Financial markets are buzzing after traders made another massive, well-timed wager on oil prices just moments before a major political announcement.
On Tuesday, investors placed bets totaling $430 million that crude oil prices would fall — and they did so merely 15 minutes before President Donald Trump declared he would indefinitely extend a ceasefire with Iran.
This suspicious timing represents the fourth instance this year where enormous oil market wagers have been made right before significant Iran-related announcements. Combined March bets reached $500 million, while April’s total wagering has hit approximately $2.1 billion.
The Tuesday trades occurred between 1954 and 1956 GMT, involving 4,260 selling contracts valued at $430 million based on current Brent futures pricing, according to LSEG market data. Trump made his ceasefire announcement at 2010 GMT.
These transactions happened during post-settlement trading hours, when market activity typically remains extremely low. The Brent oil market officially closes at 1830 GMT.
While the initial trades caused only modest price movement — dropping from $100.91 to $100.66 per barrel — Trump’s subsequent announcement triggered a sharp decline. Brent crude futures plummeted to $96.83 within one minute of the ceasefire news. By Wednesday at 1200 GMT, prices had recovered to $99.2 per barrel.
Similar patterns emerged throughout recent weeks. On March 23, anonymous traders placed $500 million in bearish oil bets just 15 minutes before Trump announced delays to planned strikes on Iranian power facilities. April 7 saw $950 million in wagers placed hours ahead of Trump’s two-week ceasefire declaration.
Most recently, on April 17, traders bet $760 million on declining oil prices roughly 20 minutes before Iran’s foreign minister announced via social media that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open for commercial shipping.
Federal oversight has taken notice of these remarkable coincidences. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has launched an investigation into multiple oil futures transactions, including the March 23 and April 7 trades, that occurred immediately before Trump’s Iran policy announcements, according to a source familiar with the probe who spoke on April 15.
Representatives from the Intercontinental Exchange, which operates the ICE trading platform, declined to provide comment on the matter.
