FRANKFURT – A new analysis from the European Central Bank reveals that American consumers and importing businesses bear most of the financial burden from trade tariffs, while overseas exporters absorb only minimal costs.
The research, published Monday in the ECB’s Economic Bulletin, examined the impact of widespread tariffs implemented by the United States on numerous trading partners during the previous year. The findings contradict earlier predictions from the Trump administration that foreign exporters would shoulder the expense.
“Exporters to the United States are absorbing only a small fraction of higher tariff-related costs,” the ECB’s study said. “Their costs are falling mostly on domestic importers and consumers.”
According to the bank’s findings, American consumers currently bear approximately one-third of tariff-related expenses. However, this proportion could climb beyond 50% over time as U.S. companies reach their limit for absorbing additional costs internally.
The research indicates that American businesses would ultimately handle roughly 40% of increased tariff expenses in the long run.
European exporters face challenges as well, since the study projects substantial decreases in import volumes due to tariff implementation. The analysis determined that for products still being traded despite tariffs, each 10% tariff increase leads to a 4.3% drop in import quantities.
