NEW YORK – Wall Street analysts anticipate the S&P 500 will climb roughly 10% from current levels through the remainder of 2026, fueled by robust corporate profits and consistent economic expansion, even as concerns linger over President Trump’s trade approach and artificial intelligence market disruption, a new Reuters survey reveals.
Financial professionals surveyed expect the benchmark index to reach approximately 7,500 by December’s end, representing a 9.7% increase from Monday’s closing price of 6,837.75. The projection comes from polling 44 market strategists, analysts and investment managers over the past week.
This latest prediction exceeds the target established in Reuters’ November survey.
Should the S&P 500 finish 2026 in positive territory, it would represent the fourth consecutive year of market advances.
MARKET STRENGTH EVIDENT
Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, explained the optimistic outlook: “It’s very difficult right now to point to where there’s a lot of weakness.” Wells Fargo’s year-end target of 7,500 reflects positive expectations for American corporate earnings and economic performance, Samana noted.
However, Samana identified potential challenges, including “lingering concern around inflation, and what that means for the Fed.”
The Federal Reserve maintained current interest rate levels last month, pointing to reduced threats to both price stability and job markets. Market participants have been anticipating at least a quarter-point rate reduction by mid-year.
When asked about potential market corrections, nine out of 13 survey participants indicated an S&P 500 pullback within the next three months appears probable.
Marc Dizard, chief investment officer at Huntington Wealth Management, characterized such a correction as “healthy,” while maintaining his year-end forecast of 7,650, approximately 12% above present levels.
Current market valuation shows the S&P 500 trading at 21.6 times forward earnings, down from 22.5 at 2026’s start, according to LSEG data.
TECHNOLOGY SECTOR UNCERTAINTY
Following a robust 2025 that delivered roughly 16% gains for the S&P 500, markets have shown mixed performance during 2026’s opening months. Investors have rapidly sold shares in companies perceived as vulnerable to artificial intelligence disruption, with software stocks declining approximately 23% since year-end.
Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management in Fairfield, Connecticut, expects AI-related equities to be “remaining out of favor for the majority of the year.” However, he added, “that out-of-favor view will eventually lead participants back to the ‘fold’ as investors start to see these AI names as having gotten ‘cheaper.’”
Despite current headwinds, technology companies are projected to lead profit growth, with analysts forecasting 33% earnings expansion in 2026. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is anticipated at 14.8% compared to 14.4% in 2025, LSEG data shows.
Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan, noted: “Overall, technology should be a profitable sector and that offers some support even though there’s some near-term volatility.”
Market professionals also pointed to uncertainty surrounding Trump’s recent trade policy announcements.
Last Friday, the Supreme Court determined Trump exceeded presidential powers by implementing reciprocal tariffs under emergency economic legislation. Subsequently, Trump established a 10% levy on all foreign imports, threatening to increase it to 15%. This tariff remains temporary, requiring Congressional authorization for extension beyond 150 days.
Survey participants additionally highlighted U.S.-Iran tensions as a potential risk factor that could drive oil prices higher.
The poll projects the Dow Jones Industrial Average will conclude the year at 52,000. The Dow finished Monday’s session at 48,804.06.
