Leaders from a Russian-dominated economic alliance issued a stern warning to Armenia on Friday, threatening potential suspension from the trade bloc due to the nation’s pursuit of European Union membership, as ongoing tensions between Moscow and Armenian officials continue to escalate.
During a summit held in Kazakhstan’s capital of Astana, Russian President Vladimir Putin joined with leaders from Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to express concerns that Armenia’s European Union membership pursuit poses “significant risks” to their economic security. The four officials directed their staff to compile a December report examining “possible consequences of suspending” Armenia from the alliance.
The leaders additionally called for Armenia to conduct a referendum allowing citizens to choose between pursuing EU membership or remaining within the Eurasian Economic Union, a trade partnership established in 2015 that facilitates unrestricted movement of goods, capital and workers. Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has previously dismissed calls for such a vote.
This threat emerges just over one week prior to Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections, where Pashinyan, who has held power since 2018, aims to maintain his position.
Following a U.S.-mediated agreement last year that concluded decades of conflict with Azerbaijan, Armenia has progressively worked to strengthen relationships with both the United States and European Union. Pashinyan has announced plans to pursue EU membership while his administration has halted the nation’s involvement in the Moscow-controlled security alliance known as the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Armenia’s pivot toward Western nations has frustrated the Kremlin. Putin has cautioned Pashinyan that his nation would experience severe economic harm if it continues pursuing EU membership. Recently, Moscow threatened to halt deliveries of discounted natural gas to Armenia and prohibited imports of Armenian brandy, fruits and vegetables, representing part of the Kremlin’s strategy to influence Armenia’s election results.
Putin has stated that Armenia cannot simultaneously belong to both the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union. During Friday’s meeting, he cautioned that Armenia might lose as much as 14% of its Gross Domestic Product if it withdraws from the Moscow-controlled alliance.
Pashinyan has responded to Putin’s threats by maintaining that Armenia can currently balance its Eurasian Economic Union membership while building cooperation with the EU.
During Friday’s remarks, Putin also drew parallels between the current disagreements with Armenia and events in Ukraine, where attempts to establish an association agreement with the EU resulted in the removal of its pro-Moscow president, Russia’s takeover of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, and Moscow’s backing of separatist forces in eastern Ukraine that began that same year. In February 2022, Putin launched military operations in Ukraine, initiating Europe’s largest armed conflict since World War II.
