, loud and clear, to Washington,” he declared. “We are not going to go quietly, and we are not going to let you buy the seat.”
GOP officials are concerned about the runoff because this 83-day campaign period coincides with what political strategists from both parties recognize as an unusually strong opportunity for Democrats to capture a Texas Senate seat — something that hasn’t occurred in almost 40 years.
Democrats selected state Representative James Talarico as their nominee, whom Republicans quickly labeled a far-left radical — despite privately viewing the 36-year-old progressive Christian as a more formidable general election opponent than his primary rival, Representative Jasmine Crockett.
This Texas race unfolds as Trump works to preserve congressional control during his remaining two years in office. While Republicans feel more optimistic about maintaining their Senate majority compared to the House, a competitive Texas contest could complicate their strategy or drain resources needed for tighter races in states like North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska.
Washington Republican leadership maintains that Cornyn has the superior opportunity, particularly after his first-place finish in Tuesday’s primary, with Representative Wesley Hunt placing a distant third before conceding. Cornyn’s team suggested the runoff would be unnecessary without “Wesley Hunt’s vanity campaign.”
“Paxton’s problems aren’t just an issue in a Republican primary; they also threaten to put the Senate seat at risk due to his lack of strength against Democrat nominee Talarico,” stated a memo from Cornyn’s campaign.
However, Paxton and his supporters show no indication of retreating.
“The D.C. establishment has done its job: it rallied around its wounded incumbent, opened the fundraising spigot, and flooded the airwaves. But the results, the data, and the reality on the ground all point to the same conclusion: John Cornyn has no viable path to the Republican nomination,” wrote the pro-Paxton Lone Star PAC in their memo. “Cornyn should suspend his campaign, concede the nomination to Ken Paxton, and refuse to allow another $100+ million in Republican resources to be burned in a race that is already decided.”
The sole individual who might prevent this internal party warfare, or at least minimize its damage, is Trump. However, the president has refused to back any candidate in the primary, calling all of them “great,” and it remains uncertain whether his position will shift for the runoff.
Without Trump’s endorsement, Cornyn made clear he would advocate for himself. He informed reporters that Paxton would represent “a dead weight at the top of the ticket for Republicans” come November.
“I’ve worked for decades to build the Republican Party, both here in Texas and nationally,” Cornyn stated. “I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton to risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years.”
Cornyn will encounter significant fundraising challenges, having already exhausted substantial resources in the primary’s first phase. Campaign staff indicated he has scheduled some small fundraising events but nothing immediately following this week’s voting as he returns to the capital.
Additionally, Paxton’s supporters believe the political environment will favor the attorney general.
“The casual and moderate Republican voters who are most likely to support an establishment incumbent are the least likely to return for a runoff,” noted the Lone Star PAC memo. “The committed conservative activists who form Paxton’s base are the most likely to show up.”
