Tesla is expected to announce a 5% increase in vehicle deliveries for the second quarter when it releases its figures on Thursday, with much of that growth coming from a resurgence in European demand.
According to a poll of 20 analysts by Visible Alpha, Wall Street is forecasting Tesla will deliver approximately 402,780 electric vehicles during the April-through-June period. That would represent a 4.9% increase compared to the same quarter last year and a 12.5% jump from the previous three months.
Deutsche Bank projects the biggest regional growth will come from Europe, where deliveries could climb by nearly 40% year-over-year. China is expected to see a modest 3% increase, while North America is forecast to fall 21% compared to the prior year.
The European rebound follows a difficult stretch for Tesla in the region throughout 2025, when sales dropped sharply amid public backlash over CEO Elon Musk’s far-right political comments. Now, analysts say surging fuel prices — driven in part by the ongoing Iran war — are steering European consumers back toward battery-powered vehicles, both new and used.
In the United States, Tesla continues to face headwinds after the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit that was established during the Biden administration expired in September. Demand in China, meanwhile, is expected to hold steady.
Analysts also point to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) advanced driver assistance technology as a potential catalyst for further European growth. The software has only been approved for use in a small number of European countries so far, but a broader rollout could follow a European Union vote expected later this year.
To help stimulate overall sales, Tesla has introduced lower-priced versions of its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles over the past year. The company does not publicly break down its delivery numbers by region. Several European nations are also expected to release their own monthly and quarterly auto sales data on Wednesday.
