Five years ago, the West came dangerously close to a major diplomatic rupture with NATO ally Turkey when 10 ambassadors jointly demanded the release of a man they considered a political prisoner — a move that so enraged President Tayyip Erdogan that he threatened to expel them from the country.
After two tense days in 2021, both sides pulled back from the edge. The U.S., French, German, Canadian and other envoys issued statements aimed at smoothing things over, and Erdogan declared they would exercise more caution going forward.
And that is exactly what they have done.
In the years since — and particularly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine left European nations feeling strategically vulnerable — Western governments have largely stopped publicly challenging Turkey’s track record on rights and civil liberties. Instead, they have focused on deepening security relationships with the regionally powerful nation, which is also a major arms exporter.
That diplomatic shift will be front and center when the leaders of all 32 NATO member nations gather in Ankara on July 7 and 8 for a major summit.
According to Western and Turkish diplomats involved in planning the event, the leaders are not anticipated to speak out against an extraordinary legal offensive targeting Turkey’s primary opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP). That crackdown has included the imprisonment of the party’s presidential candidate, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who is widely regarded as Erdogan’s chief political rival.
Some critics of Erdogan’s government argue that the West’s relative quiet is giving the government room to slide further toward authoritarianism, while leaving Turkey’s opposition isolated and abandoning NATO’s core commitments to democracy and the rule of law.
“It remains important for the West to continue to comment on the degradation of democratic institutions in Turkey because the course is not irrevocably set, Turkey is not beyond the pale,” said David Satterfield, a former U.S. ambassador to Ankara.
“It’s important that Turks hear others talking about their system in this way,” Satterfield, who now serves as director of the Baker Institute for Public Policy, told Reuters.
Erdogan’s office did not respond when asked for a reaction to those views.
Satterfield pushed back against the idea that speaking up about human rights in Turkey had damaged the core working relationship between the U.S. and Turkey. He also said that the approach taken during President Donald Trump’s second term — avoiding talk of democratic values altogether — had not actually improved relations either.
Satterfield was among the 10 Western ambassadors whom Erdogan briefly moved to declare “persona non grata” in 2021, after they collectively called for the release of jailed philanthropist Osman Kavala. The ambassadors said his case was doing harm to Turkish democracy.
Kavala has now been imprisoned for nearly nine years and faces a potential life sentence on charges that he attempted to overthrow the government — allegations he denies. The European Court of Human Rights has ruled that he and others involved in the case should be freed, citing insufficient evidence, and concluded that his continued detention is meant to silence him.
Erdogan’s ruling AK Party, which has held power for 23 years, dismisses criticism of its democratic record and rejects any notion that the courts are being used for political purposes, maintaining that the judiciary operates independently.
Over the past two years, hundreds of elected CHP officials and members have been imprisoned and the party’s leader has been removed from his position — actions the CHP describes as a judicial coup.
Ahead of the NATO summit, rights organizations have raised alarms about additional restrictions. Dozens of journalists from independent Turkish media have been denied press credentials to cover the event, and authorities have detained more than 200 people, citing security concerns.
Erdogan’s office declined to comment on the denied media accreditations. NATO said it looks to the host country for guidance on such matters. When asked whether the alliance intends to raise human rights issues at the summit, a NATO official pointed to a previous statement on the accreditation matter, noting that in-person press coverage was considered very important. The U.S. embassy in Ankara did not immediately respond to questions about any change in its approach toward Turkey.
Few Western governments have spoken out about the crackdown on the CHP. Some Western diplomats argue that open criticism of Ankara accomplishes little in terms of slowing democratic backsliding, and say they prefer to raise concerns through private channels with Turkish officials.
The summit will mark Trump’s first visit to Turkey as president. He is also expected to hold a one-on-one meeting with Erdogan, whom he has repeatedly referred to as a friend — a reflection of what observers describe as the warmest U.S.-Turkish relationship in years.
Turkey is hoping the summit will showcase unity within the alliance and open doors to expanded defense industry partnerships. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte indicated that deals worth tens of billions of dollars would be announced at the gathering.
Alliance members increasingly view Turkey — which fields NATO’s second-largest military and is a top exporter of armed drones — as a critical barrier against Russian aggression along the alliance’s southeastern edge. That elevated status comes despite some past friction, including Turkey’s delay of Sweden and Finland’s membership bids between 2022 and 2023, and its relatively friendly ties with Moscow.
Western allies are now signaling they have “given up on values to an extent and prefer a transactional relationship … knowing that Turkey is indispensable for the defence of Europe,” said Karol Wasilewski, head of Turkey, Caucasus and Central Asia at the Warsaw-based Center for Eastern Studies. He added that Ankara recognizes that any Western criticism — including over the opposition crackdown — will be muted and “won’t translate into actions.”
